The Miami Heat (2-1) take on the Brooklyn Nets (2-2) Wednesday at the Barclays Center with tip scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Heat vs. Nets odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Miami avenged its first loss of the season (102-91 to the Indiana Pacers this past weekend) to trounce the Orlando Magic 107-90 Monday. Through three games, the Heat have the highest net rating and the third-highest rebounding rate in the Association.
Brooklyn has alternated between wins/covers and losses/non-covers in its first four games with the latest being a 104-90 over the Washington Wizards Monday. However, the Nets rank 24th in net rating and 22nd in effective field goal shooting (eFG%) thus far.
The Nets won two of three regular-season meetings with the Heat last season, but Miami covered two of three and the Under was 2-1 in those contests. Also, Miami wing SG Jimmy Butler didn’t play in any of the three Heat-Nets meetings last year while SF Kevin Durant played in all of them.
Heat at Nets odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:45 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Heat +133 (bet $100 to win $133) | Nets -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Heat +3.5 (-107) | Nets -3.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 217.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)
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Heat at Nets key injuries
Heat
- SG Victor Oladipo (quadriceps) out
Nets
- PG Kyrie Irving (personal) out
Heat at Nets odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Heat 108, Nets 106
Money line
PASS with a slight “lean” to the Heat (+133) because I’m on Miami plus the points in this spot and generally will sprinkle on an underdog’s money line when betting them to cover.
That said, I’d need the Heat’s money line to be priced north of +150 for me to take a stab since I see more value in the Under than Miami outright.
Against the spread
“LEAN” to the HEAT +3.5 (-107) because there’s “sharp line movement” toward Miami and the ramped-up physicality in these games helps out the Heat more than the Nets. For instance, this game opened with Miami getting 5 points but has been steamed down since.
On top of that, the NBA tweaked things this offseason when it enacted a policy to officiate unnatural offensive moves out of the game.
Now, both teams have players that benefited greatly from drawing weak fouls in previous seasons, but Miami has a more physical roster to start with.
Over/Under
“LEAN” to the UNDER 217.5 (-108) because neither team has shot well from the field to start the year or attacking the basket.
According to CleaningTheGlass.com, Brooklyn is 26th in percentage of shots at the rim and fifth in mid-range field goal volume.
While Miami is 27th in attempts at the rim and first in mid-range field goal volume. However, the Nets are ninth in defensive field goal shooting in the mid-range and the Heat are fourth.
The reason I only “LEAN” to the UNDER 217.5 (-108) is that we are getting to the party late.
According to Pregame.com, this Heat-Nets game opened with a 222.5-point total but has been dragged down to the current price. So, while the Under is the sharp play, we are getting the worst of the number.
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