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Feinberg Forecast: The Oscars Landscape in Mid-October

The Hollywood Reporter
The Hollywood Reporter
 2021-10-18
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PLEASE NOTE: This forecast, assembled by The Hollywood Reporter ‘s awards columnist Scott Feinberg, reflects his best attempt to predict the behavior of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, not his personal preferences. He arrives at these standings by drawing upon consultations with voters and awards strategists, analysis of marketing and awards campaigns, results of awards ceremonies that precede the Oscars and the history of the Oscars ceremony itself. There will be regular updates to reflect new developments.

*BEST PICTURE*

F rontrunners
King Richard (Warner Bros., 11/19, trailer )
Belfast
(Focus, 11/12, trailer )
The Power of the Dog (Netflix. 11/17, trailer )
A Hero (Amazon, TBD, TBD)
C’mon, C’mon
(A24, 11/19, trailer )
CODA
(Apple, 8/13, trailer )
Dune
(Warner Bros., 10/22, trailer )
The Harder They Fall
(Netflix, 11/3, trailer )
Parallel Mothers
(Sony Classics, 12/24, trailer )
Spencer
(Neon/Topic, 11/5, trailer )

Possibilities
The Lost Daughter
(Netflix, 12/31, TBD)
Cyrano
(MGM/UA, 12/31, TBD)
The Hand of God
(Netflix, 12/3, trailer )
Tick, Tick… Boom! (Netflix, TBD, trailer )
Titane (Neon, TBD, trailer )
Red Rocket (A24, 12/3, trailer )

Longer Shots
The Tragedy of Macbeth
(A24/Apple, 12/25, trailer )
In the Heights
(Warner Bros., 6/18, trailer )
Respect
(MGM/UA, 8/13, trailer )
Summer of Soul
(Searchlight, 7/2, trailer )
Flee
(Neon/Participant, TBD, trailer )
Annette
(Amazon, 8/20, trailer )

Still to See or Cannot Comment Yet
Being the Ricardos (Amazon, TBD, TBD)
Don’t Look Up (Netflix, 12/10, trailer )
House of Gucci
(MGM/UA, 11/24, trailer )
Licorice Pizza
(MGM/UA, 11/26, TBD)
Nightmare Alley (Searchlight, 12/17, trailer )
Swan Song (Apple, TBD, TBD)
West Side Story
(Disney, 12/10, trailer )

*BEST DIRECTOR*

F rontrunners
Asghar Farhadi ( A Hero )
Kenneth Branagh ( Belfast )
Jane Campion ( The Power of the Dog )
Denis Villeneuve ( Dune )
Reinaldo Marcus Green ( King Richard )

Possibilities
Mike Mills ( C’mon C’mon )
Pedro Almodovar ( Parallel Mothers ) — podcast
Maggie Gyllenhaal ( The Lost Daughter )
Jeymes Samuel ( The Harder They Fall )
Paolo Sorrentino ( The Hand of God )
Sian Heder ( CODA )

Longer Shots
Sean Baker ( Red Rocket ) — podcast
Pablo Larrain ( Spencer )
Joe Wright ( Cyrano )
Lin-Manuel Miranda ( Tick, Tick… Boom! ) — podcast
Leos Carax ( Annette )
Julia Ducournau ( Titane )

Still to See or Cannot Comment Yet
Paul Thomas Anderson ( Licorice Pizza )
Guillermo del Toro ( Nightmare Alley ) — podcast
Adam McKay ( Don’t Look Up ) — podcast
Ridley Scott ( House of Gucci ) — podcast
Aaron Sorkin ( Being the Ricardos ) — podcast
Steven Spielberg ( West Side Story ) — podcast

*BEST ACTOR*

F rontrunners
Will Smith ( King Richard ) — podcast
Benedict Cumberbatch ( The Power of the Dog ) — podcast
Joaquin Phoenix ( C’mon Cmon )
Simon Rex ( Red Rocket )
Jude Hill ( Belfast )

Possibilities
Nicolas Cage ( Pig )
Peter Dinklage ( Cyrano )
Andrew Garfield ( Tick, Tick… Boom! ) — podcast
Denzel Washington ( The Tragedy of Macbeth ) — podcast
Timothee Chalamet ( Dune ) — podcast
Filippo Scotti ( The Hand of God )
Jonathan Majors ( The Harder They Fall )
Oscar Isaac ( The Card Counter )

Longer Shots
Matt Damon ( Stillwater )
Adam Driver ( Annette ) — podcast
Michael Keaton ( Worth ) — podcast
Jake Gyllenhaal ( The Guilty ) — podcast
Anthony Ramos ( In the Heights )
Amir Jadidi ( A Hero )
Tim Roth ( Bergman Island )

Still to See or Cannot Comment Yet
Mahershala Ali ( Swan Song ) — podcast
Javier Bardem ( Being the Ricardos )
Clifton Collins, Jr. ( Jockey )
Bradley Cooper ( Nightmare Alley )
Leonardo DiCaprio ( Don’t Look Up )
Adam Driver ( House of Gucci ) — podcast
Ansel Elgort ( West Side Story )
Cooper Hoffman ( Licorice Pizza )
Udo Kier ( Swan Song )
Tim Blake Nelson ( Old Henry )
Dan Stevens ( I’m Your Man )

*BEST ACTRESS*

F rontrunners
Kristen Stewart ( Spencer ) — podcast
Olivia Colman ( The Lost Daughter ) — podcast
Penelope Cruz ( Parallel Mothers )
Jennifer Hudson ( Respect )
Emilia Jones ( CODA )

Possibilities
Jessica Chastain ( The Eyes of Tammy Faye ) — podcast
Tessa Thompson ( Passing )
Jodie Comer ( The Last Duel )
Frances McDormand ( The Tragedy of Macbeth )
Haley Bennett ( Cyrano )
Agathe Rousselle ( Titane )

Longer Shots
Halle Berry ( Bruised )
Sandra Bullock ( The Unforgivable )
Thomasin McKenzie ( Last Night in Soho ) — podcast
Vicki Krieps ( Bergman Island )
Marion Cotillard ( Annette )
Millicent Simmonds ( A Quiet Place Part II )

Still to See or Cannot Comment Yet
Lady Gaga ( House of Gucci ) — podcast
Alana Haim ( Licorice Pizza )
Nicole Kidman ( Being the Ricardos ) — podcast
Jennifer Lawrence ( Don’t Look Up ) — podcast
Rooney Mara ( Nightmare Alley )
Renate Reinsve ( The Worst Person in the World )
Rachel Sennott ( Shiva Baby )
Rachel Zegler ( West Side Story )

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR*

F rontrunners
Jamie Dornan ( Belfast )
Ciaran Hinds ( Belfast )
Kodi Smit-McPhee ( The Power of the Dog )
Jesse Plemons ( The Power of the Dog )
Jon Bernthal ( King Richard )

Possibilities
Ben Affleck ( The Tender Bar ) — podcast
Andrew Garfield ( The Eyes of Tammy Faye ) — podcast
Eugenio Derbez ( CODA ) — podcast
Woody Norman ( C’mon C’mon )
Timothy Spall ( Spencer )
Jimmy Smits ( In the Heights )
Forest Whitaker ( Respect )

Longer Shots
Troy Kotsur ( CODA )
Vincent Lindon ( Titane )
Idris Elba ( The Harder They Fall ) — podcast
Colman Domingo ( Zola )
Simon Helberg ( Annette )
Jeffrey Wright ( The French Dispatch )

Still to See or Cannot Comment Yet
David Alvarez ( West Side Story )
Timothee Chalamet ( Don’t Look Up ) — podcast
Bradley Cooper ( Licorice Pizza )
Mike Faist ( West Side Story )
Jonah Hill ( Don’t Look Up )
Jeremy Irons ( House of Gucci )
Richard Jenkins ( Nightmare Alley )
Jared Leto ( House of Gucci ) — podcast
Rob Morgan ( Don’t Look Up )
Al Pacino ( House of Gucci ) — podcast
Mark Rylance ( Don’t Look Up )
J.K. Simmons ( Being the Ricardos )
David Strathairn ( Nightmare Alley )

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS*

F rontrunners
Kirsten Dunst ( The Power of the Dog )
Caitriona Balfe ( Belfast )
Aunjanue Ellis ( King Richard ) — podcast
Judi Dench ( Belfast ) — podcast
Jessie Buckley ( The Lost Daughter )

Possibilities
Gaby Hoffmann ( C’mon C’mon )
Suzanna Son ( Red Rocket )
Ruth Negga ( Passing ) — podcast
Marlee Matlin ( CODA )
Dakota Johnson ( The Lost Daughter )
Ann Dowd ( Mass )

Longer Shots
Martha Plimpton ( Mass )
Milena Smit ( Parallel Mothers )
Saniyya Sidney ( King Richard )
Demi Singleton ( King Richard )
Anya Taylor-Joy ( Last Night in Soho )
Rebecca Ferguson ( Dune )

Still to See or Cannot Comment Yet
Nina Arianda ( Being the Ricardos )
Cate Blanchett ( Don’t Look Up ) — podcast
Cate Blanchett ( Nightmare Alley ) — podcast
Toni Collette ( Nightmare Alley )
Ariana DeBose ( West Side Story )
Salma Hayek ( House of Gucci )
Rita Moreno ( West Side Story )
Meryl Streep ( Don’t Look Up ) — podcast

*BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY*

F rontrunners
The Power of the Dog (Jane Campion)
The Lost Daughter (Maggie Gyllenhaal)
CODA (Sian Heder)
Dune (Eric Roth, Jon Spaihts & Denis Villeneuve)
Drive My Car ( Ryusuke Hamaguchi & Takamasa Oe)

Possibilities
Passing
(Rebecca Hall)
The Tragedy of Macbeth
(Joel Coen)
Cyrano
(Erica Schmidt)
The Many Saints of Newark
(David Chase & Lawrence Konner)
Compartment No. 6
(Juho Kuosmanen)

Longer Shots
Tick, Tick… Boom!
(Steven Levenson)
The Tender Bar
(William Monahan)
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
(Abe Sylvia)
In the Heights (Quiara Alegría Hudes)
A Quiet Place Part II (John Krasinski) — podcast

Still to See or Cannot Comment Yet
House of Gucci
(Roberto Bentivegna & Becky Johnston)
Nightmare Alley
(Guillermo del Toro & Kim Morgan) — podcast (del Toro)
Shiva Baby (Emma Seligman)
West Side Story (Tony Kushner)

*BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY*

F rontrunners
Belfast (Kenneth Branagh)
A Hero
(Asghar Farhadi)
King Richard (Zach Baylin)
C’mon, Cmon (Mike Mills)
Parallel Mothers (Pedro Almodovar) — podcast

Possibilities
Red Rocket
(Sean Baker & Chris Bergoch) — podcast (Baker)
The Hand of God
(Paolo Sorrentino)
The Harder They Fall (Jeymes Samuel & Boaz Yakin)
Spencer
(Steven Knight)
The Card Counter (Paul Schrader)

Longer Shots
Bergman Island
(Mia Hansen-Løve)
Last Night in Soho
(Krysty Wilson-Cairns & Edgar Wright)
Mass
(Fran Kranz)
The French Dispatch
(Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola & Jason Schwartzman)
Stillwater
(Tom McCarthy) — podcast

Still to See or Cannot Comment Yet
Being the Ricardos (Aaron Sorkin) — podcast
Don’t Look Up (Adam McKay & David Sirota) — podcast (McKay)
Licorice Pizza (Paul Thomas Anderson)

*BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE*

Projected Shortlist
Summer of Soul (Searchlight/Hulu)
The Rescue
(Nat Geo)
The Velvet Underground (Apple)
Flee (Neon/Participant)
Procession (Netflix)
The First Wave
(Neon) — podcast (Matthew Heineman)
Attica
(Showtime)
Found
(Netflix)
Becoming Cousteau
(Nat Geo)
Julia
(Sony Classics)
My Name Is Pauli Murray
(Amazon)
Roadrunner: A Film About Anthony Bourdain
(Focus)
Francesco
(Discovery+)
The Sparks Brothers (Focus)
Val
(Amazon)

Possibilities
Billie Eilish: The World’s A Little Blurry
(Apple)
Tom Petty: Somewhere You Feel Free
(distribution not yet announced)
Introducing, Selma Blair
(Discovery+)
Rita Moreno: Just a Girl Who Decided to Go for It (Roadside)

Still to See or Cannot Comment Yet
Ailey
(Neon)
All Light, Everywhere
(Super LTD)
A Cop Movie
(Netflix)
Bring Your Own Brigade (CBSN/Paramount)
Citizen Ashe (Magnolia)
Convergence: Courage in a Crisis (Netflix)
Cusp (Showtime)
Fauci (Nat Geo)
Homeroom (Hulu)
In the Same Breath (HBO)
The Last Forest (Gullane)
LFG (HBO Max)
The Lost Leonardo (Sony Classics)
Mayor Pete (Amazon)
Misha and the Wolves (Netflix)
Pray Away (Netflix)
The Real Charlie Chaplin (Showtime)
Rebel Hearts (Discovery+)
Sisters on Track (Netflix)
Stray (Magnolia)
Street Gang: How We Got to Sesame Street (HBO)
Torn (Nat Geo)
Who We Are (Sony Classics)

*BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE*

Frontrunners
A Hero (Iran)
Compartment No. 6 (Finland)*
Titane (France)*
The Worst Person in the World (Norway)
The Hand of God (Italy)

Possibilities
Flee
(Denmark)
Drive My Car (Japan)*
Zatopek (Czech Republic)*

Still to See
Brighton 4th
(Georgia)*
Casablanca Beats
(Morocco)*
A Chiara
(Italy)
A Cop Movie (Mexico)
Digger (Greece)*
Do Not Hesitate (Netherlands)*
Drunken Birds (Canada)*
Escape from Mogadishu (South Korea)*
The Falls (Taiwan)*
The Good Boss (Spain)*
Great Freedom (Austria)*
Hive (Kosovo)*
I’m Your Man (Germany)*
Lamb (Iceland)
Leave No Traces (Poland)*
Let It Be Morning (Israel)*
Memoria (Colombia)*
Oasis (Serbia)*
Olga (Switzerland)*
One Second (China)
Post Mortem (Hungary)*
Prayers for the Stolen (Mexico)
Sumergible (Ecuador)*
White Building (Cambodia)*

*BEST ORIGINAL SONG*

Frontrunners
“No Time to Die” — Billie Eilish & Finneas O’Connell ( No Time to Die )
“Be Alive” — Beyonce Knowles-Carter & Darius Scott ( King Richard )
“Here I Am (Singing My Way Home)” — Jamie Alexander Hartman, Jennifer Hudson & Carole King ( Respect )
“So May We Start” — Ron Mael & Russell Mael ( Annette )
“Down to Joy” — Van Morrison ( Belfast )

Possibilities (rest of shortlist)
“Every Letter” — Matt Berninger, Carin Besser, Aaron Dessner & Bryce Dessner [“The National”] ( Cyrano )
“The Anonymous Ones” — Benj Pasek, Justin Paul & Amandla Stenberg ( Dear Evan Hansen )
“My Father’s Daughter” — Glen Hansard, Cat Power & Eddie Vedder ( Flag Day )
“We Love Each Other” — Ron Mael & Russell Mael ( Annette )
“Beyond the Shore” — Nicholai Baxter, Matt Dahan, Sian Heder & Marius de Vries ( CODA )
“Believe” — Aloe Blacc & Daniel Pemberton ( The Rescue )
“Guns Go Bang” — Jay-Z, Kid Cudi & Jeymes Samuel ( The Harder They Fall )
“Home All Summer” — Lin-Manuel Miranda ( In the Heights ) — podcast
“Million to One” — Camila Cabello & Scott Harris ( Cinderella )
“Fire in the Sky” — Anderson .Paak ( Shang-Chi and the L egend of the Ten Rings )

Still to See
“Somehow You Do” — Diane Warren ( Four Good Days ) — podcast
“Never Gonna Tame You” ( The Mustangs: America’s Wild Horses ) — podcast
“At the Automat” — Mel Brooks ( The Automat )
“Secret Sister” — Rufus Wainwright ( Rebel Hearts )
“Blome Swete Lilie Flour” — Daniel Hart ( The Green Knight )
“Inside Your Heart” — Lin-Manuel Miranda ( Vivo ) — podcast
“Keep the Beat” — Lin-Manuel Miranda ( Vivo ) — podcast
“My Own Drum” — Missy Elliott & Lin-Manuel Miranda ( Vivo ) — podcast
“[not yet titled]” — Nicholas Britell, Ariana Grande & Kid Cudi ( Don’t Look Up )
“Columbia, Mi Encanto” — Lin-Manuel Miranda ( Encanto ) — podcast
“Just for Me” — SZA & Saint JHN ( Space Jam: A New Legacy )
“On My Way” — Alex Lahey ( The Mitchells vs. The Machines )
“We Win” — Kirk Franklin, Dominique “Lil Baby” Jones, Cynthia Nunn & Justin Gregory Smith ( Space Jam: A New Legacy )
“Call Me Cruella” — Florence + The Machine ( Cruella )
“Lead the Way” — Jhene Aiko & James Newton Howard ( Raya and the Last Dragon )
“Hourglass” — Mary J. Blige ( Mary J. Blige’s My Life ) — podcast
“On My Way” — Alexandra Lahey, Sophie Louise Payten & Gabriel Strum ( The Mitchells vs. the Machines )
“Chasing Dreams” — Goze & Tyler Strickland ( Changing the Game )
“Beginning Middle End” — Leah Nobel & Quinn Redmond ( To All the Boys: Always and Forever )
“Only One Way to Fly” — Jeremiah Fraites & Wesley Schultz [“The Lumineers”] ( The Starling )
“Tu Draumst [To Dream]” — Tara Nome Doyle & Isobel Waller-Bridge ( Munich: The Edge of War )

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