There's only so much to glean from any preseason basketball game, but especially the Portland Trail Blazers' exhibition finale. Damian Lillard isn't playing on Friday night against the Golden State Warriors, and Chauncey Billups, remember, sees all preseason games as nothing more than a glorified extension of training camp practices anyway.
No matter what happens on Friday, basically, nothing will change with respect to what we know about the Blazers heading into the regular season. No takeaway from their trio of ugly exhibition losses to date was exactly surprising, either. With the season opener less than a week away, Portland doesn't seem much different now from the team it was before Media Day.
These are the five biggest questions facing the Blazers entering 2021-22.
Can The Defense Keep Up?
It would be shocking if Portland finished outside the top-10 in offensive rating this season. Lillard dragged this team to basketball'ss second-best offense a year ago with C.J. McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic missing the same significant chunk of the schedule. Additions like Larry Nance Jr, and Cody Zeller provide most on defense, but are plenty functional offensively. It tracks that Billups' emphasis on ball movement, dribble penetration and early offense would make Lillard and C.J. McCollum more efficient.
Even if the adjustment from Terry Stotts' offensive system to Billups' doesn't go as smoothly as it could, the other end of the floor will still decide Portland's ceiling most. The schematic change the Blazers are making defensively is a massive one, and may not be best suited for the talents of Nurkic—not to mention a quartet of offense-first guards standing 6'3”. If there's anything to take away from the preseason, it's that widespread and longstanding concerns about the Blazers' defense pervade.
Going from the league's 29th-ranked defense—above only the historically porous Sacramento Kings—last season to 20th this season could be enough for Portland to move a rung up the championship hierarchy. The Brooklyn Nets were at a 55-win pace in 2020-21 with basketball's best offense and 21st-ranked defense. That type of recipe seems realistic for the Blazers, especially considering how solid they were defensively with Nurkic on the floor after he returned from injury last March—not to mention how much less exploitable this team's personnel deficiencies are before the playoffs.
Will The New Offense Pay Off?
The tenets of Billups' offensive system are sound. Pretty much everything about how he wants to play aligns with the league's increasing emphasis on small-ball, pace and the value of shots at the rim and from beyond the arc.
Lillard and McCollum really would be most optimized—on both ends, it bears mentioning—by spending a bit more time off the ball, and Nurkic really is underutilized as a passing fulcrum from elbows and top of the key. Norman Powell, Anfernee Simons and Nassir Little are better as play finishers than starters. Nance unlocks small-ball lineups with real secondary playmaking verve; Zeller is a canny screener and quick decision-maker.
Billups' bet is that playing a more egalitarian, opportunistic style will pay off come the postseason regardless of what it means for Portland's offense before then. Situationally, like when the Blazers need a bucket in crunch-time of a close playoff game, that variability would no doubt prove beneficial. Lillard can always choose to put on the cape, but he couldn't just take it off in the past whenever he needed a breather or the offense got too repetitive. Lillard will have that option next spring if all goes according to plan, and the Blazers will be an even more difficult team to defend because of it.
But best-laid plans go awry. Portland isn't talented enough to reach its offensive peak if Lillard—and to a lesser extent, McCollum—isn't maximized. Much of the Blazers' potential to thrive in Billups' scheme hinges on skill development and overall growth from individual players that isn't guaranteed. The offense is almost bound to be elite this season, but what it looks like and how it operates in the playoffs will likely remain question marks until Portland gets there.
Are Anfernee Simons and Nassir Little Ready?
Billups has taken the training wheels off of Simons, publicly affording him floor-general responsibilities with the Blazers' second unit. Little was first off the bench in the preseason opener, and Billups mentioned him emerging as Portland's designated stopper of superstar wings. But even if they don't live up to training camp hype of offering reliable, impactful production off the bench, Simons and Little are poised to play real roles for the Blazers this season—ones for which they may not be ready.
Simons is entrenched behind Lillard and McCollum as a combo guard. The only current paths Portland has toward reducing his role is dipping into lineups featuring both Robert Covington and Nance on the wing or giving some of his minutes to Little. Portland doesn't have another perimeter player on the bench with even a semblance of playmaking ability outside Simons. Little's role is less concrete. He'd have been competing for the ninth spot in the rotation if Tony Snell hadn't injured his foot, but it's obvious the Blazers would be at their most flexible and dynamic if Little won that spot outright.
The line between the play-in tournament and home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs could be razor thin in the Western Conference. If Portland wants to be on the right side of it, Simons and Little need to pop.
What Happens When The Injury Bug Bites?
The Blazers are woefully thing up front, and giving Marquese Chriss their “final” roster won't change that—especially given his recent injury history. Nurkic, Zeller and Nance are imminent health risks, too. Portland could perhaps get by with one of those three out, playing small more frequently while giving Chriss a couple short stints in each half.
But a prerequisite of this team reaching its utmost potential was always its whole becoming something much greater than the sum of its parts. That won't happen if one of the Blazers' top nine suffers serious injury or even a rash of more minor maladies rob them of the continuity needed to get there. Portland's depth is much better than its been in recent years, but still not strong enough to stand up to the prolonged absence of a major contributor.
Keep that in mind when the injury bug bites during the regular season, no matter what part of Billups' playing rotation it afflicts.
Could Damian Lillard Change His Mind?
Lillard says he's all-in with the Blazers, steeled by the confidence instilled in him from time with Team USA that he really can win a championship where it would matter to him most. It would be a stunning rebuke of both his recent comments on the matter and overall public persona if Lillard demanded a trade from Portland before the trade deadline. All reporting since August has suggested he'd give Billups and the Blazers this season before revisiting the possibility of a departure from Portland.
Frankly, there's no realistic on-court development imaginable that could change the current status quo, and off-court disasters that could shake Lillard's faith in the organization beyond its breaking point aren't worth speculation here. He's not going anywhere this season, no matter how much national talking heads and irrational opposing fan bases hope otherwise.
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