Whatever the Nuggets dish out, Reggie Miller can take it. Dude’s in. Even as coach Michael Malone keeps covering his eyes with one hand while reaching for Maalox with the other.
“I think without (Jamal) Murray, they are certainly a top 4 team (in the West),” Miller, the Turner Sports analyst and Pro Basketball Hall-of-Famer said of the Nuggets, who open their season Wednesday night in Phoenix.
“I mean, you’ve got the reigning MVP in the Joker (Nikola Jokic). You just signed a max contract with Michael Porter Jr. You’re getting Will Barton back, hopefully healthy. To me, I think a top 4 (playoff) seed without Murray is absolutely within question here.”
Here’s the bigger question: If that’s the bar, can a backcourt by committee, as Barton called it, bring enough to juice to win 51 games?
Since the 2016-17 NBA Playoffs, the No. 4 seeds in the West have put up a record of 243-147, a .623 winning percentage. Over 82 games, that’s a record of 51-31.
Fifty-one wins. No Murray for months. If the Nuggets want home court in the first round of the postseason for a fourth straight spring, it starts there.
“I think the goal would be to (have) home-court,” former NBA coach Stan Van Gundy, another Turner analyst, said. “I could see (the Nuggets) there.
“But I could see them sliding out of the top 6, also. I just think without Murray, now, for a long period of time — they, along with Golden State and the Klay (Thompson) situation, and the Clippers, those three teams have a lot of question marks and could all be really good or could all struggle a little bit. But they’re all playoff teams.”
That’s the floor. As deep as the West is (again), neither analyst think it’s too salty for Malone and the Nuggets to slip out of the bracket entirely. At least as long as Jokic still has a say in the matter.
“If Denver slips down, like you said, if Murray is back and healthy, regardless of where they’re seeded, that’s not going to be a team that anybody’s looking forward to playing,” Van Gundy said of the worst-case scenario.
“Michael Porter Jr. is getting better. They get a full year with Aaron Gordon. I think (new forward) Jeff Green will be able to provide them a lot of what Paul Millsap did and maybe even more offense, at this point. All these guys are back, they’ve got great continuity. I think they’re going to be good. But Murray takes them to a whole other level.”
The ceiling is as high as your imagination. The Nuggets were 7-0 in the first seven games immediately after the Gordon trade last March.
“They’re well-coached. They understand one another. There’s good symmetry on this team,” Miller continued. “They will always have an unbelievable home-court advantage because of the altitude when people come and play in that building. So absolutely, without Murray, to me, they’re a top 4 team.
“(With) a healthy Jamal Murray, and (if) everyone is clicking, this team could very well represent the Western Conference (in the Finals).”
The Nuggets closed the ’20-21 regular season with a 13-5 record after The Blue Arrow’s knee injury, a .722 clip. They were 4-6 in the postseason without Murray, taking out the guard-centric Trail Blazers in six games before running into the Phoenix buzz saw — a 4-0 Suns sweep – in the second round.
Combined, it was a 17-11 record, for a .607 winning percentage. Apply that to an 82-game season, and you’re 50-32.
Which could be enough for home court, if everyone’s clicking. Although, if we’ve learned anything, it’s that the only things more fickle than projections are ligaments and dreams. Best keep the rosary beads close. And the Maalox closer.
