'A wake-up call': What this year's Pennsylvania election results mean for critical 2022 races
Candy WoodallAs the results of Tuesday's local elections in Pennsylvania continued to be called on Wednesday morning, it appeared the biggest winner might just be history itself.
The country tends to move away from the president's party the year after a presidential election, especially when the same party controls Congress, and that was the case in Pennsylvania, according to analysts.
And that could be a precursor to next year, which will be President Joe Biden's first midterm elections for Congress: 27 wins went to the president's opposing party in the last 30 midterms.
That will be the backdrop in Pennsylvania next year when Republican Sen. Pat Toomey's seat will be on the ballot as he retires and as voters look to elect a new governor, now held by Democrat Tom Wolf.
"Cycles are powerful things," said Chris Borick, a political science professor and pollster at Muhlenberg College. "American voters don't like to give the keys to one party for too long."
For example, Republicans walloped Democrats in the 2010, two years after former President Barack Obama had been elected.
In 2018, which ushered in a record number of women in politics, Democrats reclaimed the U.S. House two years after former President Trump won in 2016.
Republicans on Tuesday won up and down ballots in Pennsylvania, claimed a high-profile governor's race in Virginia where Biden won by 10 percentage points in 2020 and forced a tight gubernatorial race that was too close to call Wednesday in New Jersey.
In Pennsylvania, Republicans appeared to sweep all statewide judicial races, including a coveted seat on the state's highest court.
A precursor to 2022 in Pa.
While history may be proving an accurate predictor, it's certainly not the only reason Republicans had a good night.
Democrats, Republicans and nonpartisan analysts agreed that local races this week were won because of a confluence of factors. Local races, especially school board contests and the Virginia governor's race, were driven by debates over authority and who gets the final say on masks, vaccines and what is taught in classrooms.
There was also a strong push for diversity, which has steadily increased since 2018 with more women and candidates of color getting elected. A few examples:
- York County Democrat Corey Thurman, a Black man and political newcomer, received the most votes in a contentious Central York school board race. The school board race in a solidly red county that Trump won bigger in 2020 than he did in 2016 became a top one to watch after the Central board banned books, videos and other educational materials from Black and Brown authors. After mounting public pressure, the ban was reversed.
- Aurelis Figueroa, a Latina and Democrat, won a district judge seat in solidly red Lebanon County, defeating a Republican man whose father held the seat for more than 30 years and whose mother was re-elected to a fourth term as mayor.
- Black mayors were elected in multiple cities across Pennsylvania, including Pittsburgh getting its first Black mayor in Ed Gainey. Diverse candidates also won Erie City Council seats.
Despite some success in urban and suburban races, Democratic strategists said Tuesday's election was a "red alert" and "wake-up call" for 2022.
"Democrats need to organize all the time," said J.J. Abbott, executive director of Commonwealth Communications and former press secretary for Wolf.
Republicans have been "laser focused" on that effort and use a right-wing media structure that constantly pushes out their message and agitates their base, experts said.
Tuesday's election results were "a good wake-up call" to get the Democratic base to vote in 2022 and persuade potential swing voters, Abbott said.
"The good news is there's a lot of opportunity to do that in the next year," he said.
While the recent election was important, the stakes are much higher in 2022, when a governor's seat and U.S. Senate seat are up for grabs in Pennsylvania, according to Jesse White, a political strategist at Perpetual Fortitude, a Democratic consulting and digital management firm in Harrisburg.
"The silver lining of Tuesday is that nobody will be taking 2022 lightly," he said.
More:New Pa. poll: Biden's approval rating drops, more voters support masks in schools
More:Pa. AG Josh Shapiro says he's running for governor 'at a critical time in America'
What Tuesday's elections say about Pennsylvania
Charlie Gerow, a Republican candidate for governor and longtime strategist, sees Tuesday's results as a harbinger of good news for his party.
"Last night was a strong message from parents and patriots," he said Wednesday. "Next year, Pennsylvania will send the same message. We are anxious to have our voices heard in favor of a strong economy, quality education and individual liberty."
Though history suggests Republicans will win several seats during Biden's first midterm, analysts and Democrats caution there's a lot of time between now and November 2022.
Both major parties see that as an advantage.
Republicans believe an electorate stressed out because of continuing inflation and supply shortages will work in their favor, as Biden's approval rating hovers in the low 40s. Democrats believe they can benefit from a higher turnout in the midterms with a proven candidate like Attorney General Josh Shapiro leading the ticket for governor.
There's also a looming U.S. Supreme Court decision expected in June that could decide the fate of Roe v. Wade. If the conservative-leaning court overturns the landmark decision that made abortion legal, Democrats believe it could motivate women to the polls.
In the 2018 midterms, urban and suburban women were the most powerful voting bloc in Pennsylvania, sending a record number of women to Congress, and local and state seats. Last year, Pennsylvania was the deciding state to give Biden the presidency.
The anticipated Supreme Court decision is just one factor that could shake up the 2022 midterm election.
Trump formally entering the presidential race, the state of the economy, Biden's approval rating, COVID-19 and immigration could all impact the next election, according to Terry Madonna, veteran political analyst and a political fellow at Millersville University.
"All bets are off," Madonna said. "We don't know exactly what's going to happen."
Looking ahead:Biden faces mounting pressure to pass spending agenda after massive Democratic setbacks in Virginia and New Jersey
Statewide race:GOP's Kevin Brobson wins seat on PA Supreme Court as party appears poised to sweep appellate races
Candy Woodall is a reporter for the USA TODAY Network Pennsylvania Capital Bureau. She can be reached at 717-480-1783 or on Twitter at @candynotcandace.