Thursday Night Football: Bridgewater, Broncos vs Mayfield, Browns

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Broncos at Browns (-3.5): O/U 42.5

Teddy Bridgewater is a road dog. You know what that means!

For his entire career, Bridgewater is 19-4 ATS as a road dog (82.6%) and 17-3 in the last 20 (85%), per NBC’s Edge Finder. That dates back to 2014 with the Vikings.. when I was still in college!

He currently is on a six-game ATS winning streak and covered nine of the last 11 as a road underdog (81.8%) with the Panthers, Saints and Broncos. The last 20 games as a road dog are shown below.

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The Browns enter on a short week with their best position in trouble. Nick Chubb missed the previous game and Kareem Hunt is out for a few weeks with a calf strain. Cleveland signed John Kelly to play alongside D’Ernest Johnson and Demetric Felton.

Chubb is already listed as out for Thursday, so Cleveland will have to rely on the passing game, which is not ideal with Baker Mayfield‘s completely torn left labrum (non-throwing).

So far, Denver’s defense has the third-most sacks in the NFL (19) and one of 12 teams with five or more interceptions. It will not be a cakewalk for Cleveland without being able to run effectively, which leaves the door open for a competitive game.

NBC’s Model also projects the best value in this game on the Broncos +3.5, so we will ride with that and Teddy B to continue his dominance as the Road Dog King.

Both teams are coming off allowing 34 and 37 points to the Raiders and Cardinals on Sunday. Both teams suffered major injuries on the defensive side of the ball. Both teams have talked about how this is a must-win.

Cleveland has lost two straight. Denver has lost three straight.

Expect a close game in Cleveland between two 3-3 teams with the defenses being the best units on the field.

I grabbed the Broncos +3.5 at -120 odds and would play the +3, but prefer the half-point to eliminate a push.

Pick: Broncos +3.5 (1.5u)

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