SPORTS BETTING

ALDS Game 4: Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and prediction

Skip Snow
Sportsbook Wire

The Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox continue their best-of-five American League Division Series Monday with a 7:07 p.m. ET first pitch at Fenway Park. Let's analyze the lines around the Rays vs. Red Sox with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Collin McHugh is the projected starting pitcher for Tampa Bay. He was 6-1 with a 1.55 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 10.4 K/9, and 1.7 BB/9 over 64 IP across seven starts and 32 relief appearances in the regular season.

  • Allowed 3 ER over 1 2/3 IP in Game 2 of the ALDS. That came after he allowed just 3 ER through 12 2/3 IP over the last 33 days of the regular season.
  • Figures to serve as the opener for a bullpen game.
  • Current Boston batters own an aggregate .904 OPS against him.

LHP Eduardo Rodriguez is the projected starter for Boston. Rodriguez was 13-8 with a 4.74 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 10.6 K/9, and 2.7 BB/9 through 157 2/3 IP across 31 starts and one relief appearance in the regular season.

  • Allowed 4 base runners and a pair of runs over 1 2/3 IP in an ALDS Game 1 relief appearance. Owns an 8.49 ERA in 11 2/3 career playoff innings.
  • Clocked a 3.26 ERA over the last two months of the regular season. Has been a solid betting choice over the second half, mostly due to a wide gulf between his ERA and expected-ERA figures. Posted a .363 batting average on balls in play during the regular season, which made his surface numbers look dodgier than deserved.
  • Current Tampa Bay batters own an aggregate .845 OPS against him.

Rays at Red Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:35 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Rays -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Red Sox -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Rays -1.5 (+140) | Red Sox +1.5 (-175)
  • Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -102 | U: -122)

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Prediction

Red Sox 5, Rays 4

Money line (ML)

Boston heads into Game 3 with a 2-1 series lead after C Christian Vasquez homered in the bottom of the 13th inning in Sunday's game, a 6-4 Red Sox triumph at Fenway Park. The Rays look to stay alive after winning 100 games and the AL East crown in the regular season.

Peg Rodriguez and the Red Sox as a value in this spot. Boston has the look of a team hitting a peak at the right time. The Sox are 6-1 over their last seven games and 14-6 over their last 20.

BACK BOSTON (-115).

Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS on the extra juice here.

Over/Under (O/U)

The concept of "cluster luck" pegs the Rays' offense as being way overvalued. The "ability" to cluster hits, walks, and extra-base knocks in bunches such that more runs are produced is not really an ability at all but more of a set of random occurrences. Mix in a play on Rodriguez and perhaps a benefit of Tampa Bay using its bullpen this game, then add a cooler night and a slight inward breeze helping the pitchers on both sides.

TAKE THE UNDER 9.5 (-122).

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