5 Things to Watch: No. 25 Aztecs vs. New Mexico

San Diego State is 11-11 in its Mountain West opener since 1999 when the conference was created.

SDSU is 7-1 the past eight years in MW openers — a 2019 loss to Utah State the lone setback — putting some distance on the 1-9 record compiled over the previous decade.

The Aztecs are substantial favorites to extend their string of success starting conference play.

No. 25-ranked SDSU (4-0) is a 19 1/2-point favorite over the Lobos (1-2) in a game that kicks off at 6 p.m. Saturday inside Carson’s Dignity Health Sports Park.

Here are five things to watch in the game:

1. Start fast, throw long(er)

SDSU had a 21-point first quarter in its Week 2 win at Arizona, but has only one touchdown and one field goal in the opening period of its other three games this season.

“We’ve got to start faster,” SDSU head coach Brady Hoke said. “We haven’t done that this year.”

The primary explanation is incompletions — and an interception against Towson — on critical downs that stalled first-quarter drives.

Backup quarterback Lucas Johnson completed 16 of 25 passes against Towson, but most of the completions came on short passes (fewer than five yards past the line of scrimmage) later in the game.

Johnson has completed 58 percent (26-for-45) of his throws, although starting quarterback Jordon Brookshire is expected back against New Mexico after missing two games with an ankle injury.

Brookshire completed fewer than 50 percent of his passes (16-for-33) before he was injured.

He will be asked to complete a higher percentage — and stretch the field in the process.

“I think the biggest improvement we have to make is now hitting in those intermediate and downfield shots,” SDSU offensive coordinator Jeff Hecklinski said.

Wide receiver Tyrell Shavers is the most likely target on the deep routes. He was open on medium- and long-range passes against Towson, but Johnson failed to find him.

Expect the Aztecs to take more downfield shots than they have this season, but they should be wary of a New Mexico defense that has six interceptions this season.

While the talk this week centered on the SDSU passing game, the Aztecs’ strong running game (254.8 ypg) demands most of the defense’s attention.

Starting running back Greg Bell (shoulder) is expected to be back in the lineup after an injury against Towson limited him to two carries.

2. New Mexico offense

The Lobos have totaled just 23 points in the three losses that preceded this game.

Overcoming the offensive struggles will be complicated this week against an SDSU defense that ranks second in the nation against the run (46.0 ypg) and 18th overall (289.8 ypg).

SDSU’s biggest concern is New Mexico quarterback Terry Wilson Jr., a 6-foot-3 graduate transfer from Kentucky who is distinguished as the only player in Wildcats history with more than 3,000 passing yards and 1,000 rushing yards.

“He has the ability to extend plays,” SDSU defensive lineman Keshawn Banks said. “He has a good arm and he runs away really well.

“I don’t know if he wants to run but he does when he has to. We are focused on keeping him in the pocket and getting pressure on him. Just taking away the ability to allow (New Mexico) to extend plays.”

Some of the offense’s struggles could be traced to missing wide receivers who were out of the lineup because of coronavirus tracing protocols. They’re back now.

New Mexico running back Bobby Cole (54 carries, 216 yards) will be back, but not until the second half. He must sit out the first half after being ejected for targeting in last week’s game against Air Force.

3. More touches for Bellinger?

The watch list for the John Mackey Award, which is given to the nation’s top tight end, includes four Mountain West players — Colorado State’s Trey McBride, Nevada’s Cole Turner, San Jose State’s Derrick Deese, Jr. and SDSU’s Daniel Bellinger.

McBride leads the group with 36 catches, averaging nine receptions a game. Turner has 20 catches and Deese has 14.

Then there’s Bellinger, who has five catches for a team-high 138 yards. A three-catch, 113-yard performance at Arizona accounts for most of it.

Bellinger has been used mostly as a blocker in the run game since then.

4. New Mexico natives

SDSU running back Jordan Byrd, along with Banks, is one of two New Mexico natives on SDSU’s roster.

Byrd seems to get an extra boost when it comes to anything to do with the Land of Opportunity.

The Aztecs’ fastest man carried 22 times for 118 yards and a pair of touchdowns two years ago against New Mexico State.

He reminded the Aggies of his presence in this year’s season opener with a 43-yard TD run.

At the 2019 New Mexico Bowl, Byrd earned co-offensive MVP after rushing 17 times for a career-high 139 yards and a touchdown.

What he has in store against New Mexico remains to be seen, but the meetup seems extra special to Byrd.

“It is, especially with my parents,” he said. “They love to support both teams. My mom is from New Mexico, so she loves supporting me and the Lobos as well. It’s going to be really fun.

“I love playing against New Mexico teams.”

5. A wrinkle from Rocky?

Former SDSU head coach Rocky Long is New Mexico’s defensive coordinator now.

Long doesn’t have the athletes he had at SDSU. Not yet, anyway. But you have to believe Long has something up his sleeve to throw at the Aztecs.

“We’ll have something for them,” New Mexico head coach Danny Gonzales promised in July during Mountain West media days in Las Vegas.

Gonzales considered one possibility at the time.

“If they’ve got a spread quarterback that nobody can tackle, you might see two D-linemen,” Gonzales said. “If you would have told me we’d play two D-linemen against San Diego State, I would have said you’re crazy.

“It all depends on how well they’re playing and what they’ve moved to by the time we play them.”

SDSU hasn’t done anything in the passing game to make opponents take their eyes off the run.

Does that mean the Lobos stack the box and force the Aztecs to beat them with the pass?

That seems too obvious.

Endless blitzes? Maybe.

It will be fun to find out.