Carson Wentz Stat Tracker: Week 4

Thanks to the nflFastR project and NFL NextGen Stats for the timely sources of data.

For those of you new to this, I will publish key QB stats each week judging how well the Colts passing game performed. I will probably modify the charts throughout the season. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)

NOTE: references to weekly ranks are of the 30 team QBs through Sunday night

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HOW WELL?

This was an interesting game to judge Wentz by.

He was bad in the first half, but very good in the 2nd. He threw 2 TDs and no picks which almost guarantees good epa efficiency, but he had more bad plays than good.

Basically, the whole (0.34 epa/play) was greater than the sum of the parts (42.9% success rate).

He had big boy epa efficiency which is the most important stat overall, but poor supporting metrics: he was weak on passing first downs and yardage efficiency was below average.

Don’t get me wrong, this is a huuuuge improvement from last week but I wonder how repeatable it is if you can’t manage average yardage gains and conversions.

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HOW FAR?

Yards per attempt was just OK and pulled up by a strong finish. If his last 10 passes are who he really is then sign me up.

Through 4 weeks, he is 24th in ypa off of primarily short passes.

Attempt depth (8.8 yds) and completions air yards (6.6 yds) were both above average for the first time this year. 14.3% of Wentz’s attempts were for longer than 20 yards, which is the 8th highest %.

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TO WHO?

Pittman is the apparent #1 receiver.

It is refreshing to see so many receivers above the green lines, meaning they are adding greater than average value. And many of them this week were to the right of the vertical line which means longer than average depth. Pray that we see a steady march to the upper right quadrant.

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HOW ACCURATE?

75% completion rate on longer than average passes is remarkable and as such, Wentz is rewarded with the 2nd highest accuracy of the week (+13.5% cpoe).

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HOW FAST?

Ah, the dreaded time to throw. Wentz averaged over 3 seconds from snap to throw this week. Of course, that came on his longest passes as a Colt, which require more play development time.

However, a 5th ranked TTT on a 15th ranked depth still seems too slow. There were 12 other QBs this week that had quicker throws on longer passes. From my point of view, Wentz’s sense of urgency just seems a tick too slow.

He can still be successful despite that, but it is a shortcoming.

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DASHBOARD

This week saw a successful run first concept (21st early down pass %, 8th rush success rate). Wentz’s average completion splits into 6.6 air yard depth (16th ay/c) and a disappointing 2.9 yac (30th), which is -1.9 yards below expected (28th yacoe). He countered that with an outstanding accuracy (2nd cpoe) to keep his yard per attempt around average (17th ypa).

He had the 8th highest attempt rate for passes >= 20 yards and he had the 10th best epa efficiency on long passes (0.75 20+e).

He had the 8th highest sack rate, which certainly is partially on the O-Line, but a 5th longest TTT may have played a part in that pressure. Regardless, the negative yardage pulled his overall yardage efficiency down to 19th (ny/d).

He had no turnovers and the 9th best TD rate, which lifted his overall epa efficiency to 9th (epa/d).

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Here is his year-to-date dashboard (of 32 QBs) showing he now ranks 22nd by epa efficiency.

GLOSSARY

opd: The epa/d given up by opponent defenses in all games other than the QB/team being measured

ed%: The % of plays on early downs(2) that are QB dropbacks.

wrsr: The % of designed carries that earn more epa than the median league value in similar game situations (down, distance, field position etc.), adjusted for 4th qtr game script and weighted by result (TD, first down, other)

ttd: The average time from snap to the point when a QB throws, scrambles or is sacked.

pr%: The % of dropbacks where the QB was pressured (per Pro Football Focus)

adot: The average air yards thrown per attempt.

20+: The % of attempts >+ 20 air yards

ay/c: The distance between the line of scrimmage to the point of reception.

cpoe: Completion % over an expected amount based on game situation (air yards, down, distance, field position etc.)

yac: The distance between point of reception and the spot of the football at the end of the play.

yacoe: The yac over the league average yac for a given game situation (yards thrown, down, distance, field position etc.)

ypa: Yards per Attempt

aa%: The % of dropbacks that result in a throw-away, sack or scramble.

ta%: Throw Aways as a percentage of dropbacks

scr%: Scrambles as a percentage of dropbacks

sk%: Sacks as a percentage of dropbacks

to%: Interceptions and QB lost fumbles as a percentage of dropbacks

ny/d: Net Yards per dropback. (Passing Yards - Sack Yards + Scramble Yards) / (Att + Sacks + Scrambles)

1st%: Passing first downs as a percentage of dropbacks

td%: Touchdown as a percentage of dropbacks

rze: Expected Points Added per dropback in the red zone

orze: Expected Points Added per dropback outside of the red zone

20+e: Expected Points Added per dropback on passes >=20 air yards

psr: The % of dropbacks that have epa> 0

epa/d: Expected Points Added per dropback.