For the first time since before the November 2020 presidential election, two leading bookmakers have placed Donald Trump as the favorite to win the 2024 election.
BetOnline offers 11-4 on Trump winning, followed by incumbent Joe Biden at 13-4. and Vice President Kamala Harris third with odds of 5-1.
Republican Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida trails Harris with odds of 10-1, ahead of Pete Buttigieg at 16-1, Nikki Haley at 18-1 and Mike Pence at 20-1.
Immediately after his November defeat, Panama headquartered BetOnline offered odds of 33-1 on a Trump victory in the 2024 Election. That number fell to 12-1 in January this year.
"Biden's approval rating is falling, and it looks less likely than ever that he will be able to get his agenda through Congress," BetOnline political oddsmaker, Paul Krishnamurty, told Newsweek. "A defeat at the mid-terms (70 percent likely) would further tie his hands and likely make for a very uncomfortable couple of years after 2022. It's hard to see his brand being as strong the second time around. Running again, aged 81, may make little sense.
"Harris meanwhile isn't cutting through as VP or a viable alternative. Thus the Democrats look set to have a weak hand in 2024," he added.
"While Trump may well still be indicted, the longer authorities wait, the more it will appear politically motivated and the more likely to get tied up in legal delays. It isn't clear that the Jan. 6 Commission will deliver either. The effect may 'detoxify' Trump and the issue itself.
"Finally, no serious challenge is emerging to Trump. Liz Cheney looks likely to lose in Wyoming, and therefore deter others from taking him on. The nomination appears to be Trump's for the taking. But 2024 is probably still a tossup, like most presidential races of recent times."
The bookmaker puts Trump as an even-money favorite (1-1) to represent the Republican Party in 2024.
Betfred has also given Trump the winning odds for the first time since before the November election.
The Republican is now 4-1 favourite to triumph in 2024, with Biden drifting to 9-2.
When Biden won the election, Betfred offered 4-1 odds on him to win again in 2024, with a Trump victory at 7-1.
Betfred spokesman Peter Spencer said: "That's the first time we have had Trump as favourite for a shock return. Biden is facing big challenges after pledging to unite America. With political punting on markets both here and abroad proving increasingly popular, interest in whether Trump can do it again and come from nowhere to become the most powerful man on the planet is on the rise. We have had several big bets on Trump back in 2024 including one customer betting £1,000 at 9/2."
Other bookmakers rank Trump as joint first in 2024 with Democratic candidates.
Betway for example, gives Trump 4-1 odds, tying with Biden and Harris.
At William Hill, Trump is also joint favorite with Biden at 7-2. Harris has 9-2 odds, while DeSantis comes fourth with 11-1.
However, Trump is not ranked first at Ladbrokes, with Biden being the 7-2 favorite. The former Republican president has odds of 4-1.
Betfair also puts Trump second at 4-1, narrowly behind Biden at 10-3.
Trump has not formally confirmed he will be running in 2024 but has teased the possibility multiple times. If Trump runs does, it's likely the Democratic Party would throw its weight behind Biden, but his falling approval rating could spell trouble for him in a head-to-head matchup.
Biden has seen his ratings drop amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and the U.S. withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan.
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
About the writer
Jack Dutton is a Newsweek Reporter based in Cape Town, South Africa. His focus is reporting on global politics and ... Read more
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