NFL betting breakdown: Week 5

Joe D’Amico, Aasiwins.com, Gamechangerz.ca, Pickdawgz.com, Sportsmemo.com

Jets (1-3) at Falcons (1-3), London

Time: 6:30 a.m., NFLN

Line/total: Falcons -3, 45½

Analysis: Jets rookie quarterback Zach Wilson finally looked like a first-round pick last week, throwing for 297 yards with two touchdowns and one interception in New York’s first win, over Tennessee. This might be a good spot for the former Brigham Young star to shine again against the NFL’s worst scoring defense (32 points per game allowed). Atlanta is missing several wideouts.

By the numbers: The Falcons are 1-5 ATS as favorites. … Atlanta is on a 5-2 under streak, and the Jets are on a 6-2 under run.

Pick: Falcons 17, Jets 16

Dolphins (1-3) at Buccaneers (3-1)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Buccaneers -10, 48

Analysis: Laying double digits is always tough in the NFL. I am not taking anything away from the defending Super Bowl champs, but Miami QB Jacoby Brissett will be much more comfortable making his third straight start against a depleted Tampa Bay secondary. The Dolphins’ defense, which has six takeaways, can create turnovers. This doesn’t bode well for Tom Brady, whose accuracy isn’t quite the same anymore, as he’s 20th in the league in completion percentage (64.7).

By the numbers: The Dolphins are on a 5-0 cover streak as road underdogs, 7-1 ATS after a loss and 22-10 ATS overall.

Pick: Buccaneers 24, Dolphins 17

Eagles (1-3) at Panthers (3-1)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Panthers -3, 46

Analysis: Carolina running back Christian McCaffrey is doubtful, but Chuba Hubbard is a capable backup and gets the benefit of facing the NFL’s worst run defense (150.2 ypga). The Eagles have committed a league-high 44 penalties, which helps explain their three-game losing streak straight up and ATS. Now they must contend with a top-10 defense. The line should be closer to a touchdown.

By the numbers: Philadelphia is 1-7 ATS on the road, 4-9 ATS vs. teams with a winning record and 2-5 ATS overall.

Pick: Panthers 31, Eagles 23.

Saints (2-2) at Football Team (2-2)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Saints -2½, 43½

Analysis: Oddly enough, the previously pass-heavy Saints rank 31st in passing and seventh in rushing. With this new offensive look, they will control the clock and the tempo. The Washington defense that was highly touted before the season ranks 30th in scoring defense, allowing 30.5 ppg. The Football Team also is last in takeaways, with one. New Orleans has a solid defense, yielding 17.3 ppg with eight takeaways.

By the numbers: The Saints are 7-2 ATS vs. the NFC, 16-7 ATS as road favorites and 8-3 ATS overall.

Pick: Saints 23, Football Team 17

Titans (2-2) at Jaguars (0-4)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Titans -4½, 48½

Analysis: Jacksonville is 0-4, but has lost each game by fewer points than the previous week (16, 13, 12, 3). Tennessee should win but shouldn’t be laying 4½ points. The Titans, coming off a loss to the Jets, seem to play to the level of their opponents. Jaguars rookie QB Trevor Lawrence is gaining confidence and has enough weapons to put points on the board. With both defenses showing weaknesses, this should be a shootout.

By the numbers: The Jaguars are 5-2 ATS vs. the AFC South. … Jacksonville is on a 7-3 over uptick vs. the AFC South. … The Titans are on a 10-3-1 over streak vs. the AFC.

Pick: Titans 27, Jaguars 24

Lions (0-4) at Vikings (1-3)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Vikings -10, 49½

Analysis: Few NFL teams are strong enough to lay double digits. The Vikings aren’t one of them, even against the Lions. Minnesota has had the upper hand in this division rivalry the last few years, but this isn’t the same team. I’m not crazy about backing the Lions, but they know the Vikings well. Until Minnesota shows me it’s good enough to lay single digits, I will fade it laying double digits.

By the numbers: The Vikings are on an 0-6 ATS slide as favorites, 1-5 ATS at home and 2-9 ATS overall.

Pick: Vikings 27, Lions 20

Broncos (3-1) at Steelers (1-3)

Time: 10 a.m., KVVU-5

Line/total: Broncos -2, 39½

Analysis: Denver’s three wins have come against teams that are a combined 2-10. If QB Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers are going to make a run for respectability, it must start here. Neither offense is lighting it up, so look for a low-scoring game.

By the numbers: The Steelers are 16-4-2 ATS as home underdogs. … Pittsburgh and Denver each has a 4-0 under record.

Pick: Steelers 20, Broncos 17

Packers (3-1) at Bengals (3-1)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Packers -2½, 50½

Analysis: Green Bay has rattled off three consecutive wins and covers since its season-opening blowout loss to New Orleans. Cincinnati also is 3-1, albeit with an overtime win over the 1-3 Vikings, a last-second victory over the winless Jaguars and a 24-10 win over the struggling Steelers. The Bengals’ loss was to a Chicago squad averaging 16 ppg. The Packers have averaged 30.6 ppg during their three-game win streak. Aaron Rodgers is in top form, and wideouts Davante Adams and Randall Cobb are playing well. Cincinnati’s secondary will be outclassed and overmatched.

By the numbers: The Bengals are 1-6 ATS after a straight-up win. … The Packers are on a 6-2 ATS run.

Pick: Packers 31, Bengals 24

Patriots (1-3) at Texans (1-3)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Patriots -8, 39

Analysis: Bill Belichick and his coaching staff excel at confounding rookie quarterbacks such as Houston’s Davis Mills. The Texans’ offense is in for a long day against New England’s top-10 ranked defense. Houston has scored a total of nine points the last two weeks in losses to Carolina (24-9) and Buffalo (40-0). Patriots QB Mac Jones is maturing at a rapid pace.

By the numbers: The Patriots are riding a 25-9 ATS streak against teams with a losing record. … New England is on a 5-1 under run on the road. … The Texans are on a 7-3 under streak as underdogs.

Pick: Patriots 24, Texans 9

Bears (2-2) at Raiders (3-1)

Time: 1:05 p.m., KLAS-8

Line/total: Raiders -5½, 45

Analysis: The Bears are 30th in the NFL in scoring, averaging 16 ppg. They won’t be able to keep pace with the high-flying Raiders, who average 26 ppg. To make matters worse for Chicago, it must face a Las Vegas team returning home after its first loss, against the Chargers. Raiders coach Jon Gruden will have his defense ready for Bears rookie QB Justin Fields. Raiders QB Derek Carr (1,399 yards passing, 64.1 percent completion rate, eight touchdown passes, three interceptions) and his arsenal of receivers should light up the scoreboard.

By the numbers: Chicago is on a 1-6 spread slide as a road underdog and 1-4 ATS vs. teams with a winning record.

Pick: Raiders 31, Bears 19

Browns (3-1) at Chargers (3-1)

Time: 1:05 p.m.

Line/total: Chargers -2, 47

Analysis: This was one of the toughest games on the card to handicap. Both teams are 3-1 SU and ATS. Both are scoring about the same amount of points and allowing about the same amount. There is one outstanding mismatch between Cleveland’s top-ranked ground game and Los Angeles’ 29th-ranked run defense. This means the Browns should be able to control the time of possession and keep the Chargers’ offense off the field.

By the numbers: Cleveland has covered six of the last seven meetings and is on a 4-0 ATS run on the road.

Pick: Browns 24, Chargers 23

Giants (1-3) at Cowboys (3-1)

Time: 1:25 p.m., KVVU-5

Line/total: Cowboys -7, 52

Analysis: The Cowboys are 4-0 ATS. But the Giants have covered the last two meetings with their NFC East rivals and are close to full strength offensively for the first time this season. Running back Saquon Barkley and wide receiver Kenny Golladay are back. Barkley will exploit Dallas’ 31st-ranked run defense and keep the game close.

By the numbers: New York is on a 5-0 cover streak vs. the NFC East, 20-6 ATS on the road and 10-4 ATS as an underdog.

Pick: Cowboys 27, Giants 24

49ers (2-2) at Cardinals (4-0)

Time: 1:25 p.m.

Line/total: Cardinals -5, 48

Analysis: The NFC West is going to be a dogfight. With San Francisco rookie QB Trey Lance starting in place of injured Jimmy Garoppolo and a few other 49ers banged up, we lean to the division-leading Cardinals. NFL MVP candidate QB Kyler Murray and Arizona have the NFL’s top scoring offense, averaging 35 ppg. San Francisco’s offense won’t be able to compensate for its leaky defense, which allowed 58 points the last two games in losses to the Packers and Seahawks.

By the numbers: The 49ers are on a 1-5-1 spread skid vs. the Cardinals. … Arizona is 4-0 ATS in October.

Pick: Cardinals 31, 49ers 21

Bills (3-1) at Chiefs (2-2)

Time: 5:20 p.m., KSNV-3

Line/total: Chiefs -2½, 56½

Analysis: With all due respect, Chiefs coach Andy Reid is no genius. He has a 17-15 postseason record and does not adapt well. The Kansas City defense ranks 31st in yards allowed and points allowed (31.3 ppg). QB Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense are still as good as any in football, but the Buffalo defense is arguably the best in the NFL right now. The Bills are No. 1 in yards allowed and No. 1 in scoring defense, allowing 11 ppg. Look for Buffalo running back Devin Singletary to shred the Chiefs defense and allow Bills QB Josh Allen to open up the passing game.

By the numbers: The Bills are 5-1 ATS on the road and 7-2-2 ATS as road underdogs.

Pick: Bills 30, Chiefs 27

Colts (1-3) at Ravens (3-1)

Time: 5:15 p.m., ESPN

Line/total: Ravens -7, 46½

Analysis: The Ravens are a few points from sharing the same 1-3 record as the Colts. Baltimore is riding a three-game win streak but has a ton of holes. Indianapolis notching its first win last week will give it a needed boost of confidence. It’s doubtful that Ravens QB Lamar Jackson can replicate last week’s 316 passing yards against the improving Colts pass defense.

By the numbers: The Colts are 6-1 ATS at Baltimore and 10-2 ATS overall vs. the Ravens.

Pick: Ravens 27, Colts 24