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PLEASE NOTE: This forecast, assembled by The Hollywood Reporter‘s awards columnist Scott Feinberg, reflects his best attempt to predict the behavior of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, not his personal preferences. He arrives at these standings by drawing upon consultations with voters and awards strategists, analysis of marketing and awards campaigns, results of awards ceremonies that precede the Oscars and the history of the Oscars ceremony itself. There will be regular updates to reflect new developments.
*BEST PICTURE*
Frontrunners
King Richard (Warner Bros., Nov. 19, trailer)
Belfast (Focus, Nov. 12, trailer)
The Power of the Dog (Netflix, Nov. 17, trailer)
A Hero (Amazon, TBD, TBD)
C’mon, C’mon (A24, Nov. 19, trailer)
Dune (Warner Bros., Oct. 22, trailer)
The Hand of God (Netflix, Dec. 3, trailer)
CODA (Apple, Aug. 13, trailer)
The Harder They Fall (Netflix, Nov. 3, trailer)
Summer of Soul (Searchlight, July 2, trailer)
Related Stories
Possibilities
Flee (Neon/Participant, TBD, trailer)
Titane (Neon, TBD, trailer)
Parallel Mothers (Sony Classics, Dec. 24, trailer)
The Lost Daughter (Netflix, Dec. 31, TBD)
Spencer (Neon/Topic, Nov. 5, trailer)
Longer Shots
The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple, Dec. 25, trailer)
Cyrano (MGM/UA, Dec. 31, TBD)
Tick, Tick… Boom! (Netflix, TBD, trailer)
Red Rocket (A24, Dec. 3, trailer)
The Green Knight (A24, May 29, trailer)
Still to See or Cannot Comment Yet
Being the Ricardos (Amazon, TBD, TBD)
Don’t Look Up (Netflix, Dec. 10, trailer)
House of Gucci (MGM/UA, Nov. 24, trailer)
Licorice Pizza (MGM/UA, Nov. 26, TBD)
Nightmare Alley (Searchlight, Dec. 17, trailer)
Swan Song (Apple, TBD, TBD)
West Side Story (Disney, Dec. 10, trailer)
*BEST DIRECTOR*
Frontrunners
Kenneth Branagh (Belfast)
Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog)
Asghar Farhadi (A Hero)
Denis Villeneuve (Dune)
Reinaldo Marcus Green (King Richard)
Possibilities
Pedro Almodóvar (Parallel Mothers) — podcast
Paolo Sorrentino (The Hand of God)
Mike Mills (C’mon C’mon)
Julia Ducournau (Titane)
Maggie Gyllenhaal (The Lost Daughter)
Jeymes Samuel (The Harder They Fall)
Longer Shots
Sean Baker (Red Rocket) — podcast
Pablo Larraín (Spencer)
Sian Heder (CODA)
Joe Wright (Cyrano)
Lin-Manuel Miranda (Tick, Tick … Boom!) — podcast
Still to See or Cannot Comment Yet
Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza)
Guillermo del Toro (Nightmare Alley) — podcast
Adam McKay (Don’t Look Up) — podcast
Ridley Scott (House of Gucci) — podcast
Aaron Sorkin (Being the Ricardos) — podcast
Steven Spielberg (West Side Story) — podcast
*BEST ACTOR*
Frontrunners
Will Smith (King Richard) — podcast
Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog) — podcast
Joaquin Phoenix (C’mon Cmon)
Simon Rex (Red Rocket) — podcast
Jude Hill (Belfast)
Possibilities
Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth) — podcast
Nicolas Cage (Pig) — podcast
Andrew Garfield (Tick, Tick … Boom!) — podcast
Peter Dinklage (Cyrano)
Oscar Isaac (The Card Counter) — podcast
Longer Shots
Filippo Scotti (The Hand of God)
Timothée Chalamet (Dune) — podcast
Jonathan Majors (The Harder They Fall)
Matt Damon (Stillwater)
Adam Driver (Annette) — podcast
Still to See or Cannot Comment Yet
Mahershala Ali (Swan Song) — podcast
Javier Bardem (Being the Ricardos)
Clifton Collins Jr. (Jockey)
Bradley Cooper (Nightmare Alley)
Leonardo DiCaprio (Don’t Look Up)
Adam Driver (House of Gucci) — podcast
Ansel Elgort (West Side Story)
Frankie Faison (The Killing of Kenneth Chamberlain)
Cooper Hoffman (Licorice Pizza)
Udo Kier (Swan Song)
Tim Blake Nelson (Old Henry)
Dan Stevens (I’m Your Man)
*BEST ACTRESS*
Frontrunners
Kristen Stewart (Spencer) — podcast
Penélope Cruz (Parallel Mothers)
Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter) — podcast
Jennifer Hudson (Respect)
Emilia Jones (CODA)
Possibilities
Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye) — podcast
Tessa Thompson (Passing)
Frances McDormand (The Tragedy of Macbeth)
Jodie Comer (The Last Duel)
Longer Shots
Agathe Rousselle (Titane)
Haley Bennett (Cyrano)
Halle Berry (Bruised)
Sandra Bullock (The Unforgivable)
Still to See or Cannot Comment Yet
Lady Gaga (House of Gucci) — podcast
Alana Haim (Licorice Pizza)
Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos) — podcast
Jennifer Lawrence (Don’t Look Up) — podcast
Rooney Mara (Nightmare Alley)
Renate Reinsve (The Worst Person in the World)
Rachel Sennott (Shiva Baby)
Rachel Zegler (West Side Story)
*BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR*
Frontrunners
Jamie Dornan (Belfast)
Ciaran Hinds (Belfast)
Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog)
Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog)
Jon Bernthal (King Richard)
Possibilities
Woody Norman (C’mon C’mon)
Ben Affleck (The Tender Bar) — podcast
Andrew Garfield (The Eyes of Tammy Faye) — podcast
Eugenio Derbez (CODA) — podcast
Timothy Spall (Spencer)
Vincent Lindon (Titane)
Longer Shots
Troy Kotsur (CODA)
Jimmy Smits (In the Heights)
Idris Elba (The Harder They Fall) — podcast
Jeffrey Wright (The French Dispatch)
Reed Birney (Mass)
Jason Isaacs (Mass)
Still to See or Cannot Comment Yet
David Alvarez (West Side Story)
Timothée Chalamet (Don’t Look Up) — podcast
Bradley Cooper (Licorice Pizza)
Mike Faist (West Side Story)
Jonah Hill (Don’t Look Up)
Jeremy Irons (House of Gucci)
Richard Jenkins (Nightmare Alley)
Jared Leto (House of Gucci) — podcast
Rob Morgan (Don’t Look Up)
Al Pacino (House of Gucci) — podcast
Mark Rylance (Don’t Look Up)
J.K. Simmons (Being the Ricardos)
David Strathairn (Nightmare Alley)
*BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS*
Frontrunners
Caitriona Balfe (Belfast)
Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog)
Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard) — podcast
Judi Dench (Belfast) — podcast
Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter)
Possibilities
Gaby Hoffmann (C’mon C’mon)
Suzanna Son (Red Rocket)
Dakota Johnson (The Lost Daughter)
Ruth Negga (Passing) — podcast
Marlee Matlin (CODA)
Milena Smit (Parallel Mothers)
Longer Shots
Ann Dowd (Mass)
Martha Plimpton (Mass)
Kathryn Hunter (The Tragedy of Macbeth)
Saniyya Sidney (King Richard)
Demi Singleton (King Richard)
Still to See or Cannot Comment Yet
Nina Arianda (Being the Ricardos)
Cate Blanchett (Don’t Look Up) — podcast
Cate Blanchett (Nightmare Alley) — podcast
Toni Collette (Nightmare Alley)
Ariana DeBose (West Side Story)
Salma Hayek (House of Gucci)
Rita Moreno (West Side Story)
Meryl Streep (Don’t Look Up) — podcast
*BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY*
Frontrunners
The Power of the Dog (Jane Campion)
The Lost Daughter (Maggie Gyllenhaal)
CODA (Sian Heder)
Dune (Eric Roth, Jon Spaihts & Denis Villeneuve)
Drive My Car (Ryusuke Hamaguchi & Takamasa Oe)
Possibilities
Passing (Rebecca Hall)
The Tragedy of Macbeth (Joel Coen)
The Many Saints of Newark (David Chase & Lawrence Konner)
Cyrano (Erica Schmidt)
Zola (Janicza Bravo & Jeremy O. Harris)
Longer Shots
Tick, Tick … Boom! (Steven Levenson)
The Tender Bar (William Monahan)
The Green Knight (David Lowery)
In the Heights (Quiara Alegría Hudes)
Compartment No. 6 (Juho Kuosmanen)
Still to See or Cannot Comment Yet
House of Gucci (Roberto Bentivegna & Becky Johnston)
Nightmare Alley (Guillermo del Toro & Kim Morgan) — podcast (del Toro)
Shiva Baby (Emma Seligman)
West Side Story (Tony Kushner)
*BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY*
Frontrunners
Belfast (Kenneth Branagh)
A Hero (Asghar Farhadi)
King Richard (Zach Baylin)
C’mon, Cmon (Mike Mills)
The Hand of God (Paolo Sorrentino)
Possibilities
Parallel Mothers (Pedro Almodóvar) — podcast
The Harder They Fall (Jeymes Samuel & Boaz Yakin)
The Card Counter (Paul Schrader)
Spencer (Steven Knight)
Red Rocket (Sean Baker & Chris Bergoch) — podcast (Baker)
Longer Shots
Bergman Island (Mia Hansen-Love)
Last Night in Soho (Krysty Wilson-Cairns & Edgar Wright)
Mass (Fran Kranz)
The French Dispatch (Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola & Jason Schwartzman)
Stillwater (Tom McCarthy) — podcast
Still to See or Cannot Comment Yet
Being the Ricardos (Aaron Sorkin) — podcast
Don’t Look Up (Adam McKay & David Sirota) — podcast (McKay)
The Killing of Kenneth Chamberlain (David Midell)
Licorice Pizza (Paul Thomas Anderson)
*BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE*
Projected Shortlist
Summer of Soul (Searchlight)
Flee (Neon/Participant)
The Rescue (Nat Geo)
The Velvet Underground (Apple)
Procession (Netflix)
The First Wave (Neon) — podcast (Matthew Heineman)
Attica (Showtime)
Found (Netflix)
Becoming Cousteau (Nat Geo)
Julia (Sony Classics)
My Name Is Pauli Murray (Amazon)
Roadrunner: A Film About Anthony Bourdain (Focus)
Francesco (Discovery+)
The Sparks Brothers (Focus)
Val (Amazon)
Possibilities
Billie Eilish: The World’s A Little Blurry (Apple)
Tom Petty: Somewhere You Feel Free (distribution not yet announced)
Introducing, Selma Blair (Discovery+)
Rita Moreno: Just a Girl Who Decided to Go for It (Roadside)
Still to See or Cannot Comment Yet
45 Days: The Fight for a Nation (self-distributed)
Ailey (Neon)
All Light, Everywhere (Super LTD)
Ascension (MTV)
A Cop Movie (Netflix)
Bring Your Own Brigade (CBSN/Paramount)
Citizen Ashe (Magnolia)
Convergence: Courage in a Crisis (Netflix)
Cusp (Showtime)
Fauci (Nat Geo)
Faya Dayi (Janus Films)
Homeroom (Hulu)
In the Same Breath (HBO)
The Last Forest (Gullane)
LFG (HBO Max)
The Lost Leonardo (Sony Classics)
Mayor Pete (Amazon)
Misha and the Wolves (Netflix)
Pray Away (Netflix)
President (Greenwich)
The Real Charlie Chaplin (Showtime)
Rebel Hearts (Discovery+)
Sisters on Track (Netflix)
Stray (Magnolia)
Street Gang: How We Got to Sesame Street (HBO)
Torn (Nat Geo)
Who We Are (Sony Classics)
*BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE*
Frontrunners
A Hero (Iran)
The Hand of God (Italy)
Flee (Denmark)
Compartment No. 6 (Finland)
Titane (France)
Possibilities
The Worst Person in the World (Norway)
Drive My Car (Japan)
Zatopek (Czech Republic)
Still to See
Brighton 4th (Georgia)
Casablanca Beats (Morocco)
A Cop Movie (Mexico)
Digger (Greece)
Do Not Hesitate (Netherlands)
Drunken Birds (Canada)
Escape from Mogadishu (South Korea)
The Falls (Taiwan)
The Good Boss (Spain)
Great Freedom (Austria)
Hive (Kosovo)
I’m Your Man (Germany)
Lamb (Iceland)
Leave No Traces (Poland)
Let It Be Morning (Israel)
Memoria (Colombia)
Oasis (Serbia)
Olga (Switzerland)
Post Mortem (Hungary)
Prayers for the Stolen (Mexico)
Sumergible (Ecuador)
Unclenching the Fist (Russia)
White Building (Cambodia)
*BEST ORIGINAL SONG*
Frontrunners
“No Time to Die” — Billie Eilish & Finneas O’Connell (No Time to Die)
“Be Alive” — Beyoncé Knowles-Carter & Darius Scott (King Richard)
“Here I Am (Singing My Way Home)” — Jamie Alexander Hartman, Jennifer Hudson & Carole King (Respect)
“So May We Start” — Ron Mael & Russell Mael (Annette)
“Down to Joy” — Van Morrison (Belfast)
Possibilities (rest of shortlist)
“Guns Go Bang” — Jay-Z, Kid Cudi & Jeymes Samuel (The Harder They Fall)
“Fire in the Sky” — Anderson .Paak (Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings)
“Million to One” — Camila Cabello & Scott Harris (Cinderella)
“Every Letter” — Matt Berninger, Carin Besser, Aaron Dessner & Bryce Dessner [“The National”] (Cyrano)
“The Anonymous Ones” — Benj Pasek, Justin Paul & Amandla Stenberg (Dear Evan Hansen)
“My Father’s Daughter” — Glen Hansard, Cat Power & Eddie Vedder (Flag Day)
“We Love Each Other” — Ron Mael & Russell Mael (Annette)
“Beyond the Shore” — Nicholai Baxter, Matt Dahan, Sian Heder & Marius de Vries (CODA)
“Believe” — Aloe Blacc & Daniel Pemberton (The Rescue)
“Home All Summer” — Lin-Manuel Miranda (In the Heights) — podcast
Still to See
“Somehow You Do” — Diane Warren (Four Good Days) — podcast
“Never Gonna Tame You” (The Mustangs: America’s Wild Horses) — podcast
“At the Automat” — Mel Brooks (The Automat)
“Secret Sister” — Rufus Wainwright (Rebel Hearts)
“Right Where I Belong” — Brian Wilson & Jim James (Brian Wilson: Long Promised Road)
“Blome Swete Lilie Flour” — Daniel Hart (The Green Knight)
“Inside Your Heart” — Lin-Manuel Miranda (Vivo) — podcast
“Keep the Beat” — Lin-Manuel Miranda (Vivo) — podcast
“My Own Drum” — Missy Elliott & Lin-Manuel Miranda (Vivo) — podcast
“[not yet titled]” — Nicholas Britell, Ariana Grande & Kid Cudi (Don’t Look Up)
“Columbia, Mi Encanto” — Lin-Manuel Miranda (Encanto) — podcast
“Just for Me” — SZA & Saint JHN (Space Jam: A New Legacy)
“On My Way” — Alexandra Lahey, Sophie Louise Payten & Gabriel Strum (The Mitchells vs. the Machines)
“We Win” — Kirk Franklin, Dominique “Lil Baby” Jones, Cynthia Nunn & Justin Gregory Smith (Space Jam: A New Legacy)
“Call Me Cruella” — Florence + The Machine (Cruella)
“Lead the Way” — Jhene Aiko & James Newton Howard (Raya and the Last Dragon)
“Hourglass” — Mary J. Blige (Mary J. Blige’s My Life) — podcast
“Chasing Dreams” — Goze & Tyler Strickland (Changing the Game)
“Beginning Middle End” — Leah Nobel & Quinn Redmond (To All the Boys: Always and Forever)
“Only One Way to Fly” — Jeremiah Fraites & Wesley Schultz [The Lumineers] (The Starling)
“Tu Draumst [To Dream]” — Tara Nome Doyle & Isobel Waller-Bridge (Munich: The Edge of War)
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