STATEN ISLAND, N.Y. -- Thanks to the weather phenomenon known as La Nina, the nation’s climate experts are predicting a mild winter for New York City.
Staten Island, along with most of the eastern and southern United States, could be blessed with “above average temperatures” from December through February, according to the 2021 Winter Outlook issued by the Climate Prediction Center of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
If the prognostications prove true, it will be our borough’s second relatively warm winter fueled by La Nina. However, NOAA is hedging its bets by saying the borough’s chances are about equal for snowfall that is low, high or average for the season.
In contrast, the Old Farmer’s Almanac 2021-2022 Winter Weather Forecast is calling for a cold winter season in New York City.
Staten Islanders who are thinking about traveling this winter might be interested in NOAA’s predictions for the rest of the country. The South and Southeast perhaps will be the warmest locales with the lowest snow totals. The Northwest could be the coldest with the highest accumulations of white powder. The Midwest basically is a coin toss in terms of temperatures, but probably will have a snowy winter.
La Nina, which means little girl in Spanish, is an event in which trade winds strengthen, propelling abundant warm water toward Asia. Cold water swells to the surface of the Pacific Ocean off the West Coast of the United States. Chilly waters push the jet stream northward.
Generally, La Nina causes drought conditions in the southern United States and heavy rain that could lead to flooding in the Pacific Northwest and Canada. During a typical La Nina year, winter temperatures are warmer than normal in the South and cooler than usual in the North. La Niña may fuel a more severe hurricane season.
Here are this winter’s official temperature predictions by NOAA for the Untied States:
- Warmer-than-average conditions are most likely across the southern tier of the country and much of the eastern United States, with the greatest likelihood of above-average temperatures in the Southeast;
- Below-average temperatures are favored for Southeast Alaska and the Pacific Northwest eastward to the Northern Plains;
- The Upper Mississippi Valley and small areas of the Great Lakes have equal chances for below-, near- or above-average temperatures.
Here are this winter’s official rain/snow predictions by NOAA for the United States:
- The Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies, Great Lakes and parts of the Ohio Valley and Western Alaska have the greatest chances for wetter-than-average conditions.
- Drier-than-average conditions are favored in southern and central Alaska, Southern California, the Southwest, and the Southeast.
- The forecast for the remainder of the United States shows equal chances for below-, near- or above-average precipitation during winter months.
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