Republican Glenn Youngkin has defeated Terry McAuliffe to take the Virginia governor’s mansion, handing Democrats a stinging loss in a blue stronghold that President Joe Biden won by ten points a year ago. 

“My fellow Virginians, we stand here this morning at this defining moment, a defining moment that yes, started with two people on a walk and a defining moment that is now millions of Virginians walking together,” Youngkin said around 1 a.m., after the Associated Press and other outlets projected him the winner. “Together,” he added, “we will change the trajectory of this commonwealth.”

Youngkin, a former private equity executive whom McAuliffe described as “Donald Trump in khakis,” had framed his campaign as something of a referendum on the first stretch of Biden’s presidency. The upset victory should serve as a wake-up call for Democrats in Washington, who have failed to use their slim-majority in Congress to pass Biden’s ambitious domestic agenda, and elsewhere, as the party gears up for the midterms. Another worrying sign came in New Jersey, where incumbent Governor Phil Murphy, who was expected to comfortably beat Republican challenger Jack Ciattarelli, remained in a dead heat on Wednesday morning as votes continued to be tallied. 

Though off-year contests are always subject to close-readings from the parties and political analysts, it’s important to remember that there are limits to what can be gleaned from a single state-level election. Still, a Trumpist gain in a state that has trended blue for the last decade is cause for concern for Democrats, especially with their prospects in 2022 and 2024 likely dependent on overperforming against unfavorable maps, Big Lie-inspired voter suppression laws, and other obstacles. “Needless to say,” tweeted Dave Wasserman, U.S. House editor of the Cook Political Report, “tonight's results are consistent w/ a political environment in which Republicans would comfortably take back both the House and Senate in 2022.”

In a state that has become more reliably Democratic in recent cycles, Youngkin attempted a delicate balance between giving voice to Trumpian culture war grievances, as exemplified by his fearmongering about “critical race theory” and Toni Morrison’s Pulitzer Prize-winning masterpiece, Beloved, while still projecting himself as a reasonable Republican. To that end, he tried to keep Trump himself at an arm’s length during his campaign against McAuliffe, publicly acknowledging that Biden was legitimately elected and expressing disapproval of a “Take Back Virginia” rally Steve Bannon and other Trump figures held in support of him last month, during which attendees pledged allegiance to a flag said to have been carried at the January 6 insurrection. That pledge, he said, was “weird and wrong,” and he insisted that he had no part in that rally.

But, as NBC News noted at the time, one of his top surrogates, Virginia State Senator Amanda Chase, was in attendance at that event, underscoring the extent to which Youngkin tried to have it both ways: “Either [Youngkin] actually believes in the same conspiracy theories that resulted in a mob, or he doesn’t believe it but he is willing to go along with it, to say or do anything to get elected,” former President Barack Obama said during a campaign appearance for McAuliffe last month. “And maybe that’s worse...because that says something about character.” The former president added, “We don’t have time to be wasting on these phony, trumped-up culture wars.”

Obama’s appearance—and those of Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris, and other party leaders—reflected both McAuliffe’s vulnerability and the national implications Democrats saw in the Virginia race. Of course, Trump was closely watching the outcome, and even took a victory lap Tuesday night before the AP and major TV networks projected a winner. “I would like to thank my BASE for coming out in force  and voting for Glenn Youngkin,” he said in a statement. “Without you, he would not have been close to winning. The MAGA movement is bigger and stronger than ever before.”

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