One of the few constants in this Orioles rebuild has been the sheer volume of up-and-coming outfielders who need chances to break in at the major league level.
When executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias took over in 2019, Cedric Mullins, Austin Hays, Anthony Santander and DJ Stewart all had major league experience, and top prospects like Yusniel Diaz and Ryan McKenna didn’t seem far behind.
It’s taken a while for that first group to sort itself out, but now that it has, the Orioles still have a surplus of outfielders who need playing time.
The team’s contingent of prospects going to the Arizona Fall League — which includes Diaz and co-Brooks Robinson Minor League Player of the Year winner Kyle Stowers in the outfield — shows the old is meshing with the new in terms of how quickly the team’s outfield prospects are pushing to the majors.
Entering the 2021 season, it was up to the old guard to break through. Stewart was a first-round draft pick in 2015, and Mullins, Hays and Santander spent time on the team’s top-10 prospect lists in 2018 and 2019.
Mullins debuted late in 2018 as the center field heir to Adam Jones, then flamed out early in 2019 and didn’t return until the following year. Then he became an All-Star this season. Hays was up late in 2017, had a late cameo in 2019 and only truly showed his best self late in the past two seasons after being limited by injuries. Santander was the Most Valuable Oriole in 2020 but wasn’t healthy enough to make an impact this year. Stewart, too, struggled to solidify a consistent role in 2021 and didn’t produce well when he had one.
Injuries meant Hays and Santander weren’t often at their best to flank Mullins this year, but going forward, that group seems solidified as the club’s best outfield alignment. McKenna seems like a useful bench bat for his speed and defense, while Stewart seems to be the odd-man-out.
No one in that group should be terribly comfortable, however, considering the tumultuous experiences they’ve had getting to the big leagues and sticking there. But the way the Orioles’ organizational depth chart is being built suggests they’ll be looking over their shoulders before long.
Diaz represents a unique case when it comes to challengers breaking into the Orioles’ outfield, considering he was once their best prospect after the Manny Machado trade in July 2018 and was a top-50 prospect in all of baseball. But because of injuries and inconsistent performance, his value has cratered. With his 25th birthday Thursday, he’s not too old to be considered a potential piece for the Orioles — but his .498 OPS in 253 plate appearances in the high minors suggest he won’t be an impact player.
He’ll be in the fall league to make up for some lost time from injuries this year, but also to show he can still be the player who was the centerpiece of a trade for a franchise cornerstone like Machado.
Stowers, conversely, had one of the best seasons of any Orioles farmhand in 2021. He started at High-A Aberdeen and ended at Triple-A Norfolk, compiling an .898 OPS and 27 home runs along the way. While he was healthy all season, the Orioles want him to reduce some of his swing-and-miss tendencies and consistently tap into his elite power.
The assignment to the fall league shows how serious the Orioles are about getting Stowers to Camden Yards quickly, and he’s not alone. He spent most of the year playing alongside fellow 2019 outfield draft picks like Zach Watson and Johnny Rizer and ended the year in Norfolk, where Zach Jarrett and Robert Neustrom were quietly producing.
The Orioles also expect their top pick from this year’s draft, Colton Cowser, to be able to progress quickly through the minors. He’ll be progressing through the system with outfielders from the 2020 draft class in No. 2 overall pick Heston Kjerstad and second-round selection Hudson Haskin, plus fellow 2021 outfielders Reed Trimble, John Rhodes and Donta’ Williams.
Before long, there will be another cadre of outfielders near the top of the Orioles’ prospect lists and in the high minors, waiting for a chance in the majors.
The Orioles’ decisions on their major league outfield this winter will be informative as to how quickly that could come about. Santander, due the second of his scheduled four salary arbitration raises, could be a trade candidate. Hays showed playing every day suited him well, making Stewart essentially a left-handed bench bat, albeit one with a minor league option remaining. Stewart’s leash in 2022 might coincidentally be the same length of time Stowers needs back in Norfolk.
It’s complicated, but having a surplus of outfielders beats the alternative. In the infield, the Orioles have had no real top prospects to speak of outside of first basemen Trey Mancini and Ryan Mountcastle and have had to supplement their depth with free agents and waiver claims over the past few seasons.
Boasting more outfielders than they know what to do with hasn’t been the worst thing the Orioles have dealt with over the past few years. They certainly won’t mind seeing that continue as long as the pipeline stays intact.
