CLEVELAND, Ohio -- I didn’t expect the Browns to be in this position. Their 3-1 record makes sense. However, Kevin Stefanski’s offense isn’t firing properly.
Cleveland has the second-best rush DVOA at 14.9 percent. Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are the league’s most formidable one-two punch. Chubb ranks second in rushing yards with 362 yards, trailing Derrick Henry by 148. That sounds steep but keep in mind Henry has 44 more carries.
Only four running backs average more yards per carry than Hunt. His 5.4 yards per rush sits just .2 yards more than Chubb’s 5.2 mark. It’s remarkable both backs earn five yards per touch. Chubb and Hunt are two of the best at yards after contact as well.
The Browns’ running game picked up where it left off last year. The same cannot be said about Baker Mayfield and the passing offense. Cleveland ranks 21st in passing DVOA. Mayfield’s expected points added per play (EPA) trails 20 quarterbacks, including Jalen Hurts (20th), Kirk Cousins (18th) and Sam Darnold (12th).
Mayfield has two passing touchdowns and two interceptions through four games. His completion percentage of 65.5 ranks 18th. QBR, a stat that usually favors Mayfield, isn’t siding with him either. His 36.9 QBR -- good for 26th -- puts him seven spots from the bottom.
His inconsistent play shows up in the red zone and it’s hurting the Browns. Last year Cleveland was a top-five touchdown scoring offense from within 20 yards. Thus far, the Browns are converting just 62 percent of the time, tied for 17th.
Most worrisome, Mayfield’s expected completion percentage on Sunday of 66.5 was 18 points lower than his actual completion percentage.
Those stats are facts. Mayfield isn’t performing well. The Browns are winning by running the ball, playing great defense and executing on special teams. They have time to figure this out. Jarvis Landry is likely returning in a few weeks. But so much of this falls on Mayfield, despite Kevin Stefanski saying he needs to call better plays. Also, neither head coach or quarterback is using Mayfield’s left shoulder soreness as an excuse, because it shouldn’t be.
A challenging test looms on Sunday when the Browns travel to Los Angeles. Quarterback Justin Herbert looked calm beyond his years versus the Raiders on Monday Night Football. The second-year quarterback completed 66 percent of his passes and threw for three touchdowns in the Chargers’ 28-14 victory.
With wins over the Chiefs, Raiders and Washington, Los Angeles seems ready to challenge anyone in the AFC. Herbert besting Mayfield would be another step back for the former No. 1 pick. The Chargers’ defense is one of the league’s best. It’ll be a battle in Los Angeles with AFC playoff implications on the line.
Let’s unpack how the Browns match up against Los Angeles.
What to expect from the Chargers
First-year head coach Brandon Staley should be the early favorite for coach of the year. After spending one season as the Rams’ defensive coordinator, Staley has the Chargers purring. The Rams were the No. 1 defense last season, leaning on stars Jalen Ramsey and Aaron Donald.
With the Chargers, he implements a similar pressure and coverage combo with end Joey Bosa and safety Derwin James. On Monday night, James ended a Raiders rally by intercepting Derek Carr late in the fourth quarter. The pass was intended for tight end Darren Waller but James cut underneath the corner route and ended it.
This defense has held all four of their opponents to their respective season-low point total. It’s been the pass defense and rush that troubles opposing offenses. Carr faced 22 pressures, including a Bosa strip-sack in the first half.
In coverage, Los Angeles played sticky and challenged Raiders receivers. Five defensive backs earned a 71 grade or higher, according to Pro Football Focus. With pressure coming from everywhere and a secondary playing well, Stefanski likely will ask Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb to produce on heavy workloads once again.
Coming into Monday, the Chargers were the 31st-ranked rushing defense according to DVOA. That number will improve after holding they held the Raiders to just 2.7 yards per carry on 18 tries. Some of the limited-run production was a product of Las Vegas trailing by three scores at halftime.
The Browns have played close games all year. Meaning they should have a run game to rely on.
Offensively, Los Angeles features tall, athletic targets for Herbert’s jump balls. Tight end Jared Cook and receiver Mike Williams are both 6-foot-5. Pro Bowler Keenan Allen uses his 6-foot-2 frame to win contested catches. He’s also one of the best route runners in the league.
Running back Austin Eckler doesn’t stand tall but his low running style helps him hide behind the Chargers’ offensive line. A decisive cut later and he’s a threat to score from anywhere. Against the Raiders, he had rushing and receiving touchdowns while totaling 117 yards on 15 carries.
What we learned
For two weeks straight the Browns’ pass rush has mauled opposing offensive lines. Myles Garrett, Jadeveon Clowney, Malik McDowell and Malik Jackson are nearly matchup proof. But that foursome will be tested against a sound Chargers front that features veteran center Corey Linsley and first-round left tackle Rashawn Slater.
The Raiders only pressured Herbert on 16 dropbacks. Regardless, he excels against pressure, which doesn’t bode well for Cleveland. Stefanski may have to find another way to win. That could mean his passing attack getting right.
Which will come down to Mayfield bouncing back.
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