Braves NLDS: 3 Keys to Beating the Milwaukee Brewers

We give you three things that must happen if the Atlanta Braves are going to get past the Milwaukee Brewers in the NLDS. 

The Atlanta Braves and Milwaukee Brewers have a ton of similarities as Sam points out here, which make this a highly entertaining series.

But where they differ is where the Braves really need to take advantage if they’re going to win this series.

1. Hit those homers

This one is pretty obvious, but to me, it’s the biggest key in the series. The Braves offense relies heavily on hitting the long ball to score, while the Brewers’ top pitchers do a great job of limiting home runs.

Corbin Burnes allowed the fewest home runs in all of baseball this season — by a lot — giving up just 7. Brandon Woodruff ranked 10th giving up 18.

Freddy Peralta allowed 14 in 144.1 innings, Eric Lauer gave up 16 in 118.2 innings, Brad Boxberger 8 in 64.2 innings, and Josh Hader just 3 in 58.2 innings.

For comparison, Charlie Morton and Max Fried ranked 3rd and 4th giving up 15 and 16 respectively. While Ian Anderson gave up 16 in 128.1 innings, Huascar Ynoa 14 in 91 innings, Will Smith 11 in 68 innings, Luke Jackson 6 in 63.2 innings, and Tyler Matzek just 3 in 63 innings.

And it’s not just hitting home runs, it’s hitting home runs with runners on base. It’s going to be hard for the Braves to string together hits against this pitching staff, when they do get a hold of one, it needs to be with some traffic on the bases.

2. Take advantage of those middle innings

I really think this entire series will come down to what happens in innings 6-8. For the Braves pen, you can say 6-9. Hader is about as lockdown as it gets in the 9th so you better get to them before then. The Brewers are 76-1 when they lead after the 8th.

The starting pitching in this series will be so good that it will really come down to how quickly each offense can get the starter out of the game and get into those middle relievers.

Losing Devin Williams is a huge loss for the Brewers and makes innings 6-8 very vulnerable for them.

We know the bullpen is very vulnerable for the Braves. If we go to the bullpen in the 7th with a one or two-run lead, you can be pretty certain that won’t be enough.

Whichever team does the most damage in those middle innings will most likely win this series.

3. Avoid going to the bullpen at all cost

You can show me the numbers all you want that point to the Braves bullpen not being as bad as it seems, and how the Braves bullpen has a better ERA in the second half than the Brewers’, I don’t care — stay away from the bullpen.

There is no one in that bullpen I trust late in a tight game. Maybe Jackson and Matzek, but even they struggle with command at times — 5.29 BB/9 for Matzek and 4.10 for Jackson.

If the Braves are going to win this series, they need at least 7 strong innings from Morton and Fried when they pitch.

And the Braves need to make sure when they go to the bullpen, there is enough of a cushion — no one or two-run leads.

If those three things happen — really, if just one of them happens — I feel really good about the Braves’ chances of advancing to the NLCS.