The NHL is returning to an 82-game regular season for 2021-22, which can only mean one thing: More games equals more ice time for the league's biggest stars, which means more points. It's simple math.
Regardless of their final point totals, these five players will certainly feature on every highlight reel as the top contenders in the race for the Art Ross Trophy.
5. Artemi Panarin, New York Rangers
2020-21 stats: 42 games played, 17 goals, 41 assists, 18 power-play points
Panarin had a monster year in 2020-21. With 58 points in 42 contests, he was on pace to score 113 points in 82 games. Despite missing 14 games, he finished tied for 13th in league scoring and trailed only Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid in points per game for the second straight season.
What makes Panarin's case even more compelling is that he isn't backed by a plethora of star power. McDavid has Draisaitl, Nathan MacKinnon has Mikko Rantanen and Gabriel Landeskog, and Nikita Kucherov has Brayden Point and Steven Stamkos. Panarin may play with a former 40-goal scorer in Mika Zibanejad and the reigning Norris Trophy winner in Adam Fox, but there's a reason he was a Hart Trophy finalist in 2019-20 - the same season he tied David Pastrnak for third in scoring.
Panarin, 29, has led the Rangers in points in two consecutive campaigns and holds the reins of a young squad facing heightened expectations. Expect the Breadman to thrive under new head coach Gerard Gallant, who helped the misfit Golden Knights reach unexpected heights.
4. Nathan MacKinnon, Colorado Avalanche
2020-21 stats: 48 games played, 20 goals, 45 assists, 25 power-play points
An angry MacKinnon is a scary MacKinnon. After leading the Avalanche with 15 points in 10 playoff games, the 26-year-old ended the year royally ticked off thanks to a third straight second-round exit. In his own words, MacKinnon is entering his ninth NHL campaign and hasn't "won shit."
The intense star is clearly motivated and looks primed to unleash his wrath on the Central Division. He has 212 points in 216 career games against his current Central opponents.
MacKinnon ranked fourth with 1.35 points per game last season and averaged the same production in 2019-20. His 65 points in 48 contests translated to a 111-point pace across 82 games, and he remained the most crucial component of the Avalanche's power play. After finishing third in power-play points in 2020-21, he should continue to feast on a division that featured three of the league's 10 worst penalty-killing units last season in the Blues, Blackhawks, and Predators.
A Hart Trophy finalist in three of the last four seasons, MacKinnon seems poised to guide the defending Presidents' Trophy winners to a big year.
3. Nikita Kucherov, Tampa Bay Lightning
2020-21 stats: 23 games played, 8 goals, 24 assists, 19 power-play points
*Playoff stats only
After the Russian star led all players in postseason scoring en route to the Lightning's second straight Stanley Cup win, 2021-22 will mark the official return of regular-season Kucherov.
It's been a while since the 28-year-old winger played a non-playoff contest, so here's a refresher on how that usually goes. Kucherov notched 85 points in 68 games in 2019-20, leading the Bolts and ranking seventh in the NHL. He put up an absurd 128 points in 82 games the year prior, a showing that won him the 2019 Art Ross and Hart trophies. All told, he's averaged more than a point per game since the 2016-17 campaign.
Extrapolating somewhat, his 32 points in 23 playoff contests last year translates to 114 points over 82 games. That's despite a 12.9% shooting percentage below his regular-season average of 14.9%.
Even a return to a stronger Atlantic Division shouldn't faze him too much. Kucherov has 27 career points across 26 contests against the Maple Leafs and Sabres, 29 points in 25 games against the Red Wings, and 31 points in 27 outings against the Senators.
Look out, league. He's back.
2. Leon Draisaitl, Edmonton Oilers
2020-21 stats: 56 games played, 31 goals, 53 assists, 32 power-play points
With an incredible 84 points in 56 games last season, Draisaitl would have won his second straight Art Ross Trophy if not for McDavid.
An absolute workhorse, Draisaitl played the third-most minutes among all forwards last season, trailing only Patrick Kane and Mitch Marner. The 25-year-old has played at a 1.5 points-per-game pace for the past two seasons and looks primed to do it again; the Pacific Division features four teams that finished among the league's bottom 10 in goal differential last season.
The German star has also proven he's more than McDavid's running mate. The two freakish forwards spent far more time apart at five-on-five than they did together in 2020-21, and Draisaitl performed better in some categories without McDavid than McDavid did without Draisaitl. The Oilers scored 58% of the goals at five-on-five when Draisaitl was on the ice without McDavid, but they broke even with 31 goals for and 31 goals against when McDavid played at five-on-five without Draisaitl, according to Natural Stat Trick.
There's plenty of overlap in the arguments for Draisaitl and the player who takes No. 1 on this list, so let's move on. Bet you can't guess who it is.
1. Connor McDavid, Oilers
2020-21 stats: 56 games played, 33 goals, 72 assists, 37 power-play points
There are no hot takes to be found here. There's simply no way McDavid and Draisaitl don't belong at the top of this list, and McDavid has the edge after eclipsing 100 points in a shortened campaign. It can be argued that the North Division featured weaker goaltending and defense than the rest of the league last season, but was it really all that bad? After all, the Canadian squads were the only ones that had to defend against Edmonton's terrifying duo.
Regardless, McDavid made history by notching 105 points in 56 games - an outlandish 154-point clip over 82 contests. That doesn't happen by accident. Now, the 2021 Art Ross Trophy and Hart Trophy winner gets to feast on the likes of the Ducks, Kings, and Sharks; he already has 75 points in 56 career games against the California teams.
McDavid led the league in power-play points last season, while Draisaitl finished first in power-play goals with 15. The Oilers boasted the league's top power play in 2020-21, and their success on the man advantage depends entirely on the pair's connection. Luckily for Edmonton, neither player should have much trouble following a return to the Pacific. The Flames, Ducks, Canucks, and Sharks were all firmly in the middle of the pack on the penalty kill last season.
Further fueling the McDavid supremacy argument is the Oilers' free-agency addition of Zach Hyman. The forechecking aficionado put up 33 points in 43 contests with the Maple Leafs in 2020-21 and was a vital part of their top six. With Hyman on the ice at five-on-five, Toronto controlled 52% of the shot attempts and 63% of the high-danger chances, according to Natural Stat Trick. He'll undoubtedly provide a boost for Edmonton's forward corps and can only make McDavid - and Draisaitl - even more dangerous.
It certainly looks like the Art Ross Trophy will be heading to Edmonton for the third straight year.
Honorable mentions:
- Mitch Marner, Maple Leafs
- Auston Matthews, Maple Leafs
- Brad Marchand, Bruins
- Mikko Rantanen, Avalanche
- Patrick Kane, Blackhawks