Believe it or not, we’re almost a fifth of the way through the 2021-22 Premier League season.
That makes it the perfect time to step back and assess the state of the league futures market over at PointsBet Sportsbook.
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While our pre-season predictions are locked in, it’s never too late to add some plays to the portfolio.
So with that in mind, here are two of my favorite futures for the top half of the EPL table as we sit in the October international break. All odds come courtesy of PointsBet and are reflective at time of writing.
Best Bet #1 - Liverpool Top 2 Position (+125)
Come May, I expect we’ll see three teams battling for two positions. Because of that belief, I’m inclined to take plus-money where I can find it.
It just so happens that plus-money lies with a team I genuinely believe is capable of winning the league.
Liverpool have been rock solid through their first seven fixtures of the season and remain the only side yet to have posted an outright loss.
Plus, in a league that has historically rewarded sides with outstanding offensive production - all of the last five champions have surpassed 80 goals - Liverpool’s offensive metrics are hard to ignore.
Not only have they generated at least 2.0 xGF in six of their first seven matches, but they’re not scoring fluke goals. Through seven matches, the Reds have managed 17 goals on 17.9 expected goals for, per fbref.com.
While Manchester City has underperformed according to their underlying metrics, league-leaders Chelsea have actually overperformed.
The Blues have scored 15 goals on 11.6 xGF and conceded three goals on nearly nine xGA, again per fbref.com. Furthermore, their goal differential (12) vs. their xGD (3.0) is the highest discrepancy of any EPL team.
That’s why I’m confident over the course of a 38-game season, Chelsea’s performances will catch up to them and a third or fourth place finish isn’t out of the question.
Finally, the last edge I see in this play relates to home-field advantage.
Through the first 70 matches, home teams have won at least a point in 69 percent of said fixtures, telling me performance at home will be a crucial decider in the race for the Champions League spots.
Given that Liverpool is second in the home xGD table as compared to United (4th) and Chelsea (7th), I believe they’ll secure enough home points to finish ahead of both those sides.
Best Bet #2 - Wolves to Finish in the Top Half (+185)
I was high on Wolves before the season even began - pegging them for a top-six and top-half finish.
Now, there’s data to support our claims and the value is still there on the board.
While a place in the European spots may be out of the cards, there’s evidence Wolves have been a reliable, unlucky side.
In reality, Wolves have won nine points from seven matches. However, my metrics say they should be sitting on 13 points. If that were the case, Wolves would be sitting in seventh place.
Further, of the teams currently occupying the bottom 10 positions in the EPL table, Wolves are the only side with a positive expected goal differential.
On the contrary, there are currently three top-half sides - Brighton, Tottenham and Aston Villa - with negative expected goal differentials.
Additionally, the other factor I’m considering is where Wolves’ bad luck has appeared.
In most cases, it’s coming at home. Despite currently maintaining a home goal differential of -3, their home xGD is -0.5, per fbref.com. That change is the biggest home discrepancy amongst teams in the bottom half.
Plus, only once in four matches have Wolves lost the expected goal battle outright at Molineux, but they currently sit on a home record of 1-0-3.
Should Bruno Lage’s squad continue to get results away from their home ground and improve ever so slightly at Molineux, I believe we could see enough regression from teams above them that would lead to a more favorable position at the end of the season.
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