The Los Angeles Dodgers and the San Francisco Giants will battle it out in the first game of the NLDS on Friday night. It's time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Dodgers-Giants prediction and pick based on Dodgers Giants odds.
Baseball fans couldn't ask for a better playoff series than this one. Two bitter rivals who happen to be two of the best teams in the MLB playing in October is right out of a movie, and this series should live up to the hype. These two squads have been fighting each other for the NL West title all season, with the Giants scraping out a division title by one game in the end. San Francisco also took the season series from the Dodgers, winning 10 games to Los Angeles' 9. There's so much to look forward to here, so let's get into the pick.
Here's how the bookmakers have set the lines for Friday's game.
MLB Odds: Dodgers-Giants Odds
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Los Angeles Dodgers ML (-117)
San Francisco Giants ML (+107)
Over 7 runs (+102)
Under 7 runs (-122)
Why The Dodgers Could Win
Los Angeles has an obvious pitching advantage in this game. It's hard to be at a disadvantage when Walker Buehler is taking the mound for you. Buehler has been absolutely fantastic this season, posting a 2.47 ERA and a .99 WHIP on the season. The righty's postseason stats are comparable, with a slight drop in ERA and a negligible hike in WHIP. Buehler also has a great history against the Giants, pitching a total of 24 innings against San Francisco and only allowing seven runs over that span. This is a good matchup for Buehler even when taking into account just how good the Giants have been on offense.
While Buehler has the upper hand against almost any opposing pitcher, this matchup against Logan Webb is particularly good. Webb has pitched well, but there's several reasons to believe that the Dodgers can get the bats going against him. Webb has been pitching slightly worse than usual lately, seeing a jump in his ERA and WHIP over his last seven outings. The lefty also gives up a hard hit percentage of 38.8%, a number that is right around average. Los Angeles has six players in the starting lineup that own an above-average hard-hit percentage, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see the Dodgers put together some solid offense in this one.
Why The Giants Could Win
Despite Buehler's elite numbers against San Francisco, the Giants have shown that they can hit him. The last time Buehler matched up with San Francisco, he was shelled for six earned runs over just three innings in the Bay Area. The fact that this game is a home game for the Giants holds a lot of weight, as Buehler has been a significantly worse pitcher on the road. His ERA skyrockets from 2.05 in Dodger Stadium to 3.08 anywhere else. San Francisco has a decent chance of getting to Buehler in this one.
It's true that Webb hasn't been his sharpest lately, but he still matches up well against Los Angeles. The lefty has made three starts against the Dodgers this season, pitching a combined 16 innings and only allowing four runs. Los Angeles is also a worse offensive team when they play on the road, earning a lower batting average, OBP, and OPS. To make matters even better, Webb has been elite at home. His ERA plummets from 4.08 on the road to 1.96 at home. Webb is primed for a good outing in this one.
Final Dodgers-Giants Prediction & Pick
Dodgers-Giants games will always be a tough pick, but San Francisco is the somewhat obvious choice. The Giants are well-rested and starting a pitcher who is dominant at home. Barring an absolute gem from Buehler, San Francisco should take this contest.
FINAL PICK: San Francisco Giants ML (+107)
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