RJ’s over/under predictions for Golden Knights
What’s the point of having a hockey team in Las Vegas if you can’t have a little fun?
The Review-Journal’s annual over/under predictions are back for the Golden Knights’ fifth season, and these were trickier than normal. The NHL’s schedule format is back to normal after a condensed, division-only format last season. That makes things harder to predict.
Here’s our best guesses anyway. Make sure to check back at the end of the regular season to see how we did.
Golden Knights points (106.5)
Ben Gotz: OVER
They were on a 120-point pace last season. It’s hard to see them being seven wins worse.
Ed Graney: UNDER
Only if they’re playing NHL22 on Xbox.
Adam Hill: OVER
I like the construction of this team, and it’s capable of easily surpassing this number, but the concern is whether anyone in the division can challenge the Knights enough to make them play hard until the end of the season.
David Schoen: UNDER
They have to venture outside of the friendly confines of the Pacific Division and can’t pad their analytics against a handful of bottom feeders.
Knights division finish (1.5)
Ben Gotz: UNDER
Unlike last season, this race doesn’t look as if it’s coming down to the wire.
Ed Graney: UNDER
This is favoring the Tampa Bay Buccaneers over UNLV, and then there are these dudes in the Pacific.
Adam Hill: UNDER
Even if there are lulls or injuries, there doesn’t seem to be much competition in a weak division.
David Schoen: UNDER
Who is going to challenge them? Edmonton? Calgary? Seattle? It’s sure not the California teams.
Mark Stone points (81.5)
Ben Gotz: UNDER
Stone has hit the point-per-game mark twice. This team probably doesn’t need that from him.
Ed Graney: UNDER
Master of his fate, captain of his soul (and team) … Stone last totaled 80-plus as a member of the Kelly McCrimmon Wheat Kings.
Adam Hill: UNDER
While Stone has made himself into a point-per-game player with the Knights, he’s never played 82 games in a season.
David Schoen: UNDER
This is about how many games Stone plays as much as it’s about his offensive production. To be fair, though, he missed only one game last season.
Max Pacioretty goals (32.5)
Ben Gotz: OVER
If he fills the net this well, he should be a lock to play for Team USA in Beijing.
Ed Graney: OVER
Call it motivation for Nick Suzuki. That’s the remark.
Adam Hill: UNDER
This is a big ask for someone who will turn 33 during the season, especially on a team that might not be playing many meaningful games late in the season.
David Schoen: UNDER
But he will reach the 30-goal mark for the second time in four seasons with the Knights.
Shea Theodore points (60.5)
Ben Gotz: OVER
Theodore hit the under by 0.5 points last season. Second time’s the charm?
Ed Graney: UNDER
His high is 46 in seasons of at least 70 games played. Big number, even for that fancy wrister from the blue line.
Adam Hill: OVER
The last time the NHL completed an 82-game schedule, five defensemen eclipsed this total. Theodore definitely has a shot to be in the top five in scoring from the blue line.
David Schoen: UNDER
If the power play improves, he has a chance. But let’s see him top 50 points first before we go this high.
Alex Pietrangelo points (52.5)
Ben Gotz: OVER
He had four, yes, four power-play points last season. Expect that to go up.
Ed Graney: UNDER
His reaction to the number: “Oh, boy.”
Adam Hill: UNDER
He’s exceeded this number once in his career. Pietrangelo is poised for a huge season, but this is a big ask.
David Schoen: OVER
If Playoff Pietrangelo shows up for an 82-game schedule, he will challenge his career high.
Jonathan Marchessault goals (24.5)
Ben Gotz: OVER
One of the Knights’ most consistent players just keeps on trucking.
Ed Graney: OVER
The guy supposedly has, like, 10 ovens at his house. A serious heat check, baby.
Adam Hill: OVER
He keeps finding ways to annoy opponents and put pucks in nets.
David Schoen: OVER
“Carl’s Stone Cold Lock of the Century of the Week.”
William Karlsson points (56.5)
Ben Gotz: UNDER
His penalty kill usage might get dialed back, which could affect his total.
Ed Graney: OVER
Happy. Healthy. Engaged. Hockey hair. Living large. Due for a big season.
Adam Hill: UNDER
He had 56 in his last full season when he played all 82 games in 2018-19. While he’s a capable contributor on offense, he will be able to focus on being an elite defensive forward.
David Schoen: OVER
Quietly, he was on pace to exceed this mark last season. And you never have to worry about whether he’ll be in the lineup.
Reilly Smith goals (21.5)
Ben Gotz: OVER
Even-year Smith always delivered. He has an expiring contract to motivate him, too.
Ed Graney: UNDER
Should this include wherever he is moved to at the trade deadline?
Adam Hill: UNDER
There are so many mouths to feed in this lineup. I somehow get the feeling he’ll finish at 20 or 21.
David Schoen: OVER
If the preseason is any indication, the Misfit Line should have a big season.
Evgenii Dadonov goals (22.5)
Ben Gotz: UNDER
It’s possible, but feels ambitious for a guy starting on the third line with a new team.
Ed Graney: OVER
The kid was born in Chelyabinsk, Russia, where they might eat their young when it drops to 44 below. Twenty-three goals? Pfft.
Adam Hill: OVER
He knows why he’s here. Dadonov scored 25 or more goals in three straight seasons before last season’s shortened schedule and should get plenty of chances to bolster the Knights’ anemic power play.
David Schoen: UNDER
Gut instinct says we’re more likely to see the Ottawa version of Dadonov as opposed to the one that had three straight 25-goal seasons in Florida.
Contact Ben Gotz at bgotz@reviewjournal.com. Follow @BenSGotz on Twitter.