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This article outlines the best daily fantasy MLB plays of the day at every position. We take a comprehensive look to uncover these core recommendations, factoring respective salaries into the analysis.
Please note, these player picks were organized early in the day. For MLB contests, always check lineups and weather closer to game time. Rain, wind, or unexpected managerial decisions could open up additional sources of value. Be sure to keep an eye on the MLB Headlines and Injuries desk.
UPDATE: Charlie Morton will pitch for the Braves on short rest. The Brewers picks below remain relevant although they all take a hit in projected outcome. Short rest always increases meltdown risk. In this case, I think the Braves made a wise choice.
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PITCHER
Top Play: Lance McCullers – Astros (at White Sox)
McCullers turned a corner this year, pushing to six or more innings in 17 of 28 starts. In past seasons, he had issues finishing the sixth frame. This being a playoff game, McCullers projects for just under six innings with roughly seven strikeouts. He’s the likeliest by a wide margin to reach double-digit punchouts. The only other pitcher with a plausible shot at 10 strikeouts is Carlos Rodon.
Pivot: Huascar Ynoa Charlie Morton – Braves (vs Brewers)
Ynoa’s remarkable season ended with a whimper. In six September starts, he worked to a 6.52 ERA. He was plagued by home runs (1.55 HR/9) during the slump, but his peripherals were otherwise solid including 10.55 K/9 and 2.79 BB/9. There’s a high risk of a short burst outing today – something like three to four innings. It’s probably the best way to use him anyway since he has a reliever’s two-pitcher repertoire.
Instead of Ynoa as originally expected, Morton will return on short rest. He’s coming off an 85-pitch, nine-strikeout outing on Friday. Pitching on short rest is associated with a five to 20 percent decline in effectiveness, depending upon how one cuts the data. Facing the same team twice in a short span is also associated with a sharp drop in effectiveness. In this case, these effects overlap. Bettors should be especially wary of Morton which could result in him being undersubscribed.
Also Consider: Carlos Rodon, Eric Lauer, Anthony DeSclafani, Tony Gonsolin
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CATCHER
Top Play: Will Smith – Dodgers (vs DeSclafani)
DeSclafani is moderately susceptible to hitters with high launch angles like Smith. The Dodgers backstop has a little worse than a one-in-four chance to homer. As the probable fifth hitter, he’s also in a good spot for run production.
Pivot: Travis d’Arnaud – Braves (vs Lauer)
In the past, d’Arnaud has shown confusing hints of a platoon split without ever consistently demonstrating a specific trait. To me, I think this is all statistical noise and he has a standard platoon advantage (about five percent better than without). In just 48 plate appearances this season, d’Arnaud hit .256/.396/.436 with more walks than strikeouts against southpaws. Again, I don’t think that’s real. As a pivot, he’s a reasonable dice roll, especially since Lauer has modest home run issues (1.21 HR/9).
Also Consider: Yasmani Grandal, Buster Posey, Omar Narvaez, Martin Maldonado
FIRST BASE
Top Play: Freddie Freeman – Braves (vs Lauer)
For his career, Lauer actually has reverse platoon splits. That’s not uncommon for pitchers with good changeups. Freeman definitely prefers right-handed pitchers though he’s still an above average batter against same-handed hurlers. While Freeman looks alright against Lauer, there’s a pretty strong chance he’ll see Josh Hader and/or Aaron Ashby later in the game. All that said, he projects to lead first basemen in total hits and run production.
Pivot: Rowdy Tellez –Brewers (at Ynoa Morton)
Tellez has a lovely initial matchup against a right-hander who pitches to his strengths. Morton appears to be a neutral or slightly worse matchup for Tellez. Since the rowdy slugger is so cheap, he’d be a top value against any pitcher. He still carries about a one-in-five chance for a dinger. Watch out for the Atlanta bullpen. It features a number of southpaws who could neutralize Tellez.
Also Consider: Jose Abreu, Yuli Gurriel, Darin Ruf, Matt Beaty, Gavin Sheets
SECOND BASE
Top Play: Trea Turner – Dodgers (vs DeSclafani)
Turner leads the slate in multi-hit potential, and he’s also among the top five in expected run production. His 20 percent shot at a homer is also competitive in this tiny slate. It should be noted he’s not an efficient use of resources, although that’s true of most second basemen.
Pivot: Kolten Wong – Brewers (at Ynoa Morton)
Wong is the best dollar-for-dollar value among second basemen. Overall, it’s a relatively tepid projection built upon delivering multiple hits and scoring runs. As such, he probably should be paired with other Brewers… such as the two I’m about to discuss.
Also Consider: Ozzie Albies, Jose Altuve, Tommy La Stella, Cesar Hernandez, Leury Garcia
THIRD BASE
Top Play: Austin Riley – Braves (vs Lauer)
Since his arrival in the league, Riley has shown incredible growth as a hitter. He now features a balanced distribution of grounders and air balls backed by an optimized average launch angle. His barreled and hard contact rates are among the best in the league too. In his case, I’m leaning almost entirely on his 2021 campaign when forming expectations. When you see tepid projections for Riley today, it’s because those systems are borrowing too much from 2019 and 2020.
Pivot: Eduardo Escobar – Brewers (at Ynoa Morton)
Escobar has a loopy swing which matches well against Morton’s ground ball style. Left-handed hitters had far more success at lifting the ball against Ynoa, although that didn’t yield better results in a small sample. While Ynoa didn’t have harsh platoon splits this season, his profile typically struggles to contain opposite-handed hitters.
Also Consider: Justin Turner, Alex Bregman, Chris Taylor, Evan Longoria, Luis Urias, Yoan Moncada
SHORTSTOP
Top Play: Willy Adames – Brewers (at Ynoa Morton)
Adames is perhaps the biggest threat in the Brewers lineup. He has the capacity to hit for contact and power with enough lift to overcome a groundballer like Morton. He matches decently against the Braves entire relief corps. Like my writeup of Riley, multi-year projection systems are undervaluing Adames.
Pivot: Dansby Swanson – Braves (vs Lauer)
Of the six probable starters at shortstop, Swanson is easily the worst. For that reason alone, he’ll almost certainly carry the lowest rostership. His odds of leading the position are worse than one-in-six but probably better than one-in-12. Lauer and friends make for a neutral matchup. Swanson also comes as a neutral dollar-for-dollar value.
Also Consider: Corey Seager, Carlos Correa, Tim Anderson, Brandon Crawford, Luis Urias
OUTFIELD
Top Plays: Mookie Betts – Dodgers (vs DeSclafani)
Jorge Soler – Braves (vs Lauer)
Luis Robert – White Sox (vs McCullers)
Betts is in a virtual tie with teammate Trea Turner for top play of the slate. Whereas Turner hold an edge in multi-hit potential, Betts leads the contest with a better than one-in-four chance to homer. Their run production expectations are both top five. Soler gives you similar home run potential at a much cheap price tag, albeit at the cost of multi-hit potential. He’s also not quite as saucy a play for run production. Robert is an ever-present risk to run away with a slate. Much like Turner, his broad-based skills can lead to wild point totals, even against difficult opponents like McCullers and friends.
Pivots: LaMonte Wade – Giants (at Gonsolin)
Jake Meyers – Astros (at Rodon)
Keep an eye on lineups. The Giants tend to mutate from game-to-game. If Wade is somewhere in the top five hitters, he’s a steal. A patient contact hitter with a feel for barreled contact, Wade is a well-rounded point-producer. The Dodgers only have a couple left-handed relievers. There’s some substitution risk but it’s minimal. The Astros remain noncommittal to selecting a starting center fielder. Jose Siri has been battling a finger injury so expect to see Meyers or Chas McCormick. They’re all down-lineup, above average hitters priced like scrubs.
Also Consider: Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, Michael Brantley, Christian Yelich, Avisail Garcia, Lorenzo Cain, Adam Duvall, Eddie Rosario, Kris Bryant, Mike Yastrzemski, Cody Bellinger, A.J. Pollock, Eloy Jimenez, Leury Garcia