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The Binion Index Week 8

Cincy survives as the sole G5 contender, a couple of pretenders fade, and a top 4 battle awaits us in the Cocktail Party this weekend

By Robert Binion
Florida v South Florida Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images

National Headlines

  • I told everyone to watch Coastal Carolina, and the defense couldn’t get off of the field in Boone. I’m sorry to #OurChanticleers
  • Cincy didn’t play their best game of the season but did plenty to get by Navy.
  • Penn State fell out of contention, and Oklahoma State couldn’t prove that they were legit.
  • Alabama pulled away late, and Ohio State is slowly gaining on UGA with one dominant offensive performance after another.
  • Undefeated Wake Forest moves way up...to #70

GT Check-In

  • Current Record: 3-4
  • Current Ranking and Rating: 61st, 1.55 points above average
  • Record Expectations (based on underlying stats): 3.76-3.24
  • Future Expectations (based on TBI): 1.99-3.01
  • Final Projected Record: 5.75- 6.25

GT Remaining Win Probabilities

Opponent GT Win Probability
Opponent GT Win Probability
VT 0.75
@Miami 0.39
BC 0.59
@ND 0.25
UGA 0.01

Tracking the Model

The Binion Index had a rough week 8, hitting 42% ATS with a mean error of 14.7 points. We were hurt by Vegas being ahead of us on some of the teams whose 2021 performance has most differed from the preseason projections. The projections get further phased out this week.

We track the model’s performance by analyzing how it does against the Vegas spread over the course of the season, and how it does compared compared to the actual point margin of each game. Winning 55% of games ATS is typically considered the gold standard of performance, and hitting an absolute error of 12.5 points per game is excellent.

The college prediction tracker keeps up with ATS and absolute error performance of almost 50 different models. After seven weeks, the Binion Index would be 2nd overall ATS and 30th in absolute error.

Season to Date ATS: 216-195-7 (52.5%)

ATS Goal: >=55%

Season to Date Absolute Error: 13.8

Absolute Error Goal: <=12.5

The Binion Index Week 8

Ranking Team Week 8
Ranking Team Week 8
1 Georgia 37.12
2 Alabama 33.18
3 Ohio State 29.55
4 Florida 21.27
5 Cincinnati 20.76
6 Pittsburgh 18.46
7 Clemson 17.78
8 Coastal Carolina 17.78
9 Wisconsin 16.6
10 Texas A&M 16.56
11 Oregon 16.37
12 Michigan 16.33
13 Arizona State 16.17
14 Oklahoma 15.75
15 Arkansas 15.38
16 Auburn 15.15
17 Nebraska 14.97
18 Baylor 14.78
19 Mississippi State 14.13
20 UAB 13.89
21 Ole Miss 13.54
22 Iowa State 11.9
23 Michigan State 11.44
24 NC State 11.23
25 Penn State 11
26 Tennessee 10.75
27 Fresno State 10.65
28 Western Michigan 10.59
29 LSU 9.81
30 Notre Dame 9.01
31 Utah 8.69
32 Kentucky 8.56
33 Oklahoma State 8.45
34 Houston 7.71
35 Purdue 7.68
36 Iowa 7.47
37 Minnesota 7.03
38 UCF 6.86
39 Appalachian State 6.83
40 Florida State 6.73
41 Kansas State 6.25
42 Oregon State 5.97
43 SMU 5.87
44 Maryland 5.81
45 TCU 5.49
46 Texas 5.22
47 Colorado State 5.11
48 Virginia 4.97
49 Washington 4.57
50 San Diego State 4.5
51 Liberty 3.19
52 Miami 3.03
53 Florida Atlantic 2.53
54 West Virginia 2.52
55 Louisville 2.49
56 Western Kentucky 2.46
57 Syracuse 2.4
58 UCLA 2.34
59 BYU 1.91
60 California 1.6
61 Georgia Tech 1.55
62 North Carolina 1.26
63 Boston College 0.88
64 Louisiana 0.82
65 Texas Tech 0.8
66 Troy 0.44
67 UT San Antonio 0.1
68 Toledo -0.55
69 Memphis -1.01
70 Wake Forest -1.16
71 Georgia State -1.22
72 USC -1.38
73 Washington State -1.43
74 Marshall -1.44
75 Stanford -1.93
76 Tulsa -2.05
77 South Carolina -2.14
78 UTEP -2.25
79 South Alabama -2.51
80 Nevada -2.88
81 Northwestern -2.92
82 Boise State -3.31
83 Duke -3.31
84 Rutgers -3.43
85 Miami (OH) -4.25
86 Air Force -4.42
87 Northern Illinois -4.79
88 Kent State -5.3
89 Army -5.36
90 Indiana -5.36
91 Wyoming -5.56
92 Missouri -5.58
93 Virginia Tech -5.86
94 Tulane -6.85
95 South Florida -7.07
96 Illinois -7.18
97 Central Michigan -7.43
98 Louisiana Tech -7.59
99 Hawai'i -8.45
100 Old Dominion -8.87
101 East Carolina -9.15
102 Utah State -9.49
103 Eastern Michigan -9.7
104 Ohio -9.84
105 Temple -10.35
106 Colorado -11.41
107 San José State -11.8
108 Rice -11.92
109 Southern Mississippi -12.31
110 Middle Tennessee -12.6
111 Arizona -12.77
112 Buffalo -13.18
113 Ball State -14.12
114 UNLV -14.28
115 North Texas -14.74
116 Vanderbilt -15.51
117 Florida International -16.5
118 Georgia Southern -17.07
119 Bowling Green -17.42
120 Charlotte -17.84
121 Akron -19.95
122 Navy -20.79
123 Louisiana Monroe -22.61
124 Kansas -23.26
125 New Mexico -24.06
126 Texas State -24.17
127 Arkansas State -26.25
128 UMass -29.22
129 New Mexico State -30.88
130 Connecticut -33.99