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MIAMI MARLINS
2021 Record: 67-95
Last Place, NL West
Team ERA: 3.96 (11th in MLB)
Team OPS: .671 (29th in MLB)
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WHAT WENT RIGHT
It’s easy to point out the negatives for a team that lost 95 games -- and there are plenty -- but there were some positives for Miami that suggest a bright future. Chief among them was the starting pitching, as Miami had one of the best rotations in the sport despite their poor record. Sandy Alcantara posted a 3.19 ERA with 23 quality starts, and looks to be on the verge of potential stardom -- for a pitcher, anyway. Trevor Rogers and Pablo Lopez were limited to a combined 235 2/3 innings, but they were an impressive 235 2/3 innings with both pitchers showing swing-and-miss stuff and the ability to locate it for the most part (272/72 K/BB ratio). The offense will be mostly featured in what went wrong, but there were some bright spots. Even while hitting just .248, Jazz Chisholm showed star potential with 18 homers and 23 steals; an impressive season even when you don’t consider he was just 23. Another 23-year-old, Jesus Sanchez, registered an .808 OPS with 14 homers in just 64 games, and looks to be a long-term part of the Miami lineup.
WHAT WENT WRONG
This was a bad offensive baseball team, and that was even with Starling Marte hitting .305/.405/.451 in 64 games before he was dealt to the Athletics. The other two starting outfielders -- Corey Dickerson and Adam Duvall -- were also moved in deadline deals, and outside of Sanchez, there wasn’t much production from the replacements. BrIan Anderson was limited to just 67 games and wasn’t very good in them with a .715 OPS, and players like Jorge Alfaro, Miguel Rojas and Lewis Brinson both were well below-average in their chances. Below-average is being nice, in this case. And the pitching -- while far better than the hitting -- wasn’t without its flaws. No starter outside of Alcantara was able to work more than 133 innings, and they didn’t get a single inning out of Sixto Sanchez after Sanchez picked up a shoulder injury before the season began. But again, it was the offense that turned what could have been a team that was right around .500 into a team that’s going to pick sixth in the 2022 MLB Draft.
FANTASY SLANTS
** In the first half, Rogers looked like an ace. In his first 14 starts, the southpaw had an ERA of 1.87, a 95/26 K/BB ratio and had hitters hitting just .199 with a .562 OPS. From that point on, the 23-year-old was not awful, but didn’t come close to matching those numbers with a 3.86 ERA in his final 51 1/3 innings over 11 starts. So, which version of Rogers are we going to see in 2022? The latter numbers still suggest value -- and at 24-year-old, he should be more consistent, since that’s usually how it works -- but there were enough mediocre efforts down the stretch to suggest he might not be ready to be an SP1 in 2022.
** The return for Marte was Jesus Luzardo, and it’s fair to say that his season with the Athletics and Marlins was disappointing. In 12 starts, the southpaw struck out 58 hitters in 57 1/3 innings, but he also posted a 6.44 ERA while dealing with command issues (32 walks) and allowing nine homers over his dozen starts. It was not long ago that Luzardo was considered one of the best pitching prospects in baseball and he’s had MLB success before, and Luzardo will start the 2022 season as a 24-year-old, so there’s still reason for optimism. But the crowded Miami pitching staff and his struggles make him a very risky option to begin the year.
** Another one of the few Miami hitters who offered a decent fantasy season was Jesus Aguilar, and you could argue that he was the best offensive player for the Marlins with 22 homers, 93 RBI and a 112 OPS+. Not including Marte, of course. He’ll turn 32 in June and his season ended after a knee injury caused surgery, so it’s likely that Aguilar doesn’t begin the season on many fantasy radars. Based on what he’s shown for most of his career, he could be a late-round steal.
** After serving as a solid bridge for a few clubs including the Dodgers, Dylan Floro got a chance to operate as the Miami closer at the end of the year, and he handled the role pretty well. He finished the season with 15 saves with a 2.81 ERA, and he made up for so-so strikeout totals (62 in 64 innings) by initiating plenty of weak contact. This is not an elite closing option -- and there are a few arms that could challenge Floro for the role to begin the season -- but assuming he does begin the year as the Miami stopper, he does have the stuff to be a decent, albeit flawed, option.
** Sanchez was one of the most impressive arms of the 2020 season, and came into the 2021 year with a tremendous amount of hype and for good reason. Now the question is obviously what fantasy managers can expect from the right-hander in 2022, and the answer is nothing. That’s not to say that it would be a shock at all if the 23-year-old was a contributor with his elite stuff, but after missing an entire year and considering that Sanchez has never thrown more than 114 innings in a professional season makes him one of the most volatile options for 2022. There’s just as much risk as there is reward.
** Just how good can Chisholm be? A 23-year-old infielder who challenged for a 20-25 season -- and it was in only 124 games -- is obviously intriguing. At the same time, this is also a player that struck out 145 times in 507 plate appearances, and he needed a .319 batting average on balls in play to reach that .248 average. Expecting a higher BABIP for someone with Chisholm’s speed isn’t crazy, but the contact issues for Chisholm are significant and can’t be ignored. Still, the power/speed combination makes him a potential star, and the fact he has shortstop eligibility next year is tough to ignore, as well.
Key Free Agents: With all due respect to Joe Panik and Sandy Leon, there are none.
Team Needs: Not starting pitching, that’s for sure. We didn’t even get a chance to talk about Edward Cabrera and Max Meyer -- two of the most talented young right-handers in baseball -- and arms like Elieser Hernandez, Zack Thompson and Braxton Garrett all impressed at times. It’s unlikely Miami is going to be a spender in free agency, but if they’re going to compete in 2022, they’ll need to upgrade on offense -- particularly in the outfield -- and there are very few offensive positions that don’t offer a chance to be upgraded.