Why the next decade is extremely dangerous for China and the United States

.

For the United States and China, the next decade is one of maximum peril. The possibility of a military conflict between the two countries is increasing. The likely flashpoint is Taiwan.

Over the past several weeks, China has significantly ratcheted up its military aggression, flying a record number of military flights over Taiwan. Beijing claims the island democracy as part of its territory. Seth Cropsey of the Hudson Institute warned: “These actions are a calculated attempt to test Taiwanese defenses, identify weak points, and gather tactical and operational intelligence for a future attack on the island republic.”

Taiwan Defense Minister Chiu Kuo-Cheng lamented that the situation is “the most serious” that he has seen in his nearly half-century career. Beijing’s saber rattling over Taiwan is not new. In 1996, China conducted a missile exercise and amassed troops, suggesting a possible invasion. The Clinton administration eventually sent two naval carriers toward Taiwan, and China backed down.

China has long coveted Taiwan.

But the aftermath of the Second World War, Mao’s disastrous economic policies, and then the 1970s rapprochement with the U.S. meant action wasn’t feasible. Still, the Chinese Communist Party leadership has remained obsessed with bringing what it regards as a breakaway province to heel. The difference now is that China thinks, and not unreasonably, that its objective is within reach. The chief reason for the apparent change in Beijing’s strategic calculus?

Deterrence. Or, more specifically, the lack thereof.

The U.S. has been the dominant power in the Asia Pacific since the end of the Second World War, but in recent years it has lost its ability to deter aggression from its rivals. Beijing has watched countries such as Russia successfully alter international boundaries — and it has noted that many in the so-called international community are unwilling to punish Moscow. Xi Jinping’s inner circle has also witnessed the disastrous U.S. handling of the withdrawal from Afghanistan. Perhaps they have concluded that the U.S. military isn’t what it used to be.

Chinese military planners may also have done some basic math and found that the military balance of power in the region is decidedly in their favor. There is a significant disparity between the capabilities and scale of China’s People’s Liberation Army and those of Taiwan. U.S. naval superiority is also far from what it used to be. Put simply: The U.S. looks not only weak but also looks wanting. This, and Taiwan’s own lackluster preparedness, could lead to the CCP calculating it would be possible to present the island’s seizure as a fait accompli.

In order to reduce the likelihood of conflict, Washington must prioritize deterrence. The best way to prevent war is to discourage it.

Sean Durns is a Washington D.C.-based foreign affairs analyst. His views are his own.

Related Content

Related Content