The positive news for the Eagles is that after a low point of the season in their loss to the Las Vegas Raiders, things have turned around.
They posted their widest margin of victory of the season against Detroit. They played right with, and nearly beat, the Los Angeles Chargers. The arrow, after pointing down most of the season, is pointing up.
That is not necessarily the case for Jalen Hurts.
Although there is no doubt Hurts is enjoying the team playing better, the reality is it has come at the expense of his involvement in the offense. After posting at least 23 pass attempts in the first seven games, and topping 34 in five of those games, Hurts has attempted a combined 31 attempts in the last two games. He threw the ball just 14 time against the Lions and followed that up with 17 last Sunday in their loss to the Chargers.
With the ball spending the majority of the time on the ground, instead of through the air, the Eagles have scored 44 and 27 points, two of their four highest point outcomes of the season.
They might have to change against Denver.
The Broncos enter this Sunday’s game sixth in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game, giving up an average of just 98.3. Although their per attempt average, 4.2 yards, falls to 12th in the league, they give up just 3.8 yards-per-attempt at home — good for 4th best in the NFL. Pro Football Focus ranks them as the 9th best rushing defense in the NFL.
The Broncos strong run defense doesn’t mean the Eagles should give up on running the ball. They should definitely stay committed to it. They have a strong run-blocking offensive line and running backs Jordan Howard and Boston Scott are playing well. Add in Hurts’ ability to make plays on the ground and the Eagles should try to dictate the game by running it, not concede going in that they won’t be able to.
There is a chance, however, the game plan from the last two weekends won’t work. They might not be able to move it on the ground. The running game might not be able to carry the offense.
If they can’t run the ball, they are going to have to put the offense on Hurts and the passing game — and if they do, Hurts is going to have a huge chance to show he can carry the load.
Early on in the season the offense didn’t move as well when they had to pass it consistently. In today’s NFL that is a problem. Justin Herbert showed the Eagles that last Sunday. Running the ball is great, but passing the ball wins in the NFL. The rules are set up for the passing game to succeed. That is especially true against the Broncos.
The Broncos come into this Sunday’s game with the 20th ranked pass defense according to Pro Football Focus. They should be without cornerback Patrick Surtain, who has a knee injury and missed practice all week. He is listed as questionable, but not expected to play, leaving the Broncos without their top cornerback.
While they still have talent in the secondary — especially with Justin Simmons at safety — the Eagles would seem to have a better chance to move the ball through the air than on the ground against the Broncos. The game plan can include the running game, and it should, but if Nick Sirianni and the staff believe in Hurts they will prioritize the passing game against the Broncos. That is what a team that believed they can pass the ball would do heading into the matchup.
If Hurts can get the job done the Eagles have a chance to win the game, and if they win, their playoff hopes stay alive. More importantly for Hurts, however, it will be a big check mark that he hasn’t checked off yet this season — throwing the team to a win.
Ultimately, that is what Sunday is about for Hurts. Showing that if they have to, the Eagles can put the offense on his back and he can move the ball consistently through the air.
If Hurts can have a strong game passing the ball it will increase his chances of locking down the quarterback job longterm, which is more important for this franchise than the outcome of the game.
If Hurts can’t move the offense in the passing game, however, it is only going to reiterate the idea that the teams has looked their best the last two weeks because they have taken the ball out of Hurts’ hands.
Hurt is going to have to show at some point that he can throw the team to a win if he wants to lock down the starting job moving forward.
Sunday is a big chance for him to do just that.
You can reach Eliot Shorr-Parks on Twitter at @EliotShorrParks or email him at esp@94wip.com!