After drudging through a putrid second half of baseball in San Diego, Padres fans again find themselves watching the playoffs from the periphery, dreaming about what could have been.

Going into the 2021 season, it was widely accepted that A.J. Preller had assembled a formidable lineup, rotation, and bullpen after "winning" the prior offseason and the 2020 trade deadline. Blowing up the budget and draining the prospect pool was supposed to be acceptable collateral damage to build this World Series-bound team.

Fast-forward seven months, and we see a team that missed not only the playoffs but also a winning record. The second-half collapse revealed a lack of leadership, depth, and talent. Unfortunately, limited prospect capitol and a tapped-out payroll from Preller’s wheeling and dealing will greatly reduce the chances of the team acquiring the types of players that will be needed to make a difference in 2022.

To add insult to injury, the 2021 playoff rosters are littered with players that Preller exiled from San Diego. If you have been watching, you saw Max Fried shut down the Brewers in game two of the Division Series; Trea Turner batting third in Dodgers’ star-studded lineup; Yasmani Grandal batting cleanup for the White Sox; both Hunter Renfroe and Manuel Margot patrolling the outfield for their respective clubs in the Red Sox/Rays series; and both Luis Urias and Eric Lauer contribute for the Brewers.

With all of these familiar names still playing in October while the Padres sit at home, I can’t help but wonder, what value did the Padres get in return for these and other players? What would the roster look like if Preller had been less active on the trade market? Would there still be room in the payroll to make significant additions? What would the Hot Lava talent look like?

These questions filled me with curiosity, leading me down a deep dive into Preller’s trade history. Now, the idea of criticizing a man who’s wheeling and dealing netted a 17-year-old shortstop that may go on to become the best player in Padres history is ridiculous. These trades also resulted in the Padres’ only no-hitter (Joe Musgrove) and all three of its cycles (Matt Kemp, Wil Myers, and Jake Cronenworth), all of which rank as top moments in Padres’ history. Still, as I scrolled deeper and deeper down the Padres’ list of transactions, I saw a team (and fan base) that may have been better off in 2021 and beyond had Preller never made a trade.

This article attempts to articulate what I found and answer the question: What if the Rockstar GM had never made a trade?

Before I show my work, there are a few assumptions that were made in constructing a roster that ignored all trades over the past five-plus years. First, I assumed that the Padres would have extended the contracts of the players traded away at the price tag actually paid to the players by their subsequent clubs.

Second, and perhaps less realistic, I assume that the performance of the traded players would have been the same had they played half of their home games in Pectco Park in 2021. To try and account for the scenery differences, I cite to park-adjusted metrics like OPS+ and ERA+.

Finally, this work of revisionist history assumes that the Padres’ free agent signings, draft picks, and other non-trade transaction would have remained unchanged despite the altered needs of the club due to the trades.

Now, with these assumptions out of the way, here we go.

Preller was hired by the Padres on August 5, 2014. If he never made a trade during his tenure with the team, the Padres 2021 roster, payroll and minor league depth would have played out as follows.

Catcher

When Preller joined San Diego, he inherited 25-year-old catcher Yasmani Grandal and 21-year-old prospect Austin Hedges. Grandal was quickly traded away to the Dodgers in exchange for Matt Kemp. Hedges was included as a (small) part of the Mike Clevinger deal last year. Instead of these two backstops, the 2021 Padres ran out primary catchers Austin Nola and Victor Caratini.

The statistical breakdown for each of these catchers in 2021 is reflected as follows:

	AB	H	BA	R	HR	RBI	SB	OPS	OPS+
Nola	173	47	.272	15	2	29	0	.716	101
Caratini	313	37	.227	33	7	39	2	.632	78
Grandal	279	67	.240	60	23	62	0	.939	157
Hedges	286	51	.178	32	10	31	1	.527	43

Clearly, the 2021 Padres would have been better off with Grandal batting somewhere in the middle of the lineup providing much needed protection for Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr.

First Base

For good or bad (mostly bad), Eric Hosmer would remain the first baseman of the 2021 Padres on this re-worked 2021 team as he was acquired through free agency and not trade. Still, it is worth noting (and discussed in the section on the 2021 bench, below), had Ty France not been traded away to Seattle as part of the Austin Nola trade, he – and his slash line of .291/.368/.445 – would likely have stolen much of Hosmer’s playing time (especially against lefthanded pitchers) during the 2021 season.

It is safe to say that the first base position for the 2021 Padres would have been much improved with France sharing time with Hosmer.

Second Base

Second base if the first position we reach where it can safely be said that Preller’s wheeling and dealing actually improved the 2021 club.

This past season, Jake Cronenworth served as the Padres’ primary second baseman.

However, because was acquired along with Tommy Pham from the Rays for Hunter Renfroe and Xavier Edwards two years ago, he would not be manning second base in 2021 as part of this alternate no-trade simulation. Instead, that honor would have gone primarily to Luis Urias, who Preller traded away to the Brewers along with Eric Lauer in exchange for Trent Grisham and Zach Davies.

The numbers of the two second basemen compare as follows:

	AB	H	BA	R	HR	RBI	SB	OPS	OPS+
Cronenworth	567	151	.266	94	21	71	4	.800	122
Urias	490	122	.247	77	23	75	5	.789	111

While Cronenworth had the statistical edge over Urias in 2021, those numbers are not as lopsided as I anticipated. Still, Preller’s trade for Cronenworth did improve the 2021 team.

Third Base

As a free agent signee, Manny Machado continues to man third base even in this alternate, no-trade simulation.

Shortstop

If you have made it this far, I expect this to be the point in the article where many of you stop reading. A world without Fernando Tatis Jr. on the Padres is no world we want to be in. Assuming Preller’s trade rights had been stripped from him as this alternate reality assumes, he would not have been able to fleece the White Sox for Tatis (in exchange for James Shields) back on June 4, 2016. Tatis would not be a Padre today.

Still, this also assumes that Preller would not have traded away shortstop and perennial all-star Trea Turner as part of the Wil Myers deal. As the numbers suggest, the 2021 dropoff from Tatis to Turner is not dramatic.

	AB	H	BA	R	HR	RBI	SB	OPS	OPS+
Tatis	478	135	.282	99	42	97	25	.975	166
Turner	595	195	.328	107	28	77	32	911	146

While Tatis flashed significantly more power than Turner, Turner won the batting title and provided more consistency for his teams by playing in 18 more games than Tatis on the year. Still, it is safe to conclude that Preller’s trade benefited the 2021 team (and beyond).

Left Field

All of the Padres’ primary outfielders for 2021 were acquired through trade. It can be argued that the production of this group was the single biggest letdown of the 2021 season. Needless to say, if we stripped away Preller’s trade powers, the San Diego outfield would have had a vastly different look.

Starting with leftfield, Tommy Pham would not be on the team as he was acquired from the Rays along with Cronenworth, as mentioned above. Likewise, without any trades, the Padres would still be saddled with Hunter Renfroe – which, the numbers suggest, would have been a net positive for the 2021 year.

	AB	H	BA	R	HR	RBI	SB	OPS	OPS+
Pham	475	109	.229	74	15	49	14	.724	103
Renfroe	521	135	.259	89	31	96	1	.816	112

While the trade worked out because it netted Cronenworth, the inclusion of Pham was not a positive for the 2021 team.

Center Field

Center field reflects what would arguably have been the biggest statistical and talent drop-off had Preller never made a trade. All regular center fielders on the Padres during Preller’s tenure have been acquired via trade (Wil Myers, Manuel Margot, and Trent Grisham). This was for good reason; the Padres have been unable to develop or sign a capable major league center fielder with the potential exception of Mallex Smith, who’s production dropped off a cliff after being traded from the Rays to the Mariners. Hopefully, Robert Hassel changes this.

In 2021, however, other than those names mentioned above, Travis Jankowski is the only former Padre centerfielder to contribute to a major league roster. Still, his part-time play in Philadelphia hardly qualifies as a replacement for Grisham.

Instead of Jankowski, the re-imagined 2021 club would need to do what Preller did for chunks of the 2021 anyway, and plug Jurickson Profar into center. Although Profar originally came to San Diego from Oakland in a trade for Austin Allen and Buddy Reed, he later signed as a free agent.

The Grisham/Profar 2021 comparison is below.

	AB	H	BA	R	HR	RBI	SB	OPS	OPS+
Grisham	462	112	.242	61	15	62	13	.740	106
Profar	353	80	.227	47	4	33	10	.649	83

Even with what we hope was a down year for Grisham, Preller’s wheeling and dealing significantly upgraded the centerfield position for the 2021 team.

Right Field

Wil Myers, acquired in the 2014 trade involving Trea Turner, has served as the Padres’ primary right fielder for the past few seasons. Outside of a strong 55-game stretch during the shortened 2020 season, he has never had an OPS+ above 115.

In hindsight, Preller’s decision to give up Turner for Myers has been a severe blow to the future of the organization. Yet, it may have been Preller’s decision to double down on his affinity with Myers – by committing an $83 million extension, including a 2021 salary of $22.5 million – that hurt the 2021 team the most as it was unable to take on significant additional salary at the trade deadline that may have turned around the club’s 2021 fortunes.

On the other side of things, just before the 2019 trade deadline, Preller traded away the much beloved Franmil Reyes (along with Logan Allen and Victor Nova) as part of a three-team trade in exchange for outfielder Taylor Trammell. Trammell was later jettisoned to Seattle (with Ty France, Andres Munoz and Luis Torrens) in exchange for Austin Nola, Austin Adams and Dan Altavilla.

The final 2021 numbers of Myers and Reyes are as follows:

	AB	H	BA	R	HR	RBI	SB	OPS	OPS+
Myers	442	113	.256	56	17	69	8	.768	113
Reyes	418	106	.254	57	30	85	4	.846	127

Although Reyes was a defensive liability (and now a full-time DH for the Indians), his presence in the middle of the 2021 lineup would likely have provided Tatis and Machado the protection they needed. Also, the additional money the Padres could have saved would likely have allowed for a much bigger splash at the 2021 trade deadline.

Bench

In addition to a second catcher, the 2021 Padres’ bench typically consisted of 3 position players. The three with the most at-bats in 2021 were Profar, Adam Frazier (acquired via trade from the Pirates), Ha-Seong Kim (an international free agent signee), and Jorge Mateo (acquired via trade from the Athletics and, in August, selected off waivers by the Orioles). In this alternative reality, Profar, as mentioned above, becomes the team’s everyday centerfielder. Kim remains with the team for 2021, while Frazier and Mateo do not.

Instead, the Padres would likely have seen significant contributions from some combination of the since jettisoned infielder Ty France, centerfielder Travis Jankowski, and utility man Jace Peterson.

A comparison of the players 2021 stats is below.

	AB	H	BA	R	HR	RBI	SB	OPS	OPS+
Kim	267	54	.202	27	8	36	6	.622	73
Frazier	577	176	.305	83	5	43	10	.779	114
Mateo	87	18	.207	10	2	6	5	.572	59
France	517	166	.291	85	18	73	0	.813	128
Jankowski	131	33	.252	24	1	10	5	.715	96
Peterson	259	64	.247	36	6	31	10	.714	93

In retrospect, the retention of France would have been positive for the 2021 club and possibly rendered the trade for Frazier (and the cost in both prospect capitol and salary) moot.

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Rotation

The five pitchers with the most starts for the Padres in 2021 were Joe Musgrove (acquired via trade from the Pirates), Yu Darvish (acquired via trade from the Cubs), Blake Snell (acquired via trade from the Rays), Chris Paddack (acquired via trade from the Marlins), and Ryan Weathers (a 2018 first round draft pick of the Padres). The next pitcher with the most starts in 2021 was Dinelson Lamet (an international signee in 2014).

Other than Weathers and Lamet, none of these starters make the cut for this reimagined no-trade team. Incredibly, Preller’s trades involving starting pitching may prove as the GM’s low point.

In 2014, Preller traded away prospect Max Fried to the Braves as part of the Justin Upton trade. One day earlier, he gave away Zach Eflin to the Dodger (along with Yasmani Grandal and Joe Weiland) for Matt Kemp and Tim Federowicz. Joe Ross was included in the Trea Turner trade for Wil Myers. More recently, Preller traded away Eric Lauer to the Brewers, Cal Quantrill to the Indians, and Luis Patino to the Rays.

A statistical comparison of what was and what could have been for the Padres’ 2021 team is below:

	GS	IP	W	L	ERA	SO	WHIP	ERA+
Musgrove	31	181.1	11	9	3.18	203	1.081	122
Darvish	30	166.1	8	11	4.22	199	1.094	92
Snell	27	128.2	7	6	4.20	170	1.321	92
Paddack	22	108.1	7	7	5.07	99	1.265	77
Fried	28	165.2	14	7	3.04	158	1.087	145
Quantrill	22	149.2	8	3	2.89	121	1.176	152
Lauer	20	118.2	7	5	3.19	117	1.138	134
Ross	19	108	5	9	4.17	109	1.222	97
Eflin	18	105.2	4	7	4.17	99	1.249	100
Patino	15	77.1	5	3	4.31	74	1.267	92

The 2021 Padres would have lost 110 starts without the additions of Musgrove, Darvish, Snell and Paddack. However, as the numbers suggest, these starts would have been comfortably replaced by significantly stronger performances from the younger and cheaper Fried, Quantrill, Lauer, Ross, Eflin, and Patino.

Needless to say, Preller’s track record on trading starting pitching is not great.

Bullpen

Preller, like all other GMs, has made a multitude of transactions involving relief pitchers during his tenure with the Padres.

The majority of the 2021 Padres bullpen came together through free agency. Key contributors Craig Stammen, Drew Pomeranz, Mark Melancon, Pierce Johnson, Nabil Crismatt, Nick Ramierz, and Keone Kela were all signed by Preller. Only Tim Hill, Matt Strahm, Emilio Pagan, Austin Adams, and Daniel Hudson came via trades.

Specifically, Hill came from the Royals in exchange for Franchy Cordero and Ronald Bolanos. Strahm arrived before the 2017 trade deadline as part of the package for Ryan Buchter, Trevor Cahill, and Brandon Maurer. Pagan was the return from the Rays for Manuel Margot. Adams was part of the Ty France/Austin Nola deal with the Mariners. And Hudson came over from the Nationals just before the 2021 trade deadline in exchange for Mason Thompson and Jordy Barley.

While the 2021 Padres bullpen proved to be a strength of the team until around August, it certainly could have used some reinforcements down the stretch. Had Preller never made a trade, those reinforcements would have been plentiful, with Jayce Tingler able to pick and choose from the likes of Emmanuel Clase (traded to the Rangers for minor leaguer Brett Nicholas), Brand Hand and Adam Cimber (both included for Francisco Mejia), David Bednar (part of the Musgrove deal), and Phil Maton (traded for international money).

The 2021 statistics of the relief pitchers acquired by Preller through trade compared to those traded away look like this:

	G	IP	SV	ERA	SO	WHIP	ERA+
Hill	78	59.2	1	3.62	56	1.240	108
Strahm	6	6.2	0	8.10	4	2.400	51
Adams	65	52.2	0	4.10	76	1.196	95
Pagan	67	63.1	0	4.83	69	1.168	81
Hudson	54	51.2	0	3.31	75	1.084	122
Clase	71	69.2	24	1.29	74	.962	340
Hand	57	56	21	3.38	56	1.179	121
Cimber	72	71.2	1	2.26	51	1.074	191
Bednar	61	60.2	3	2.23	77	.973	190
Maton	65	66.2	0	4.73	85	1.440	93

Notably, Clase has become a star at only 23 years of age. Cimber and Bednar are also well above average arms that the team could have used in 2021. Again, Preller’s trade prowess did not benefit the 2021 club.

2021 Roster Comparisons

Having concluded our walkthrough of each position and the differences that could have occurred had Preller been stripped of any ability to make a trade, we can now compare the actual active roster of the 2021 Padres with that of the re-imagined 2021 roster using the statistic WAR (Wins Above Replacement) to get an idea of how much better/worse the re-imagined roster could have been.

2021 Actual Active Roster --------------------- 2021 Potential Active Roster

Name	2021 Salary*	2021 WAR		Name	2021 Salary*	2021 WAR
Austin Nola (age 31)	$571k	0.9	C	Yasmani Grandal (32)	$18.2M	3.7
Eric Hosmer (31)	$21M	1.0	1B	Eric Hosmer (31)	$21M	1.0
Jake Cronenworth (27)	$584k	4.8	2B	Luis Urias (24)	$575k	3.0
Manny Machado (28)	$32M	5.1	3B	Manny Machado (28)	$32M	5.1
Fernando Tatis Jr. (22)	$1.7M	6.6	SS	Trea Turner (28)	$13M	6.5
Tommy Pham (33)	$8.9M	1.4	LF	Hunter Renfroe (29)	$3.7M	2.4
Trent Grisham (24)	$589k	3.2	CF	Jurickson Profar (28)	$4.33M	0.0
Wil Myers (30)	$22.5M	0.8	RF	Franmil Reyes (25)	$602k	1.6
Victor Caratini (27)	$1.3M	0.0	Bench	Austin Hedges (28)	$3.2M	0.0
Adam Frazier (29)	$4.3M	4.0	Bench	Ty France (26)	$587k	4.2
Jurickson Profar (28)	$4.33M	0.0	Bench	Travis Jankowski (30)	$570k	0.4
Ha-Seong Kim (25)	$7M	2.1	Bench	Ha-Seong Kim (25)	$7M	2.1
Joe Musgrove (28)	$4.45M	3.5	SP	Max Fried (27)	$3.5M	5.4
Yu Darvish (34)	$19M	1.4	SP	Cal Quantrill (26)	$586k	3.9
Blake Snell (28)	$11.1M	1.4	SP	Eric Lauer (26)	$570k	2.3
Chris Paddack (25)	$610k	-0.8	SP	Zach Eflin (27)	$4.4M	1.8
Ryan Weathers (21)	$570k	-0.3	SP	Joe Ross (28)	$1.5M	1.4
Mark Melancon (36)	$4M	2.1	RP	Mark Melancon (36)	$4M	2.1
Drew Pomeranz (32)	$8M	0.7	RP	Drew Pomeranz (32)	$8M	0.7
Craig Stammen (37)	$4M	1.5	RP	Craig Stammen (37)	$4M	1.5
Pierce Johnson (30)	$2M	1.0	RP	Pierce Johnson (30)	$2M	1.0
Nabil Crismatt (26)	$585k	0.3	RP	Emmanuel Clase (23)	$571k	2.8
Tim Hill (31)	$596k	-0.1	RP	Adam Cimber (30)	$925k	1.7
Austin Adams (30)	$580k	0.1	RP	David Bednar (26)	$579k	2.1
Emilio Pagan (30)	$1.57M	-0.3	RP	Luis Patino (21)	$570k	0.1
Daniel Hudson (34)	$5.5M	0.8	RP	Phil Maton (28)	$975k	0.0
Totals: (Avg. age 29.1)	Salary $167.3M	WAR 41.2		Totals: (Avg. age 28.1)	Salary $136.9M	WAR 56.8

[*2021 salary information was obtained from spotrac.com.]

Somewhat incredibly, the above chart shows that when comparing the Padres actual 2021 roster to the potential 2021roster, the re-imagined team would have had a significantly lower payroll, a lower average age, and a significantly higher WAR. Stated differently, had Preller never made a trade, the 2021 Padres team would have been better, younger, and cheaper.

Still, at the risk of rubbing salt into the wound, Preller’s trades have had another significant impact that we have yet to address – the utter depletion of the Padres’ minor league talent and depth.

Minor League Depth

Without Preller’s trades, the Padres minor leagues would arguably continue to challenge for the top spot in most minor league rankings. In addition to the Padres retaining the rights to the young major league talent identified in the above roster, stripping Preller of the ability to make a trade also would have kept the following players in the Padres’ organization:

Top Prospects (according to MLB.com)

Xavier Edward (Rays No. 3; No. 70 in top 100)

Gabriel Arias (Indians No. 4; No. 82 in top 100)

Reginald Preciado (Cubs No. 8)

Cole Wilcox (Rays No. 8)

Tucupita Marcano (Pirates No. 9)

Owen Cassie (Cubs No. 9)

Matt Brash (Mariners No. 10)

Hudson Head (Pirates No. 12)

Blake Hunt (Rays No. 15)

Junior Perez (Athletics No. 15)

Ronald Bolanos (Royals No. 24)

Jordy Barley (Nationals No. 25)

Omar Cruz (Pirates No. 26)

Jack Suwinski (Pirates No. 29)

Current MLB/MiLB players

Logan Allen

Roman Wick

Mason Thompson

Owen Miller

Andres Munoz

Franchy Cordero

Other notable MiLB players

The list of other notable minor league players traded away by Preller includes the following: Diomar Lopez, Joey Cantillo, Drake Fellows, Hudson Potts, Dauris Valdez, Michell Miliano, Logan Driscoll, Jeisson Rosario, Yeison Santana, and Ismael Mena.

Conclusion

Consistent with that of the Padres’ actual 2021 roster, this re-imagined roster was not likely to challenge for the 2021 World Series. Still, it is easy to imagine that the $30 million in financial savings and retained prospect capital could have been used by Preller to add serious, impact talent at the 2021 trade deadline and possibly changed the team’s fortunes on the year. Of course, this also assumes that Preller’s in-season trades would have paid off for the team – something that we now see is not likely to have occurred.