When the first pitch of the American League Division Series is thrown Thursday afternoon at Minute Maid Park in Houston, the Chicago White Sox’s quest for their first World Series title since 2005 kicks off.
After finishing atop the the AL Central, the Sox get the Houston Astros, whom they went 2-5 against in the regular season.
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The White Sox lost 5 of 7 to the Astros in the regular season. What can they learn from those games before the ALDS begins?
Ahead of Game 1, here are three things to watch for.
1. Can the White Sox reverse road struggles and thwart Houston’s home field advantage?
The Sox do not want to return to Chicago for Sunday’s Game 3 facing elimination and needing to win three straight against the Astros to advance. So, it’s imperative they avoid letting Houston take momentum and get off to a good start in the ALDS.
The Sox dominated at Guaranteed Rate Field this year — their 53 home wins were the most in the AL and third most in baseball behind the Los Angeles Dodgers (58) and San Francisco Giants (54). The Sox haven’t played a playoff game in front of their home crowd since Game 3 of the 2008 ALDS versus the Tampa Bay Rays, an elimination game the Sox won 5-3 before being knocked out the next day.
Their home success this year is a stark contrast to their performance on the road. The Sox enter the postseason with a 40-41 road record — the only club among the 10 playoff teams with a losing road mark. Meanwhile, the Astros’ 51 victories at Minute Maid Park are second-most in the AL behind the Sox and Rays. Beyond home-road record splits, the Sox must also elevate their play against good teams. They finished 27-29 versus teams with a winning record while the Astros went 45-32.
The Sox clearly possess the talent, both offensively and on the pitching staff, to make a deep postseason run. Finding success on the road in Game 1 will go a long way in making that happen.
2. Who among the Sox’s non-star players will step up offensively?
The Sox are not short on thump in the lineup. Their projected starting lineup features five hitters with a 115 OPS+ or higher. Overall, the Sox have six players (minimum 150 plate appearances) with at least a 115 OPS+, tied with three other teams for second-most in the majors. The only teams with more are the Dodgers and Astros, each with seven.
There are plenty of capable hitters able to carry the Sox offense — starting with Tim Anderson on down through José Abreu, Yasmani Grandal, Luis Robert and Yoán Moncada, who can all slug. The Sox boast star talent, but at some point they will need a role player to step up. The most obvious spots are at second base and right field where they have received the most inconsistent production, rating 25th and 26th, respectively, in wins above average at those two positions.
César Hernández has underwhelmed since being acquired from Cleveland at the trade deadline. Leury García is poised to step up in October after closing out with a .337/.371/.490 slash line in 26 games during the final month of the season. Perhaps García becomes the regular at second in the postseason while Andrew Vaughn and Adam Engel split time in right field. If Hernández continues to start, the Sox need more from the switch hitter.
3. In a battle between the two oldest managers in baseball, how aggressive will Tony La Russa be with his in-game moves?
Although better than a one game win-or-go-home showdown as in the wild-card games, a five-game series doesn’t leave much room for miscues. One team could be on the brink of elimination by the time the series comes to Chicago on Sunday night.
La Russa, who turned 77 on Monday, is managing in his 15th career postseason and first since winning the World Series in 2011 with the St. Louis Cardinals. His regular-season tendencies suggest he sticks with his lineup regulars rather turning to his bench in-game, and he isn’t afraid to engage in small ball.
Only three managers used pinch hitters less frequently than La Russa when adjusting for the two leagues. Comparatively, Dusty Baker’s Astros rank 16th in that category. La Russa also sits in the bottom third of pinch runners used per game, slightly less frequently than his Houston counterpart (15th overall).
When evaluating La Russa’s in-game bench usage, it’s not ideal comparing his choices this year to when he last managed, which came in the National League where inherently there are more in-game moves without a designated hitter. Although how the game is played has changed over the years, La Russa has called on pinch hitters and pinch runners less than all but one of his 19 seasons managing the Sox and Oakland Athletics (1979-1995).
Of course, some of these decisions relate to personnel. The Sox lineup clearly is stacked with hitters a manager would want in the game, often regardless of the situation or pitching matchup. And without needing to worry about hitting for a pitcher, an AL team can build its bench a little differently. But La Russa’s bench strategy patterns are worth keeping in mind heading into Game 1 of the ALDS.
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