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We’ve got just one game on the docket for Monday, which is Game 3 of the ALCS between the Boston Red Sox and Houston Astros. While it’s a hard one to call, I do have a play on this game and will waste no more time in getting into it now.
Houston Astros (-105) vs. Boston Red Sox (-115) Total: 9
Backing a left-handed pitcher against the Houston Astros, this year’s best offense versus southpaws, is never a good idea. Getting behind a fly-ball pitcher with some barrel issues isn’t a great idea either. So, I won’t do either of those things — instead, I’ll fade both starters.
If I have to lean towards one starter, it’s probably Eduardo Rodriguez, who has arguably been the Red Sox’ best starter since the All-Star break with a 3.71 ERA. He’s striking out many more hitters this year, which helps against a team like Houston, but he hasn’t exactly had the cleanest postseason. E-Rod did strike out six over five innings of two-run ball in the ALDS, but he lasted just 1 2/3 innings in a Game 1 loss to the Rays. Given his poor track record in October, it’s hard to say he’ll throw scoreless innings here.
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Jose Urquidy’s barrel rate this year climbed to 9% on the other side of this matchup, and the Red Sox not only lead the postseason in OPS but have consistently put up ridiculous hard-hit rates for the past two weeks. Heading to a hitter’s park, on the road, things probably won’t go so well.
Both of these bullpens aren’t worth believing in, either. They both own ERAs of 3.69 — which are pretty average — but their below-average marks throughout the season make them an easy fade.
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It’s hard to say what will happen, with Houston’s talented offense surely sending a message with some early runs. I do think the Red Sox will have answers, and that should drive up the run count.
Edge: Over 9
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