SPORTS BETTING

NLDS Game 1: Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and prediction

Brian Rudd
Sportsbook Wire

The Atlanta Braves hit the road for the start of a best-of-five series against the Milwaukee Brewers. First pitch for Game 1 is set for 4:37 p.m. ET Friday at American Family Field. Let's analyze the lines around the Braves vs. Brewersodds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Charlie Morton is the projected starting pitcher for the Braves. He went 14-6 with a 3.34 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 across 185 2/3 IP spanning 33 starts in the regular season.

  • He got off to a slow start this season, as his ERA sat at 4.50 through his first 13 starts but the 37-year-old has been dominant since mid-June, posting a 2.71 ERA and 10.6 K/9 over his last 20 starts.
  • Surrendered just four homers across 88 1/3 IP on the road this season, while recording a 3.06 ERA.

RHP Corbin Burnes will take the mound for the Brewers. During the regular season, he went 11-5 with a 2.43 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 12.6 K/9 across 167 IP over a span of 28 starts.

  • Had what was probably his worst outing of the year against Atlanta in late July, when he allowed 5 ER in 4 IP. He was outstanding the rest of the way, though, as he put up a 2.36 ERA over his final 10 starts.
  • He hasn't been quite as unhittable at home, where he has posted a 2.85 ERA, though a .340 BABIP has inflated that number a bit.

Braves at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:10 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Braves +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Brewers -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Braves +1.5 (-170) | Brewers -1.5 (+135)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: +110 | U: -135)

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Prediction

Brewers 4, Braves 2

Money line (ML)

Burnes was perhaps the most dominant starter in the league this season, while Morton has been at the top of his game since mid-June. Prior to the team's loss last weekend when Burnes went just two innings, the Brewers had won the last 12 games he had started.

Though Milwaukee hasn't been quite as good at home (45-36) as on the road (50-31), having Burnes on the mound gives them the edge. Back the BREWERS (-160)

Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Morton boasts a 2.51 ERA over his last 10 road starts, with no more than 3 runs allowed in any of those outings. This contest is likely to be tight throughout, though there may be just enough value for a small play on BREWERS -1.5 (+135), given Burnes' ability to completely shut down the opposition on any given day.

Over/Under (O/U)

If you enjoy a good pitchers' duel, you'll want to tune in for this game. Both starters come into the playoffs riding high, and the offenses will have a tough time getting the bats going.

Milwaukee has scored just 4.32 runs per game at home on the season, compared to 4.79 on the road. Meanwhile, Atlanta hasn't been as good away from home, where the Braves average 4.77 runs per game (5.05 at home).

Most signs point to a low-scoring affair, and UNDER 7.5 (-135) is the side to take.

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