Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars odds, picks and prediction

USA Today Sportsbookwire

The Jacksonville Jaguars (0-4) host the Tennessee Titans (2-2) Sunday of Week 5 at TIAA Bank Field. Kickoff is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Titans vs. Jaguars odds and lines, and make our best NFL picks, predictions and bets.

Tennessee was upset 27-24 in overtime by the New York Jets as a 5.5-point road favorite in Week 4. The Titans were without starting wide receivers Julio Jones and A.J. Brown but still led 430-355 in total yardage and 40:42-29:03 in time of possession.

Jacksonville squandered a 14-point first-half lead in its 24-21 Week 4 Thursday Night Football loss at the Cincinnati Bengals. However, the Jaguars covered the spread for the first time this season as 7.5-point underdogs.

Titans at Jaguars odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports' betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 10:26 a.m. ET.

Money line: Titans -220 (bet $220 to win $100) | Jaguars +175 (bet $100 to win $175)
Against the spread (ATS): Titans -4.5 (-110) | Jaguars +4.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 48.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Titans at Jaguars key injuries

Titans

WR Julio Jones (hamstring) out
OT Taylor Lewan (toe) questionable
C Ben Jones (neck) questionable
P Brett Kern (groin) out
DE Denico Autry (hip) questionable
LB Jayon Brown (knee) questionable

Jaguars

CB Tyson Campbell (toe) questionable
DL Roy Robertson-Harris (ankle) out
DE Lerentee McCray (hamstring) questionable

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Titans at Jaguars odds, lines, predictions and picks

Prediction

Jaguars 27, Titans 20

Money line

Slight "LEAN" to the JAGUARS (+175) for a tiny wager, if at all, because I'm going to take Jacksonville plus the points and see value in the underdog's money line.

This is more of a fade against the Titans, who rank 22nd in third-down conversion and 26th in red zone conversion rate, even though RB Derrick Henry is one of the best running backs in the NFL and Tennessee averages the seventh-most yards per rush.

Jacksonville has a sneaky good defense and could be in good shape against Tennessee's banged-up offensive line. The Jaguars are fifth in yards per rush allowed (3.5) and have the best average explosive rushing rate, according to Sharp Football Stats.

Over the past three seasons, Henry has trampled Jacksonville's defense in the second Titans-Jaguars meetings but underwhelmed in their first encounter. Given Tennessee's injuries along the offensive line and Jacksonville's relatively clean injury report, I like the Jaguars to minimize Henry's impact.

Against the spread

Definitely BET the JAGUARS +4.5 (-110) heavier than or instead of their money line.

There's been some significant " reverse line movement" (RLM) in the betting market. The Titans opened as 7.5-point favorites but have been steamed down to the current price despite getting nearly 60% of the action, according to Pregame.com at the time of writing. It's a red flag whenever sportsbooks make the more popular side cheaper.

Over/Under

PASS with a slight "lean" to the Under 48.5 (-105) because there's heavy RLM with the total as well. Titans-Jaguars opened with a 52-point total but has been brought down even though more than 60% of the handle is on the Over.

Also, the best part of both offenses is their ground games and the best part of both defenses is stopping the run. I expect each team to try establishing the run and we'll see if either finds success.

What's keeping me away from betting the Under is we are getting by far the worst of the number and all the value is gone.

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