Forecasters see mixed planting weather for South America's farmers

While the weather has been cooperating across many of the major soybean production areas of Brazil lately, other areas haven't fared as well. Drier-than-normal conditions across Argentina and southern Brazil are raising concerns for crops in these regions.

Risks of dry weather lie ahead for many of the major production regions since La Niña supports drier-than-normal weather in the growing season.

The weather pattern in South America will be a mixed bag in the final week of October 2021 (week-ending October 30). Parts of the major soybean producing areas of Brazil will see wetter weather, but southern Brazil and much of Argentina will see drier-than-normal conditions.

The weather thus far this season has been fairly cooperative for soybean planting in the major growing regions of Brazil. La Niña, officially declared in mid-October, has yet to turn off the rains for portions of Brazil. However, Argentina and southern Brazil are in need of rain. For the major soybean growing regions of Argentina, October 2021 will end up being one of the driest of the past 30 years.

No weather miracles are expected in the week ahead for Argentina either as this is forecast to be the driest and second warmest final week of October in more than 30 years, according to data from WeatherTrends360. Drier trends will extend into southern Brazil with Rio Grande do Sul trending the fourth driest for the same time span.

Farther to the north, precipitation will be more favorable in the final week of October. Precipitation will be near or above normal for portions of central-west Brazil, including many of the major soybean production areas.

Favorable weather thus far this planting season has allowed for rapid planting. This is good news not only for the soybean crop but for the second-corn crop (safrinha), which is planted after the soybean harvest. Earlier planted soybeans suggest an earlier harvest, thus, an earlier planting of the safrinha crop. Last growing season, delays in planting resulted in some of the safrinha crop entering critical development stages as Brazil's dry season hit.

Despite all of the good weather news in the short-term for Brazil soybean planting, the threat of La Niña bringing drier conditions during the growing season still looms. Argentina is already seeing a deficit in rainfall with drier conditions creeping into southern Brazil as well. La Niña is often associated with drier-than-normal weather in Argentina and in parts of Brazil, especially southern Brazil.

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