The 2021 Detroit Tigers placed far greater emphasis on stealing bases than their 2019 counterparts, the team’s last full 162 game campaign prior to 2021. But were the ‘21 Tigers an improved base-stealing team compared to 2019, and how do they compare to MLB average? Moreover, do the 2021 Tigers’ base stealing habits bear any resemblance to the 2019 Houston Astros, the last team managed by A.J. Hinch before this past season?
2019 Detroit Tigers (https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/DET/2019.shtml)
The 2019 Detroit Tigers struggled offensively, scoring over a run less than average per game and tallying an OPS+ 19 points below average. This inability to consistently get on base, hit for extra bases, and score runs might lead one to conclude that the 2019 Tigers stole bases at an above average rate to compensate for their unproductive offense. However, they stole nearly 20 fewer bases than average, good for 21st among 30 teams. While the team was able to successfully convert on most of its stolen base attempts, the relative infrequency of these attempts meant that baserunning did not generate a significant amount of offense for the 2019 Tigers.
Was the team’s below average number of steals attributable to a roster unsuited for baserunning? Statcast data has shown that since 2015 the average foot speed of an MLB player is 27 feet/second and any run at or above 30 feet per second is considered elite (https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sprint_speed_leaderboard). In 2019, twelve Detroit Tigers had above average sprint speed, none possessed elite speed and the average of the team’s top five fastest players was 28.8 feet/second. Despite the lack of top-end speed on the roster, the ‘19 Tigers had enough quickness to suggest that this was not the definitive cause of their low steal numbers. Speed is only one component of baserunning, and it is possible that the coaching staff judged its players to be lacking the necessary timing and instinct to steal regularly, as the team’s outs made on the bases nearly equaled its number of steals.
2021 Detroit Tigers (https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/DET/2021.shtml)
Base stealing constituted a significant part of the 2021 Detroit Tigers offense. The team stole over thirty more bases than in its last 162-game campaign and was tied for the 7th most steals in baseball. The 2021 Tigers also succeeded in stealing to a greater degree than league average despite making more outs on the bases than average. While the team’s scoring ranks below league average, it represents a significant improvement from 2019, a measure attributable both to a higher team OPS+ and increased base stealing.
The average speed of the five fastest players was 29.08 feet/second, faster than 2019 but not by an overwhelming margin. This suggests that while both teams were likely fast enough to steal a comparable number of bases, the 2021 roster included players who were more skilled in timing their base stealing opportunities. One can reasonably infer that outfielders Akil Baddoo and Robbie Grossman are these sorts of players, as they stole 18 and 20 bases respectively. Meanwhile, 2019’s leading base stealer, infielder/outfielder Niko Goodrum, only swiped 12 bases. The presence of more instinctual baserunners may also be reflected in the fact that the 2021 Tigers made only three more outs on the bases than their 2019 counterparts despite attempting nearly forty more steals.
2019 Houston Astros vs. 2021 Detroit Tigers (https://www.baseball-reference.com/)
The last two A.J. Hinch managed teams exhibit relatively few similarities in terms of base running and offense. The 2019 Astros got on base, hit for power and scored at an elite level while the 2021 Tigers were at or below league average in these categories. The Astros’ potent offense meant that the team did not have to steal bases in order to produce runs. While the average sprint speed of the team’s five fastest players was only 0.02 feet/second slower than the 2021 Tigers, at 29.06 feet/second, the team’s stolen base total and percentage were below league average in 2019 and well below Hinch’s Tigers.
Meanwhile, only a single member of the Astros stole double-digit bases, as compared to three Tigers. While the Tigers’ coaching staff made base stealing an important component of the team’s offense by increasing attempts and acquiring skilled baserunners, it is not clear that this approach will continue as the team evolves. A.J. Hinch’s last two teams suggest he is a manager willing to heighten or de-emphasize base stealing according to the strengths and weaknesses of his roster, rather than adhering to a static philosophy. Expect the leading base stealers on the ‘21 Tigers to continue swiping bags in 2022, while the talented hitters expected to join the team through promotion and free agency may post high enough OPS+ numbers so as to minimize the offensive upside of stealing bases.
