We're heading into this weekend with a 28-24 record against the spread on our NBA picks. Here are our favorite plays over the next few days:
Knicks (-1.5, 222.5) @ Hornets
Nov. 12, 7 p.m.
A year ago, the Knicks engineered one of the biggest success stories of the NBA behind a tenacious defense. This season, it's all about getting buckets. New York is scoring 111.1 points per 100 possessions - fifth in the league - but ranks fifth-worst in defensive rating (110.3) through its first 12 games.
It's been an even more exaggerated split for the Hornets, who rank second in points per contest (114.5) and dead last in points allowed (117.5), surrendering 3.3 more points per game than the next-closest team. It should come as no surprise that Charlotte owns the NBA's best record to the over (9-4), which it should extend in a matchup that clearly favors scoring.
Pick: Over 222.5
Mavericks (-2.5, 218) @ Spurs
Nov. 12, 8:30 p.m.
We've been fading the Mavericks at every turn this campaign, and they've rewarded us with a 3-8 ATS record, which includes four ATS losses in their last five games. The club's overall record (7-4 straight up) might be the most misleading in the league - Dallas' net rating (-3.1) is the second-worst of any team with a winning record and below six sides that have a losing record.
Among those six is San Antonio. The team ranks 10th in net rating (+2.3) thanks to a top-10 defense and a string of close defeats, which includes a one-point loss to the Mavericks on Nov. 3 - one of the Spurs' seven ATS wins in 11 tries. That was only Dallas' fifth victory in its last 25 trips to San Antonio, and until this squad shows more life on offense, there's little reason to bet on the Mavs as a road favorite.
Pick: Spurs +2.5
76ers @ Pacers (TBD)
Nov. 13, 7 p.m.
The last time Joel Embiid took the court, the 76ers were riding a six-game win streak after vanquishing the Bulls on the road. Things haven't been nearly as smooth in his three-game absence - Philly has lost all three contests by a combined 22 points and also lost the rebounding battle in each one.
That doesn't bode well ahead of Saturday's matchup with the Pacers, who rank third in rebounding rate (52.5%) behind the frontcourt duo of Domantas Sabonis (11.2 rebounds per game) and Myles Turner (8.5). Even another 20-rebound effort from Andre Drummond likely won't be enough to offset the mismatch down low.
Pick: Pacers (TBD)
Bucks @ Hawks (TBD)
Nov. 14, 6 p.m.
What started as an encouraging season for the Hawks has turned into a concerning one thanks to a five-game losing streak and seven losses in their last eight contests. Their perimeter defense is the culprit - Atlanta ranks dead last in defensive rating (119.3) during its losing streak and ranks in the bottom three in 3-point attempts (40.6) and 3-point makes (15.5) allowed per game.
On the other side, the Bucks seem to finally be themselves again after consecutive wins against the 76ers and Knicks. Crucially, Milwaukee sank 26 threes in Wednesday's victory over New York - nine more than its previous best effort of the campaign. Expect the Bucks to let it rain from deep against an overmatched Hawks defense.
Pick: Bucks (TBD)
C Jackson Cowart is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter (@CJacksonCowart) or email him at cjackson.cowart@thescore.com.