After adding over 637,000 new cases throughout the last week, the U.S. now has more than 44.3 million confirmed cases of COVID-19. There have been more than 710,000 COVID-19-related deaths — the highest death toll of any country.

New cases continue to rise, albeit at a slowing rate. In the past week, there were an average of 28.1 daily new coronavirus cases per 100,000 Americans — a decrease from the week prior, when there were an average of 33.4 daily new coronavirus cases per 100,000 people.

While COVID-19 has spread to nearly every part of the country, cities continue to be the sites of major outbreaks. Experts agree that the virus is more likely to spread in group settings where large numbers of people routinely have close contact with one another, such as colleges, nursing homes, bars, and restaurants. Metropolitan areas with a high degree of connectivity between neighborhoods and a large population may be particularly at-risk.

The Duluth, MN-WI, metro area consists of St. Louis County, Douglas County, Carlton County, and one other county. In the past week, there were an average of 53.3 new coronavirus cases every day per 100,000 Duluth residents, greater than the national figure. The metro area’s average daily case growth in the most recent week is an increase from the week prior, when there was an average of 47.2 daily new cases per 100,000 Duluth residents.

The spread of coronavirus depends on a variety of factors and can vary even between neighboring counties. Within the Duluth metro area, COVID-19 is growing the fastest in St. Louis County. There were an average of 55.9 new cases per day per 100,000 residents in St. Louis County during the past week, the most of the four counties in Duluth with available data.

Case growth in the Duluth metro area is relatively uniform at the county level. In Douglas County, for example, there were an average of 43.0 new cases per day per 100,000 residents in the past week — the least of any county in Duluth yet relatively in line with the case growth rate in St. Louis County.

While St. Louis County is driving the growth of COVID-19 in the Duluth area, it does not have the highest incidence of cases overall. As of October 14, there were a total of 11,430.8 confirmed cases per 100,000 residents in St. Louis County, the third most of the four counties in the metro area. For comparison, the U.S. has so far reported 13,646.9 cases per 100,000 Americans nationwide.

In order to slow the spread of COVID-19, city and county governments have ordered the closure of thousands of consumer-facing businesses. These measures have led to widespread job loss and record unemployment. In St. Louis County, unemployment peaked at 11.3% in May 2020. As of June 2021, the county’s unemployment rate was 4.7%.

To determine the county in every metropolitan area where COVID-19 is growing the fastest, 24/7 Wall St. compiled and reviewed data from state and local health departments. We ranked counties according to the average number of new daily COVID-19 cases per 100,000 residents in the seven days ending October 14. To estimate the incidence of COVID-19 at the metropolitan level, we aggregated data up from the county level using boundary definitions from the U.S. Census Bureau. Population data used to adjust case and death totals came from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2019 American Community Survey and are five-year estimates. Unemployment data is from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and is not seasonally adjusted.

These are all the counties in Minnesota where COVID-19 is slowing (and where it’s still getting worse).

Rank in MSA	County	Population	New daily cases per 100,000, week ending October 14	New daily cases per 100,000, week ending October 7	Cumulative cases per 100,000	Cumulative deaths per 100,000
1	St. Louis County	199,759	55.9	49.5	11,430.8	174.2
2	Carlton County	35,633	52.6	44.1	12,115.2	179.6
3	Lake County	10,560	49.5	71.9	9,981.1	198.9
4	Douglas County	43,295	43.0	33.4	13,251.0	152.4

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