The Atlantic Division's been won by either the Tampa Bay Lightning or Boston Bruins three times in a row.
Will the streak extend to four, or is there value backing a new winner? Let's find out.
| Team | Odds to win |
|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Lightning | +180 |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | +220 |
| Boston Bruins | +300 |
| Florida Panthers | +350 |
| Montreal Canadiens | +4000 |
| Detroit Red Wings | +15000 |
| Ottawa Senators | +15000 |
| Buffalo Sabres | +20000 |
The favorites
The Lightning (+180) find themselves justifiably favored in the league's most top-heavy division despite losing an entire line (Blake Coleman, Yanni Gourde, and Barclay Goodrow) from their Stanley Cup-winning team. Tampa Bay finished fifth in wins last season without the team's best player, Nikita Kucherov. A healthy Kucherov drastically improves the Lightning's ceiling, and astute additions like Corey Perry and P.E. Bellemare will help make up for some of the lost depth.
I know they're a bit of a laughing stock following another playoff disappointment, but the Maple Leafs (+220) will be in the mix for the division title. Their roster is littered with elite forwards, while Ondrej Kase (if healthy), Michael Bunting, and Nick Ritchie should provide quality secondary scoring.
Defensively, the Leafs are a lot better than they get credit for. In the shortened 2021 season, they ranked seventh in five-on-five goals against per 60 minutes and eighth in expected goals against per 60 while playing in a high-flying division with some of the game's brightest offensive stars. Jack Campbell might not be as good as he looked a year ago, but he should be able to provide competent goaltending in tandem with Petr Mrazek.
Boston (+300) sure seems like a good value. The losses of David Krejci and Tuukka Rask will hurt, no doubt, but the team still has the pieces to win a ton of hockey games. The Bruins possess hockey's best two-way line and a high-end second line with Taylor Hall in the mix. Combine that with extremely stout team defense and a solid 1-2 punch in Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman, and Boston figures to be a threat once again.
I like the direction Florida (+350) is heading, but the hype is a little out of control. Unlike the other teams expected to contend for the Atlantic Division crown, the Panthers have a glaring weakness: goaltending. Sergei Bobrovsky ranks 49th among 54 eligible netminders in GSAx since joining Florida. He's being paid to steal games, but in reality, he's been losing them for the Panthers.
Yes, Florida has a potential star in the making with Spencer Knight. But he's not going to play 60 games, regardless of how good he looks. We're probably looking at something of a 50/50 split as a best-case scenario, which leaves plenty of time for Bobrovsky to drop points the Panthers otherwise deserve. They're a good bet to make the dance, but winning the division seems like a stretch.
The rest
It feels strange to see such long odds for Montreal (+4000), considering the Habs just made it to the Stanley Cup Final. I'm in agreement, though. I don't see this team even sniffing a division title. Montreal's very shallow at center, Jeff Petry is the only rearguard I'd consider a top-three defenseman, and Carey Price won't be available to start the season.
The Canadiens try to drag their opponents through the mud rather than get out of it themselves. That helped them steal some playoff games, but I don't see them having much success doing so on a nightly basis against so many high-powered teams. Forget a division title - the Habs may be in tough to make it back to the playoffs.
Detroit (+15000), Ottawa (+15000), and Buffalo (+20000) are all in the midst of long, ugly rebuilds and are unlikely to challenge for anything other than last place.
Best bet: Bruins (+300)
There's a lot to like about this Bruins team. Boston's top six is remarkably strong at both ends of the ice. Defensively, the Bruins are as good as it gets; only the Colorado Avalanche allowed fewer expected goals last season. In goal, they're in good shape with Ullmark, Swayman, and, potentially down the road, Rask. There's value here with an implied 25% chance of them winning the division.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.