After Carlos Carrasco's surgery, where does the NY Mets starting rotation stand?

The Mets entered this offseason with more question marks in their starting rotation than anyone could have expected months ago. 

Time to add another. 

Carlos Carrasco on Tuesday underwent successful surgery to remove a bone fragment from his right elbow. The Mets said Carrasco will "resume baseball activities later this winter" after this procedure, which Mets medical director Dr. David Altchek performed at the Hospital for Special Surgery in Manhattan. 

This unexpected news brings greater uncertainty to the team's rotation for 2022.

Over the last few months, the Mets have dealt with Jacob deGrom's injuries. Marcus Stroman is set to hit the open market this winter. Noah Syndergaard returned from Tommy John surgery rehab, but only pitched two innings. Joey Lucchesi underwent Tommy John surgery over the summer and David Peterson's season was derailed because of injuries. And along with all of that, Taijuan Walker had a rough second half that has him striving for more consistent next season. 

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Now Carrasco, from whom the Mets needed a re-emergence next year, is recovering from surgery. 

For Carrasco's sake, let's hope the right-hander isn't out too long and does, in fact, resume baseball activities later this winter. But when would that be? Would he enter spring training with less of a build-up than in a healthy offseason? These are questions we must consider, especially because a hamstring injury severely affected Carrasco's first season with the Mets. 

In 2021, Carrasco posted a 6.04 ERA over 12 starts, the first of which came on July 30. The ERA is a tad funky because he struggled mightily in first innings and performed much better in the frames that followed. Carrasco allowed 18 earned runs in 12 first innings and 18 in 41 2/3 innings after the first. 

Even before Carrasco underwent surgery, the Mets needed more from him next season, which could be his final as a Met because he enters free agency after it. 

If Stroman leaves this offseason, the Mets must fill that void. They've publicly said they expect deGrom to be himself next year, but can they count on that when he didn't pitch after early July? Former manager Luis Rojas said deGrom could've pitched in the final week, but the team shut him down because that would be meaningless with the Mets out of postseason contention.

Then you have Syndergaard, who only threw fastballs and changeups — no sliders or curveballs — in his return from Tommy John. It seems likely he'll be back on a qualifying offer, if not a different deal, because he's publicly stated he wants to return. But that will be his first full season since 2019 and the Mets can't immediately rely on him to be the pre-TJ Syndergaard. (That isn't to say he won't reach that level, it's just to mention that he'll need time to get there). 

You would think the Mets will be active on the starting pitching front this winter. They don't have a choice. They actually entered last season with solid starting pitching depth, but it became depleted toward the middle of the season. And to be clear: Their rotation wasn't the reason for their disappointing season, but that idea probably shouldn't preclude them from adding to it this offseason. 

The Mets' starting pitchers finished the season ranked eighth in baseball with a combined 3.89 ERA. Six of the seven teams ahead of them made the postseason. 

But the Mets, in their times of need, used names like Jerad Eickhoff (four starts), Robert Stock (two starts) and Corey Oswalt (one start). They executed multiple bullpen games. 

And as the season progressed, the Mets' rotation — once herculean — became human.

DeGrom suffered multiple injuries, the last of which, a right UCL sprain, sidelined him for the remainder of the season. Syndergaard suffered a setback in his rehab, then later tested positive for COVID-19. Lucchesi and Peterson went down with injuries. Walker regressed in the second half. Meanwhile, Carrasco, who couldn't return until late July, tried to find his footing over the final two months. 

With everything that occurred in the Mets' rotation, and how the unit entered this offseason, the Mets needed to be able to rely on Carrasco to return to form next season. 

That can still happen, but his recent surgery brings yet another question mark to the starting rotation's future. 

Justin Toscano is the Mets beat writer for NorthJersey.com. For unlimited access to all Mets analysis, news, trades and more, please subscribe today and download our app.

Email: toscanoj@northjersey.com 

Twitter: @justinctoscano