There are many ridiculous defenses for President Joe Biden’s $3.5 trillion spending plan, including the laughable claim that it actually costs nothing. One of the more grounded defenses is that the plan is broadly popular, but that doesn’t appear to be the case.
An I&I/TIPP poll has independent voters opposing the plan by a margin of 51%-45%. Independents who strongly oppose the plan outnumber those who strongly support it 32%-20%. More importantly, the poll found that only 49% of independents claim to be following news stories about the bill very or somewhat closely.
This meshes with some previous polling results. A poll from the policy group No Labels found that 52% of independents favored West Virginia Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin’s “strategic pause” on the bill. This comes amid the growing concerns about inflation and the effects that a $3.5 trillion social spending bill would have on it.
Of course, polls can be fickle, especially when it comes to something as convoluted as a massive spending plan. The best place to look would be at Democratic politicians in swing states or districts that have their ears much closer to the ground. And it isn’t just Manchin who opposes $3.5 trillion in spending.
Arizona Sen. Krysten Sinema, who is outpolling her Arizona Democratic colleague Sen. Mark Kelly, also opposes the $3.5 trillion top-line number. Centrist House Democrats don’t want to pursue any reconciliation bill that can’t get the support of 50 senators. That includes Rep. Kurt Schrader, who doesn’t want to back any plan over $1 trillion. According to Oregon’s new congressional map, Schrader’s district now has a rating of D+6, making it the most competitive in the state.
And then there is former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe. Running for his old job in a state that has drifted toward the Democratic Party over the past few years, McAuliffe finds himself in a competitive race against GOP nominee Glenn Youngkin. During a debate, McAuliffe said that $3.5 trillion was “too high.”
Between the polls and the reluctance or opposition of Democrats who are facing competitive elections, it seems that the reconciliation bill is full of pitfalls. When you dig deeper than the public’s surface-level attitude about feel-good spending, support for the bill is far more precarious.
