Just like last year, most predict the Oklahoma City Thunder will be at or near the bottom of the league. It’s the second year of an all-out rebuild, and last year, the Thunder ended with the fifth-worst record in the NBA.

FiveThirtyEight is particularly pessimistic about Oklahoma City. As of Monday night, the outlet didn’t simply expect the Thunder to finish in last place; it predicted the team wouldn’t even reach 20 wins.

OKC is projected to finish 19-63, by FiveThirtyEight’s rankings.

That feels extra low. When Shai Gilgeous-Alexander played last season, the Thunder were 16-19. They’re unlikely to replicate that, but that’s practically .500. Even moderate regression should net them at least 20 wins, assuming Gilgeous-Alexander does not get injured or the team does not shut him down.

Perhaps FiveThirtyEight is predicting SGA will miss a good portion of the season once again.

Last season, a year with only 72 games, only the Houston Rockets (17 wins) finished with fewer than 20 victories. The year before, again shortened due to the coronavirus, three teams finished with fewer than 20 wins: the Minnesota Timberwolves had 19 wins in 64 games, the Cleveland Cavaliers had 19 wins in 65 games, and the Golden State Warriors had 15 wins in 65 games.

Adjusted for 82 games, the Rockets (19.3 wins) and Warriors (18.9 wins) would remain under 20 wins. Will the Thunder be as bad as those two teams that suffered mass injuries?

Houston is projected to be the second-worst team and finish with 20 wins, by FiveThirtyEight’s metrics. The Orlando Magic and Detroit Pistons are both predicted to finish with 24 wins, and the Cleveland Cavaliers (25 wins) are the only other team projected to finish with fewer than 30 victories this season.

FiveThirtyEight projects the Milwaukee Bucks to finish with the best record (56-26) and a league-best 22% chance to win the NBA championship.