Above-average temperatures are expected across the majority of the Lower 48 from New England to the Desert Southwest.

Areas from east Texas to the Carolinas have the highest probability of experiencing above-average temperatures this winter.

The Northeast, mid-Atlantic, Ohio Valley, southern and central Plains and Southwest will find temperatures near average to slightly warmer this winter.

An area that extends from the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Plains is the only part of the Lower 48 that may see a colder than usual winter.

What's Behind the Outlook?

Much of the late-fall and winter forecast is driven by a developing La Niña. As seen in the map below, La Niña is the periodic cooling of the equatorial Pacific Ocean waters, that can influence weather patterns across the globe, including in the U.S.

The winter outlook is also based on La Niña's typical influence, which usually means colder in the northern and western U.S. and warmer in the South and East.

However, La Niña is not the only factor to consider. When the polar vortex is strong or weak, the expected pattern during a La Niña (or El Niño) can change.

Last winter, the polar vortex was weak, and even though La Niña was in place, temperatures across the U.S. were closer to what is expected during an El Niño winter.

This year, there are signs that a weak polar vortex could be in play again this winter, although probably not as weak as last winter. If this occurs, more blocking weather patterns could develop, meaning cold air could surge farther south into parts of the Lower 48.

Now, let's break down what to expect during the winter month-by-month, according to The Weather Company's outlook.

December

A shift to slightly colder-than-average conditions will likely emerge from the Northeast into the Midwest and into northern Washington in December.

Warmer-than-average temperatures are anticipated from California into Texas and Louisiana, with the most anomalous warmth from southern Texas into southern New Mexico.

January

In January, temperatures will be above average from Florida and much of the South into the Great Basin and Southern California, with the most above-average temperatures stretching from central Nevada into parts of southwestern Texas.

Areas from northeastern Montana into North Dakota and northern Minnesota are expected to experience temperatures the farthest below average during what is usually the coldest month of the year.

February

The East may experience a shift to warmer-than-average temperatures in February, and temperatures will be the farthest above average from eastern Louisiana into much of Florida and northward into southern North Carolina.

Near-average or cooler temperatures are anticipated from the Northwest into the northern Great Lakes. Temperatures will once again be the farthest below average from parts of Montana into northern North Dakota.

Winter Precipitation Outlook

NOAA's outlook calls for drier than average conditions across most of the southern states from December through February. The highest chance of drier conditions is across the southwestern border, and parts of Florida extending into southern Georgia.

Wetter than average conditions are expected across parts of the Midwest and Ohio River Valley region, as well as the Northwest. A wet winter is most likely across Washington, northern Idaho, and western Montana and from Wisconsin and Illinois to Ohio.

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.