Unmasked: Goalie predictions for 2021-22 NHL season

With the 2021-22 NHL season underway, Unmasked returns along with some predictions on which goalies could have breakout seasons and which have the potential to bounce back from subpar performances last season.

Though these prognostications are being made after a little over a week of games, one lesson that jumps out from talking to NHL goalies and goaltending coaches for the past 20 seasons is not to overreact to small samples.
But here goes anyway.
Smith's success is sustainable
A popular take during the preseason was that Edmonton Oilers goalie Mike Smith would take a step back this season.
It's an easy argument to make. Smith is 39 years old, and last season was his first in the past three when he finished with a save percentage higher than the NHL average (.908), so skepticism about maintaining a .923 save percentage that was the second-highest of his NHL career, and best since a .930 save percentage nine seasons earlier with the Phoenix Coyotes, is understandable.
But Smith is a different goalie now. He made changes two years ago to the way he works out off the ice and moves on it. He has a better sense of balance and, as a result, finds himself pitched forward on his stomach far less often. He has had a second offseason to train and reinforce the improved movements he worked on with Oilers goaltending coach Dustin Schwartz, which makes another strong season for Smith a strong possibility.
Health could still be a problem for Smith, who is expected to be out a week after sustaining a lower-body injury in a 6-5 victory against the Anaheim Ducks on Wednesday.
Smith's game was demonstrably improved last season and there's no reason to assume it will regress.
The next goalie to score will be ...
Smith is the obvious answer here, having done it with the Coyotes on Oct. 19, 2013, and missing wide on a preseason attempt against the Vancouver Canucks, but don't be surprised if Tristan Jarry of the Pittsburgh Penguins or Alex Nedeljkovic of the Detroit Red Wings becomes the eighth goalie in NHL history to score into an empty net.
Jarry scored once in the American Hockey League in 2018, came inches from two more in the AHL and has talked about being eager for another good look in the NHL. So too has Nedeljkovic, who scored a goal in the ECHL in 2016 and the AHL in 2018. Add in more frequent early goalie pulls by teams trailing by more than one goal, like the Tampa Bay Lightning pulling Andrei Vasilevskiy with six minutes left in their season opener against Jarry and the Penguins, and don't be surprised if it happens sooner than later.
Holtby tops bounce-back candidates
Braden Holtby is coming off consecutive seasons with a save percentage below .900 but played behind permissive defensive teams in his final season with the Washington Capitals and his one season with the Vancouver Canucks before being bought out of his contract and signing a one-year contract with the Dallas Stars on July 28. A defensive environment in Dallas that will be a lot more predictable should benefit Holtby, who reads the game exceptionally well. Changes the 32-year-old made to his post play and movement patterns with the Canucks that didn't start to feel instinctual until late last season should help him as well.
Other goalies poised for comebacks range from the obvious in Philadelphia Flyers goalie Carter Hart, who doubled down on his foundation this summer after chasing changes last season, to longer shots like Matt Murray of the Ottawa Senators, who like Holtby is coming off two straight seasons with a save percentage under .900. Murray made adjustments last season that were always going to require time to integrate comfortably.

Demko, Petersen push for U.S. Olympic spots
Connor Hellebuyck of the Winnipeg Jets is the rightful favorite to lead the United States into the 2022 Beijing Olympics, and John Gibson of the Anaheim Ducks isn't far behind in most eyes, but don't be surprised if two goalies coming off breakout seasons make a push.
Thatcher Demko of the Canucks was better than his .915 save percentage indicated last season behind a team that didn't defend well, and Cal Petersen of the Los Angeles Kings had a .925 save percentage for the first three months of the season before fading late and finishing with a .911 save percentage behind a team well out of Stanley Cup Playoff contention. Add in impressive rookies like Spencer Knight of the Florida Panthers, Jeremy Swayman of the Boston Bruins and Nedeljkovic, a finalist in the voting last season for the Calder Trophy, awarded to the best goalie in the NHL, and the United States will challenge Russia for most depth at the position.
Practice goalies and time off
The trend of starting goalies taking practice off has been established, but Jake Allen skipping one during the first week of the season with the Montreal Canadiens in favor of an individual session with the goaltending coach may be a sign of things to come. The reality has always been that large portions of team practices, in particular rush drills, do not reflect the types of chances a goalie sees in a game and can become a waste of valuable energy for the goalies.
With no taxi squad to provide relief like last season, increased travel with the return of play outside each division, and a condensed schedule in anticipation of participation in the Olympics, expect to see more goalies prioritize managing their rest and working on their technique instead of being a target for teammates.
Vasilevskiy and the Vezina
It would be silly to overreact to two poor starts by the best goalie in the world. When it comes to the Vezina Trophy, which he won in 2019 and has been a finalist for four straight times, Vasilevskiy has become like Wayne Gretzky in his prime for hockey pools: He's such an obvious choice that you have to exclude him from the selection process to make it interesting.