NYC weather: How much rain could we see? Forecaster details the worst of the storm

An Accuweather map shows a large weather system that could result in flooding and damaging winds headed for the Staten Island area. (Accuweather)

STATEN ISLAND, N.Y. — “The worst of the storm” will be approaching New York City soon, says AccuWeather meteorologist Max Gawryla.

A storm with heavy rain and damaging winds is expected to reach Staten Island on Monday night, with the worst showers forecast to soak the borough between midnight and 4 a.m.

Gawryla described the storm as a mess, as what the tri-state area will see is the merging of two storms.

The Advance originally reported that the storm would approach Staten Island by 7 p.m., but Gawryla said it has shifted to 9 p.m., when it will be all-around “messy.”

Heavy rain and severe thunderstorm warnings were currently over Southeastern Pennsylvania and Central New Jersey, as of 7:45 p.m., said Gawryla.

“We will soon see this slowly creep up on Staten Island in about an hour or two, where it will fill in over the tri-state,’' said Gawryla. “When it does come to New York City, it will be the worst of the storm, with heavy rain throughout the night into Tuesday afternoon.”

The National Weather Service issued a flash flood watch for Monday night until Wednesday, while strong winds could also impact homes and businesses — most likely on Tuesday afternoon.

The expected rainfall amounts are between 4 and 6 inches, and more in some areas.

And while some residents might escape flooding overnight, residents should remain prepared through Wednesday afternoon, according to a flash flood watch issued by the National Weather Service.

Gawryla said the storm will not be completely over until early Wednesday morning, and that Tuesday will see a break in the heavy rainfall until some time in the afternoon.

“By Tuesday evening, the rain will have slowed down, but right now the main concern is the potential for this storm to be heavy throughout the hours of the night and will be consistent,” Gawryla said.

He also said the rainfall amounts are not out of the ordinary for October. However, this is the earliest we have seen a nor’easter come this year.

State officials cautioned in a release from Gov. Kathy Hochul that heavy rainfall, combined with already saturated soils, will likely cause flooding in various locations, and high winds may cause downed tree limbs and power lines.

“I have directed state agencies to prepare emergency response assets and to be ready to deploy them in the event our local governments and communities in those regions are in need of assistance,” Hochul said. “We stand ready to help our fellow New Yorkers.”

The New York City Emergency Management Department, meanwhile, will activate the city’s virtual Emergency Operations Center (EOC) on Monday evening with city, state and private partners to coordinate a response to the storm, according to officials.

For anyone planning to be in a car during peak hours of possible flooding, the city also has issued a travel advisory.

During heavy rain, seek higher ground or, if in a basement, move to a higher floor, the agency said. New Yorkers also are advised to limit travel and stay inside. Do not drive into areas where water covers the roadway, because it could be deeper than it seems.

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