San Jose Sharks outlook: Five predictions for the upcoming season

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SAN JOSE – It’s remarkable to think how much change the Sharks have undergone over the last two-and-a-half years.

Less than 10 players from the 2018-19 team that advanced to the Western Conference final are expected to be in the Sharks’ lineup Saturday night when they play the Winnipeg Jets at SAP Center.

Since that 2019 series with the St. Louis Blues, which was the Sharks’ last appearance in the postseason, the coaching staff has been revamped, the goaltending’s been overhauled, team legends have left, and players’ contracts have been bought out.

And the change is far from over.

The next six-plus months will also carry a certain amount of upheaval, and here are our predictions for what the upcoming season will bring.

TOMAS HERTL WILL BE TRADED: Sharks fans have seen franchise icons like Patrick Marleau, Joe Pavelski, and Joe Thornton leave San Jose via free agency in recent years.

Hertl could be next. He is in the last season of a four-year. $22.5 million deal he signed in 2018 and is slated to become an unrestricted free agent next summer.

Hertl has been one of the Sharks’ most productive and popular players since his arrival in San Jose eight years ago. Only four players have more points for the Sharks since the start of the 2013-14 season than Hertl – Brent Burns (483), Pavelski (425), Logan Couture (410), and Thornton (391).

But Hertl wants to win more than anything else, and it’s fair to wonder if he wants to stick around if the team isn’t going to be a Stanley Cup contender.

If he doesn’t, the Sharks have a chance to acquire assets for him in the form of draft picks or perhaps a prospect before he hits the open market. They’d have to do it if they’re not in the playoff picture.

The Sharks and Hertl could still reach an agreement on a new contract extension by the NHL’s new trade deadline in March. But if not, it seems highly unlikely that the Sharks would just hold onto Hertl for a meaningless stretch run when they have the chance to get something significant for him.

2. BETTER DAYS AHEAD FOR KARLSSON, BURNS: Burns and Karlsson combined for just 51 points last season – a level of production that’s not commensurate with their compensation. Just for comparison’s sake, the NHL top-scoring defenseman last season, Edmonton’s Tyson Barrie, had 48 points by himself.

There’s reason to believe, though, that Burns and Karlsson can have better seasons in 2021-2022, starting with what the team hopes is an improved power play. The Sharks’ power play ranked 29th in the NHL last season 14.1 percent, a drop from 16.4 percent from the year before.

With a fresh start under new assistant coach John MacLean, the Sharks are aiming for about a 20 percent success rate with the man advantage. For now, Burns and Karlsson are on different power-play units, and the Sharks have looked decent throughout the preseason with the man advantage.

Percentage-wise, Burns’ offensive zone starts went from 65.3 to 52.4 to 42.8 over the last three years.  Maybe that improves this season, too.

SAN JOSE, CALIFORNIA – AUGUST 19: San Jose Sharks’ William Eklund (72), with Team Marchment, celebrates his goal against Team Ricci in the first period of the 2021 Sharks Prospects Scrimmage at the SAP Center in San Jose, Calif., on Thursday, Aug. 19, 2021. (Nhat V. Meyer/Bay Area News Group) 

3. THE KID STAYS: William Eklund will make his NHL debut Saturday at home, and then the clock for him starts to tick. Because Eklund is on an entry-level contract, the Sharks have the option of returning him to Sweden before he plays his 10th NHL game without burning the first year of the deal.

Eklund has the skill and appears comfortable enough is his surroundings to stay here for the entire season. There are bound to be ups and downs, but Eklund is also mature enough to handle that kind of adversity.

4. ADIN HILL WILL PLAY AT LEAST 55 GAMES: Given the amount of travel they usually have in an 82-game season and the compressed schedule all teams will face post-Olympics, the Sharks will need two goalies playing well to have a shot of making the playoffs.

But Hill appears to be at a stage of his career where he’s ready to be a No. 1 goalie in the NHL. In fact, the more work, the better. Two years ago he played 49 games between the AHL and NHL and last season he started 10 straight games from March 23 to April 11, going 6-4-0 with one shutout – against the Sharks – and a .908 save percentage.

If Hill plays well, he’s going to get most of the starts.

SAN JOSE, CALIFORNIA – SEPTEMBER 28: San Jose Sharks head coach Bob Boughner watches the game from the bench against the Los Angeles Kings in the second period at the SAP Center in San Jose, Calif., on Tuesday, Sept. 28, 2021. (Nhat V. Meyer/Bay Area News Group) 

5. BOB BOUGHNER STAYS PUT: Sharks general manager Doug Wilson said on July 28, the first day of NHL free agency, that he believes the Sharks are a playoff team.

That raised the stakes for this season. The ’reset’ as Wilson coined it, was over. Now it was time for the team to get back into the playoffs.

There are serious doubts as to whether the Sharks can remain in the mix for a playoff spot. But Boughner and his staff will have earned some credit for keeping everyone on the same page and if the team shows noticeable improvement, they should be allowed to stay on for at least another season.

(BONUS PREDICTION — EVANDER KANE WILL AGAIN PLAY IN THE NHL): From all indications, if the NHL’s investigation finds that Kane did indeed submit a fake COVID-19 card, it won’t necessarily be enough to void his contract. Nick Kypreos reported that the NHL is leaning toward suspending Kane for off-ice behavior and that he’ll be eligible to return once he serves a suspension.

Whether Kane will return to the Sharks or possibly go to another team is still unknown. But it’s our belief that Kane’s career is not totally over, and that he will be able to resume playing again if nothing further comes up and no criminal charges are filed.

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