The Atlanta Hawks should close out games with this lineup

The Atlanta Hawks are coming off of their first win of the preseason; a 91-87 scrap with the Memphis Grizzlies. Now 1-2, they don’t take the floor again until Thursday, when they’ll host the Miami Heat for the two squads’ second meeting of the exhibition period.

It’s unclear how many of the regulars we’ll see in that one at this point after they didn’t practice on Sunday.

We do know that Trae Young, Delon Wright, and Gorgui Dieng are all dealing with issues picked up this preseason. Meanwhile, De’Andre Hunter is dealing with soreness as Clint Capela and Onyeka Okongwu are out until the regular season and January, respectively.

With all of the shuffling through the preseason, one thought comes to mind as it relates to the regular season.

This Atlanta Hawks lineup got little time together last season but should close games in 2021-22

This past April, Bleacher Report’s Dan Favale released his list of every NBA team’s best five-man lineup. They based this on weighing a particular group’s net rating against its sample size and the performance of the team’s averaged lineup. For the Hawks that consisted of Young, Kevin Huerter, Tony Snell, Danilo Gallinari, and Capela.

They also provide the disclaimer that their methods could result in groupings that teams wouldn’t use to close out high-leverage situations like the end of a playoff game.

Looking at the lineup, one immediately notices John Collins’ absence.

Bleacher Report noted how the Hawks best lineup would likely feature one of Collins or Capela, as opposed to both. But we saw during the playoffs that Collins’ scoring ability would often outweigh Capela’s defensive ability and rebounding.

Last season’s rebounding champ, Capela finished seventh in the regular season in fourth-quarter minutes, often ceding floor time due to his poor free-throw shooting.

Swapping in Collins for Capela is an easy solution.

There’s less than a point per game difference in their fourth-quarter scoring but the former wound up with a better plus-minus in the final frame of games. Interestingly enough, though, Capela had the better plus-minus in the playoffs despite remaining seventh in fourth-quarter minutes.

Still, even with Capela’s extension locking him in as a core member, the $125 million contract Collins signed this offseason should portend a greater return.

With Collins at the five, sliding De’Andre Hunter to the four would help slow down penetration in front of him. When healthy, the third-year wing obviously provides that much better than Gallo. But he was also more efficient overall than his veteran teammate.

Hunter shot 49.2 percent from the floor while shooting 41.7 percent from deep. Compare that to Gallo who shot 39.7 percent from the floor and 44.6 percent from beyond the arc and the tradeoff is more than worth it with the obvious caveat being Hunter’s injury history leaving him with a smaller sample size.

Now, aside from no longer being with the team, Snell was always replaceable. With Kevin Huerter, what you potentially lose in three-point efficiency, you gain in playmaking. And they finished with identical 111.6 defensive ratings.

The final spot — because Young is obviously a given — is a little less settled. When leading, Capela might be the better option. He did lead the team in field goal percentage in the fourth quarter. And his defense and rebounding would shorten the game given the lead was large enough to withstand the “hack-a” strategy where teams send him to the charity stripe.

In closer shootouts or when trailing, however, Bogdan Bogdanovic would be the better option.

The 6-foot-6 guard was second on the team in fourth-quarter scoring last season, his playmaking and ability to play passing lanes give him a two-way ability that is underrated.

This lineup only played 15 minutes together last regular season. Their inefficiency (28.6 percent from the floor, 18.8 percent from outside) would almost have to improve with them having a better rapport now.

When healthy, this Hawks team certainly has a lot of options. And Head Coach Nate McMillan will surely have his work cut out for him when making these kinds of situational decisions.