(KMAland) -- Football Friday Football Picks are here for Week 8!
Last week, Derek led the way with a 9-6 mark while Trevor was 7-7 and Ryan had an under .500 tally at 7-8. The latest standings:
Derek: 74-31 (.705)
Ryan: 74-31 (.705)
Trev: 68-31 (.687)
Here are the latest picks. Again, we are betting against the BCMoore spread for Iowa games. As always, big thank you to BCMoore for the lines, the work and the Iowa Scores Project giving us all the info on the history of each series. The picks:
Des Moines Christian (2-5, 1-3) at Shenandoah (1-6, 0-4) – BCMoore Line: Des Moines Christian by 23.63
They’ve never played. They’ve never played? Last year was canceled. This year is not.
Derek’s Pick: Des Moines Christian -23.63. Given that I have been wrong about Shenandoah many times this year, I think this is a good omen for the Mustangs. However, they haven’t been within 23.63 of a team since they beat Nodaway Valley in week two. Let’s be clear, though: If Shenandoah can avoid turnovers they will cover this spread.
Trev’s Pick: Des Moines Christian -23.63. The thought of people from Red Oak rooting for Shen makes me love the insanity of this playoff format. However, Des Moines Christian has lots of athletes and Shen is banged up.
Ryan’s Pick: Des Moines Christian -23.63. The Lions are playing for their playoff lives this week and can guarantee a spot with a win. I expect plenty of scoring in this game, but I think DMC has a little more firepower.
Red Oak (3-4, 2-2) at Clarinda (3-4, 3-1) – BCMoore Line: Clarinda by 22.51
According to the Iowa Scores Project, it’s 57-37-4 in favor of Clarinda, and the Cardinals have won 30 of the last 36 meetings. Red Oak last won in 2018. Before that it was 2015. Before that it was 2012. You see what I’m getting at here? It’s a trend. Or is it?
Trev’s Pick: Red Oak +22.51. This is a big game for the Tigers, perhaps one of the biggest in program history. I'm not saying they win, but I think they cover the 22.51 and at least give themselves a chance against Clarinda.
Ryan’s Pick: Red Oak +22.51. I'm not sure Red Oak will win this game outright, but I have a hunch that this one will be close. Red Oak has a lot to play for and I think both teams' style points to a low-possession, grind-it-out game.
Derek’s Pick: Clarinda -22.51. There’s a part of me that thinks Red Oak can run the ball, control the clock and keep this thing within four scores. The other part of me is thinking about Logan Green and company that have been controlling the line of scrimmage over the last several weeks. I think this line will end up pretty close.
Lenox (7-0, 5-0) at Fremont-Mills (5-2, 5-0) – BCMoore Line: Lenox by 22.81
Fremont-Mills has won seven of the eight meetings between the schools, including a 61-8 triumph in the last meeting in 2018. Lenox won 40-34 in 2015 for their only known win.
Ryan’s Pick: Fremont-Mills +22.81. This line is way too big for me to touch. If you like smashmouth football and big guys doing athletic things, then this matchup is for you. Both teams pride themselves on their play in the trenches and I expect a tight battle.
Derek’s Pick: Fremont-Mills +22.81. I will take the ‘dog here. Lenox is a pretty high-powered group that can score a lot of points in a short amount of time. They overpower you on both lines, and it can get ugly very fast. I’ve got this one being their first competitive game, though, and 22.81 is too much.
Trev’s Pick: No Pick. Trevor and Mike Wood are calling this game. Watch it at this very website.
Stanton-Essex (5-2, 3-2) at East Mills (4-3, 3-2) – BCMoore Line: East Mills by 5.76
East Mills has won the two meetings against Stanton-Essex. They both came in the last two seasons, and they were both pretty large totals – 69-46 and 36-12. It’s worth noting, though, that Stanton beat East Mills in 2016, 2017 and 2018.
Derek’s Pick: East Mills -5.76. The Wolverines have Ryan Stortenbecker back, and that’s a big deal. He makes them a completely different team, and it’s the kind of team that nearly knocked off Fremont-Mills.
Trev’s Pick: East Mills -5.76. I keep going back and forth and I have zero confidence in this pick. Whoever loses this game might still make it in as wildcard depending on what else happens around the state. Gimme East Mills, who I think has been slightly more impressive lately. That's right, I picked East Mills over Stanton because I love them both equally and there's no bias whatsoever.
Ryan’s Pick: East Mills -5.76. Another big game with huge playoff implications. I've been a big fan of the Wolverines this season and their ability to move the ball through the air and on the ground. I like them to score late and win this one by a touchdown.
Exira/Elk Horn-Kimballton (4-3, 2-3) at Coon Rapids-Bayard (3-4, 1-4) – BCMoore Line: Coon Rapids-Bayard by 7.71.
Exira/Elk Horn-Kimballton has won five of these eight meetings, but the Crusaders are on a little two-year streak with dominant wins each of the last two years.
Trev’s Pick: Exira/Elk Horn-Kimballton +7.71. CRB is the toughest to figure out in all of KMAland and there's a good chance they make me look silly, but the Spartans have a lot to lose. Not sure if you know this, but Tom Petersen-coached teams usually perform well in a high-stakes game and their offense is electric. Exira-EHK 54 CRB 42.
Ryan’s Pick: Exira/Elk Horn-Kimballton +7.71. I may have flipped a quarter at my desk while picking this. I'm going with the hot hand in Exira/EHK. The Spartans have figured out some things in the passing game, while CR-B has been chucking the pumpkin all year. This game will probably take three hours and will be worth every second.
Derek’s Pick: Exira/Elk Horn-Kimballton +7.71. This is a tough one. Coon Rapids-Bayard has been playing Audubon and CAM lately, so it’s hard to take a whole lot from that. Exira/EHK has definitely improved throughout the season, and I think this is a close game regardless.
Southeast Warren (4-3, 2-3) at Lamoni (3-4, 1-4) – BCMoore Line: Southeast Warren by 11.04.
Southeast Warren has won five of the seven meetings, including matchups in 1964, 1971 and 1987. Recently, though, it’s been back and forth. Southeast Warren won in 2018, Lamoni won in 2019 and then the two teams split the two matchups last year.
Ryan’s Pick: Southeast Warren -11.04. The Warhawks have been very impressive the last two weeks and are another team that has continued to grow throughout the year. This one should be another with some fireworks.
Derek’s Pick: Southeast Warren -11.04. I was high on the Warhawks at the beginning of the season, and I’m even higher on them now. Lamoni may or may not be a little banged up, and that only further supports my pick here.
Trev’s Pick: Southeast Warren -11.04. The Warhawks were pretty darn dominant last week and have been tested all season. Lamoni knocked them out of the playoffs two years ago, I think they get revenge tonight and make an absolute mess for the third spot in this district.
Mount Ayr (5-2, 4-1) at Southwest Valley (6-1, 5-0) – BCMoore Line: Mount Ayr by 7.37.
These two Pride of Iowa Conference teams matched up in 2016 and in 2017. Mount Ayr won the first one 27-17 before Southwest Valley nabbed a 14-6 victory in 2017.
Derek’s Pick: Southwest Valley +7.37. The payment didn’t come in from Coach Donahoo this week. Here’s the deal: The Timberwolves play close games. This one will be close. Closer than 7.37.
Trev’s Pick: Southwest Valley +7.37. Coach Donahoo never said anything about me picking against his team and I need to gain a game on Derek. Whoever wins this, I see it being close. That's basically the only way Southwest Valley plays football games against playoff teams.
Ryan’s Pick: Southwest Valley +7.37. Somehow, the Timberwolves just continue finding ways to win week-in and week-out. This game should feature limited possessions and another game that will be won in the trenches. If SW Valley can limit Mount Ayr's explosiveness, I think they get another win.
Riverside (5-2, 3-2) at Earlham (4-3, 3-2) – BCMoore Line: Earlham by 9.09.
There have been six matchups between the two schools since 2010, and Earlham has won all but one of them. Do you remember the one? It was kind of the kicking off point for Darrell Frain’s team, which won by a late field goal in 2018. Earlham won the last meeting – in 2019 – by a 47-21 final.
Trev’s Pick: Riverside +9.09. The Bulldogs were my district champion pick to start the year. I cannot and will not pick them to miss the playoffs. I say they get the job done behind a big night from Rhett Bentley, who was held at bay last week against Southwest Valley. Riverside 20 Earlham 16.
Ryan’s Pick: Earlham -9.09. If you had sat me down at the beginning of the year, I would have told you this game was for the district title. The stakes aren't quite as high, but still some big implications. Earlham gets some reinforcements back this week and has plenty to play for. I think they are able to keep the ball out of Riverside's hands and get a win.
Derek’s Pick: Earlham -9.09. I hate to do this, but I just think the Cardinals are going to be playing this one on a different level. They get Darrell Matchem back, and they’ve got to be fired up after a couple losses.
Westwood (4-3, 2-3) at Tri-Center (4-3, 3-2) – BCMoore Line: Tri-Center by 14.71
Westwood has won four of the six meetings between the two football programs. The last matchup, though, went to Tri-Center in 2019. That snapped a three-game skid against the Rebels.
Ryan’s Pick: Tri-Center -14.71. The Trojans have fought through a ton of adversity the last couple of weeks and come away with some big wins. They are in for another physical battle with Westwood's downhill running attack. T-C will need to survive the battering ram and put up some points of their own, but I like them to do it.
Derek’s Pick: Westwood +14.71. I’ve got Tri-Center winning this one, but I think it’s going to be a 28-14 or 28-17 type game. If it was 13.71, I probably would have gone with T-C.
Trev’s Pick: Tri-Center -14.71. The Trojans turned some heads last week and there's always the fear of a letdown, but there's too much at stake. No letdown tonight.
Nodaway Valley (3-4, 1-3) at Panorama (1-6, 0-4) – BCMoore Line: Nodaway Valley by 4.37.
In five all-time matchups, Nodaway Valley has never beat Panorama. The Panthers won in 1993 and each year from 2010 through 2013. The last three weren’t very close.
Derek’s Pick: Nodaway Valley -4.37. My favorite pick of the slate. The Wolverines are getting healthier while Panorama is going the other way.
Trev’s Pick: Nodaway Valley -4.37. The Wolverines got a big win last week to put themselves in playoff position. They take care of business tonight for another playoff berth.
Ryan’s Pick: Nodaway Valley -4.37. Things have been a little up and down this year for the Wolverines, but now their playoff destination is in their own hands. Nodaway Valley might have find a few more rushing yards to salt this one away, but I like their chances.
Creston (5-2, 2-1) at Harlan (7-0, 3-0) – BCMoore Line: Harlan by 43.30.
It’s been rare this year where there has been some history of Creston (and not Creston/Orient-Macksburg) against an opponent. Harlan and Creston met plenty from 1971 through 1986, and you might not be surprised to learn that the Cyclones did pretty well. They won 16 of the 17 meetings with Creston’s lone win coming in 1975. Harlan won the last four times they played Creston/O-M for those wondering.
Trev’s Pick: Harlan -43.30. This might be the best team in the state regardless of class. All due respect to Creston, but it's pick your poison with the Cyclones.
Ryan’s Pick: Harlan -43.30. That's a lot of points when you're talking about a 7-0 team versus a 5-2 team, but we know that Harlan is on another level. The Cyclones can strike from anywhere on the field and have shown some really good things on defense. Creston may hang around and make me lose this one, but I'm not picking against the 'Clones.
Derek’s Pick: Harlan -43.30. There isn’t a number out there right now that I don’t think Harlan can cover in most games.
Sioux City East (4-3) at Des Moines Roosevelt (4-3) – BCMoore Line: Sioux City East by 11.79.
Sioux City East is 10-1 against Des Moines Roosevelt in its history. The last meeting was in 2017 – a three-point Black Raiders win.
Ryan’s Pick: Sioux City East -11.79. This one should also feature plenty of points. The Raiders want to put the ball in the air and get things rolling. I think they will be able to do that and come away with a nice win.
Derek’s Pick: Sioux City East -11.79. I don’t have a lot of analysis on this, but I’ll go with the favorite. Going with the favorite worked quite a lot last week.
Trev’s Pick: Sioux City East -11.79. It's a long trip from Sioux City to Des Moines, but I think Luke Longval and company get the job done.
Stanberry (5-1) at East Atchison (7-0)
The two teams played two GREAT games last year with the Bulldogs winning by a total of six points. In the last 12 meetings, Stanberry has been the winner. East Atchison did win the only matchup in 2019 by an 80-12 score.
Derek’s Pick: East Atchison. I think the Wolves are out to prove a little something something this week. Those were tough, heartbreaking losses, and they have the dudes to turn that L upside down and into a W. I don’t know if that works or not, but let’s go with it.
Trev’s Pick: Stanberry. I expect this to be an 11-man game in an 8-man game's body. What I mean is: this will be physical and low-scoring. Give me Stanberry 22-20.
Ryan’s Pick: Stanberry. It's been smooth sailing so far this year for East Atchison, but the intensity gets turned up in a hurry this week. Stanberry has put the ball in the air a little more this year, but still relies pretty heavily on the ground game. These two teams always put on a great game and I expect this to be another one.
Rock Port (5-2) at South Holt (5-2)
This is the first Rock Port/South Holt matchup in quite some time with Nodaway-Holt peacing out after their 54-26 win over the Jays last year. Rock Port, historically, is 6-2 against any football team that involves South Holt since 2012.
Trev’s Pick: South Holt. Is this the best 5-2 team ever? Well, maybe except for King City. The Knights are rolling and I think they keep it that way tonight.
Ryan’s Pick: South Holt. Will the Knights make it five straight wins? Coach Josh Petersen has done a great job with his group and pushing the right buttons after some early season injuries. I think South Holt wins a close game that comes down to two-point conversions -- much like their win earlier this year against Mound City.
Derek’s Pick: South Holt. This is going to be really, really tight, and it’s a tough call. Let’s go with the home team.
Plattsmouth (7-0, 3-0) at Beatrice (5-2, 1-2)
Last year, Plattsmouth was a 35-21 winner over their district counterparts. That proved to be their last regular season game with the cancellation of Bellevue East in week nine.
Ryan’s Pick: Plattsmouth. There is no way I'm picking against the Blue Devils and Christian Meneses after what happened last week against Waverly.
Derek’s Pick: Plattsmouth. This is going to be tougher than you might expect. It’s not easy to go Norris, Waverly and then Beatrice on the road, but that’s what Coach Bob Dzuris’ team is going to have to do to win a district championship. I like them to get it done.
Trev’s Pick: Plattsmouth. The definition of insanity is doing the same thing repeatedly and expecting a different result. I picked against Plattsmouth last week and was wrong. Not doing that again. They are too darn good. Christian Meneses has another stellar night and the Blue Devils ride into the playoffs unbeaten and ready for another deep run.
Send any questions, comments and/or concerns to dmartin@kmamail.com, tmaeder@kmamail.com and/or rmatheny@kmamail.com.
