The ALCS kicks off in the Lone Star State with the Houston Astros hosting the Boston Red Sox in Game 1 of their best-of-seven series. It’s time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Red Sox-Astros prediction and pick.
The Astros looked dominant in their 3-1 series win against the Chicago White Sox in the ALDS, and the sportsbooks have them listed at +220 to win the World Series. Meanwhile, the Red Sox shocked the baseball world by taking out the Tampa Bay Rays in four games. The Red Sox are +450 to win the World Series.
Here’s how the sportsbooks have set the Red Sox-Astros odds for Game 1.
MLB Odds: Red Sox-Astros Odds
Boston Red Sox +1.5 (-159)
Houston Astros -1.5 (+139)
Over 8.5 runs (-105)
Under 8.5 runs (-115)
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Why The Astros Could Cover The Spread
Houston is expected to send Framber Valdez to the mound for his second start of the postseason. The left-hander finished the regular season with an 11-6 record and a 3.14 ERA. Valdez was great against Boston in the regular season. He went 2-0 and gave up a total of two earned runs while tallying 18 strikeouts in 14 1/3 innings.
Valdez struggled in his first postseason start this season. He pitched just 4 1/ innings and gave up four earned runs and seven hits.
H-Town vs. everybody. 🤘
🎟: https://t.co/n3pirnwZNL pic.twitter.com/dFoEyGcVZC
— Houston Astros (@astros) October 15, 2021
The Astros were the highest-scoring team in baseball during the regular season, averaging 5.33 runs per game. They have continued that trend in the playoffs. Houston averaged 7.75 runs in the four games against the White Sox in the ALDS.
Expect those runs to continue, as Houston averaged six runs in the seven head-to-head matches against the Red Sox this season.
Individually, 24-year-old Kyle Tucker has continued his breakout season. He is batting .294 this postseason and leads the team with seven runs batted in and two home runs.
Why The Red Sox Could Cover The Spread
Boston plans to give seven-time All-Star Chris Sale the start for Game 1. Sale only started in nine regular-season games this year and missed all of the 2020 season due to Tommy John surgery. He went 5-1 in those nine regular-season starts with a 3.16 ERA.
That said, Sale struggled in his first playoff start in the ALDS against the Rays. He pitched just one inning and gave up five earned runs on four hits, including a home run.
We got some baseball to play. pic.twitter.com/JG42CJ1YLy
— Red Sox (@RedSox) October 15, 2021
The Red Sox had one of the greatest hitting displays in recent postseason history in the previous round. They had nine different players with over five hits against the Rays and a home run from seven different players.
Individually, Enrique Hernandez is leading the team with the highest postseason batting average at a remarkable .435. He is also currently second in MLB for the most postseason hits with 10.
Final Red Sox-Astros Prediction & Pick
The outcome of this game could go either way, so the best bet would be to take the over at 8.5. Both sides were great offensively last round. They should be able to continue their hitting dominance in Game 1, as both pitchers showed flaws in their previous postseason starts.
Additionally, the Red Sox have exceeded a game total of 8.5 runs in four of their five playoff games this postseason, while the Astros have done so in three of their four.
FINAL RED SOX-ASTROS PREDICTION & PICK: Over 8.5 runs (-105)
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