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These are my first futures market wagers for the 2021-22 NBA Season. Odds via PointsBet. Be sure to check out Bet The Edge: Basketball Futures Show
To Make the Play-In Tournament: Western Conference
Sacramento Kings +175 - The Kings finished the 2020-2021 season with a 17-19 record on the Money Line in the season’s second half. That does not sound too impressive, but they suffered a nine-game losing streak to start the month of April. Outside of that losing streak there were flashes of hope for Luke Walton‘s bunch. Sacramento has a talented roster. De’Aaron Fox sets the tempo for the Kings, and when he gets rolling, the offense can put up points in a hurry. One of the Kings’ issues is the shooting of Buddy Hield. The 28-year-old shot 721 three-pointers last season, hitting 39% of them. As a result, he often can shoot the Kings out of games. They need to reign him in and give more of those shots to Tyrese Haliburton, who I believe is the Kings’ second best player. The Kings, who are 4-0 in the preseason, could very well be a top-10 team in the West.
To Make the Play-In Tournament: Eastern Conference
Toronto Raptors +110 - This is a tricky bet because I believe the Raptors can make the playoffs straight up. In the long run, teams like the Knicks, Bulls and Heat should be a little better than the Raptors, knocking them into the play-in round. What I can guarantee is that Toronto bounces back from last season. The Raptors will return to Canada for the 2021 season, and Nick Nurse will have his squad back in contention.
To Miss the Playoffs
Boston Celtics +375 - This is one of my favorite preseason wagers. The Celtics were a play-in team in the Eastern Conference last year. Their roster did not get better - it got worse. Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum are great players, but there’s nothing else on the roster that makes you think this team is a playoff lock. The Celtics have public perception and not much else.
Dallas Mavericks + 425 - The Mavericks could very well be the Celtics of the Western Conference. Both teams changed coaches in the offseason and both teams have a pair of great players. In the Mavericks’ case, they may only have one truly great player in Luka Doncic. Dallas could easily be a play-in tournament team this year, with missing the playoffs a very real possibility.
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Southwest Division Champion
Memphis Grizzlies +325 - Right now the Dallas Mavericks are -220 favorites to win the Southwest division. Yes, the same Dallas Mavericks I just bet not to make the playoffs. Well, someone has to win the Southwest and why not the team with the best roster in the division and the second best player in the division? Ja Morant will be an All-Star this season, and the Grizzlies are a deep, scrappy team. In the second half of the 2020 season, Memphis was 21-18 on the Money Line, making them the West’s sixth best team in that span.
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Eastern Conference Winners
Milwaukee Bucks +350 - The Bucks at +350 to win the Eastern Conference is one of the biggest value bets on the board. Even if you like the Nets to win the East, who do you think they will be playing in the Conference Finals?
Western Conference Winners
Denver Nuggets +1000 - I think the Denver Nuggets are in for a special season. Last year when they acquired Aaron Gordon, they looked unbeatable some nights. The late season ACL injury to Jamal Murray slowed the Nuggets down once they got into the playoffs. Murray could return to the Nuggets after the All-Star break and really be ready to go by the beginning of the playoffs. It’s not like the Nuggets aren’t a great team without Murray. The roster has the league’s reigning MVP in Nikola Jokic. Aaron Gordon made the team better when he joined and Michael Porter Jr. is one of the league’s best young scorers.
NBA Champions
Milwaukee Bucks +800 - The Bucks have the third shortest odds in the league at +800 to repeat as NBA Champions. If I were on the Bucks, I’d feel disrespected. Milwaukee has been to the mountaintop and is not scared of the big bad Brooklyn Nets. The team already has a playoff series win over them. This could very well change through the course of the season, but as of right now Milwaukee is the best team in the league.