EUGENE, Ore. - Gov. Kate Brown reinstated the statewide mask mandate nearly 2 months ago amid a surge of Delta variant infections.
But how long will we need to keep using face coverings?
When exactly Oregon unmasks is up to the governor.
We reached out to her asking about a timeline for lifting the mask requirement. Charles Boyles in Brown's office responded with this statement:
“The governor’s goal during the Delta surge continues to be to save lives, protect hospital capacity and keep Oregon businesses, schools and communities open. Every time Oregonians mask up, they help us work toward that goal. Masks are a simple and effective tool to slow the spread of COVID-19. While COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations have continued to drop in recent weeks, far too many Oregonians are continuing to be hospitalized and die from COVID-19. The Oregon Health Authority and Oregon OSHA will continue to monitor Oregon’s COVID-19 metrics in assessing Oregon’s mask requirements in the coming weeks and months.”
But local officials say Lane County is heading in the right direction.
"We continue to trend down on a pretty decent pace,” says COVID-19 incident commander Steve Adams.
Two months ago, at the peak of the Delta surge, Lane County was averaging over 400 cases per 100,000 people; now we're averaging 150.
"100 cases per hundred thousand is really the mark where we get from this high risk threshold to a more substantial spread,” says Adams.
So when will we hit that threshold?
"Certainly the models suggest that by mid to late November, we might be getting below 100 cases per 100 thousand,” Adams said.
While Adams can't predict the future, the outlook in Lane County lines up with recent modelling from OHSU, predicting herd immunity in Oregon by the end of the year.
"We do see similar trends here locally. We are extremely optimistic that getting through this winter will put us behind the worst of what we’re seeing,” Adams said.
To finally close the door on COVID, experts say we'll need to stay on track with vaccines, boosters, and social distancing.
"Common measures like masking distancing and good hand hygiene,” says Adams.
Vaccines are widely available, and many groups are eligible for booster shots.
Lane County launched a new drive-thru clinics at the Lane Events Center on Tuesday, the same day the governor received both her booster shot and her flu vaccine.
Flu season is another reason to keep up with those preventative actions.
"We’re seeing flu now. We’re seeing other illnesses in the community as well," Adams said, "so all of us want to be healthy for the holidays."
Late Tuesday, Oregon Health Authority responded to emailed questions from our newsroom:
When do you expect masks will no longer be required?
OHA cannot predict when the indoor masking requirement will be lifted. It depends on the transmission of the virus in the community and the effect it is having on hospitals.
What will holiday guidance look like?
It will be similar to last year’s. Keep in mind that while the numbers of COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths continue to slowly decline, they all still remain high and level with, or above, last year’s holiday numbers. We are concerned, as people gather indoors for the holidays, that there will be another holiday surge.
Do you have comment on OHSU’s modelling showing herd immunity by end of year?
In line with OHSU’s current projections, OHA expects population immunity in Oregon to steadily improve, especially with vaccination expanding to younger children and booster doses being given. There are many variables involved in transmission, including community variation in vaccination rates, variation in adherence to preventive behaviors (masking, distancing, avoiding large gatherings, etc.), and new variants that could emerge, so there is not a particular level of population immunity at which point we can assume the virus will stop spreading. It is likely that Oregon will see another surge, but there is reason to be hopeful that it will be smaller than the late-summer surge we are coming out of.