Guest Column: Afghanistan is not a headache for the US only - It is a global crisis

After the cold war ended, political scientist Francis Fukuyama in his famous ‘end of history thesis argued that the world does not need to go through intense conflict. With the victory of democracy and democratic ideas, the historical struggles and wars have ended. And the liberal world order and the liberal man have emerged victorious.  

Around the same time the idea of ‘unipolar moment’ – the moment celebrating the emergence of the US as the sole superpower after the demise of the Soviet Union – was made popular. The US emerged as the lone superpower and played an active role in promoting democracy and human rights in various parts of the world.  

But the situation changed after two decades. First, the world turned increasingly multipolar with the rise of China and other countries in the South. Second, religious fundamentalism inspired terrorism emerged as a prominent feature in international politics. Its acme was the 9/11. Osama bin Laden, the founder of Al Qaeda and the mastermind behind the 9/11, commanded his followers that every American taxpayer is an enemy and must be targeted. Anwar al-Awlaki, the American citizen, was inspired by Al Qaeda ideology and led its branch in Yemen. The radical group and its affiliates perpetrated violence in Kashmir, North Caucasus, Middle East, Southeast Asia, and other parts of the world. 

After the 9/11, the US expectedly attacked Afghanistan, a major base of Al Qaeda, and dismantled the terror network, but Laden eluded its grasp, to be found a decade later in Abbottabad town of Pakistan, the so-called ally. Laden’s house was not far from the military academy adjacent to the town. Pakistan expressed ignorance at Laden’s presence, but it did not need rocket science to reason how a dreaded terrorist lived close to the military academy.  

America ended its longest war in Afghanistan in August this year. But the situation there remained as fragile as it was two decades ago when the US attacked it. The Taliban, which was routed out of power then, is now in power. Reports indicate that dreaded terrorist groups like ISIS have started regrouping in the region. The US forces were attacked at the time of their departure by one ISIS variant. Experts have already predicted the region is quickly transforming into a ‘caldron of terror’, a humanitarian disaster and a new theater of civil war. 

The economy under the Taliban has collapsed. The radical group suppressed human rights and women’s freedom – valued by democratic systems. China has emerged the main patron of the Taliban, promising support, and friendly relations. But China is not going to give freebies to the war-torn country. It has large game plans – to have geostrategic leverage over Afghanistan, exploit its natural resources, make it part of its connectivity project, and use its relations as a buffer against the rise of revolt in its Muslim majority Xinjiang. But in the long run, the Chinese strategy will backfire as the radical ideology of the Taliban will fuel conflict in its restive regions.  

But in the globalized world, the conflict in Afghanistan will not be confined to the region only. The Taliban during its rule in the 1990s had destroyed ancient Bamiyan Buddhas, sheltered Laden, and other international terrorists. It is, hence, naive to expect the Taliban to speak the language of peace and act upon it. It has already proclaimed Islamic rule and declared Afghanistan an Islamic state, imposed untold restrictions on half of its population – the women-  and engaged in violent ethnic wars. And the coming days will likely see more violence and repression. Like the ISIS did earlier, the Taliban in its new avatar will use social media to attract and brainwash disgruntled youth from all over the world.  

Afghanistan is not a headache for the US only. It is a global crisis, and unless it is contained through global cooperation, it will push Afghanistan to medieval barbarity. This will have ramifications for the globe. Ideas spread rapidly like forest fire, and it will be no surprise the Taliban will find adherents all over the world, faster in this age of globalization and social media. To return to Fukuyama’s thesis, it will be safe to argue that the history has not ended, and democracy has not yet emerged victorious, and there are yet long battles – not only on the ground but also in the field of ideas – to be fought, not only locally but also globally. The US is poised to a key role in this battle.  

Debidatta Aurobinda Mahapatra, PhD, is a Professor of Political Science at the Florida State College at Jacksonviile.