Column: Bills should win AFC race to top seed, even if Chiefs beat them in Week 5

Just four weeks into the newly lengthened NFL season, it’s borderline dumb to label almost anything a “significant Super Bowl development.”

I’ll do it, anyway.

Buffalo has emerged from the season’s first quarter as the AFC team best positioned to pull away from its divisional rivals. It isn’t just that the Bills (3-1) have shown no major flaws and routed their last three opponents by an average score of 39-7 or that their defense has posted two shutouts and allowed only 44 points through four games.

Look at the rest of the AFC East, where the Patriots and Jets are both breaking in a rookie quarterback and the Dolphins are a mess. Only the Pats, of those three, are a threat to win 10 games. And that will take overcoming the offense’s dearth of game-changing speed.

What about the Chiefs, who’ve hosted the past three AFC Championship Games, gone to the past two Super Bowls and are a 3-point favorite next Sunday to beat Buffalo for the third time in 15 months?

Andy Reid’s program showed growth Sunday, solving a “make them go the long way” defense in Philadelphia, but the Chargers (2-1) and Raiders (3-0) represent better competition for the uneven Chiefs (2-2) than the Bills figure to encounter in the East.

Likewise, in comparison to playoff contenders in the AFC North — where the Ravens, Browns and Bengals are each 3-1 — the Bills have a more favorable road to the No. 1 seed.

The Bills had a poor season opener, losing at home. Their blockers struggled against Steelers edge rusher T.J. Watt. Quarterback Josh Allen didn’t have a good game. The Steelers blocked a punt.

Regrouping, the Bills have shown an improved ground attack and seen Emmanuel Sanders, a veteran receiver they signed in the offseason, mesh with Allen. So, defenses are less able to succeed by double-teaming No. 1 receiver Stefon Diggs.

Buffalo’s defense knows how to play. Yes, the schedule has served up three backup quarterbacks. Get used to it. The schedule won’t get much tougher after the trip to Kansas City.

Following a Week 7 bye, the Bills will face the Dolphins (1-3), Jaguars (0-4) and Jets (1-3). The latter two lean on a rookie quarterback, and Buffalo is 10-0 in its past 10 meetings against QBs with 16 or fewer starts. The dome-dwelling Falcons (1-3) must pay a winter visit to Buffalo in January.

The next Super Bowl will be played in the Kroenke Dome. We’ll see if the Bills can make it two visits to Southern California for a Super Bowl. At the Rose Bowl, where they encountered a loaded Cowboys team, the 1992 Bills lost the 27th Super Bowl by a 52-17 score. It was the third of the franchise’s four consecutive Super Bowl defeats.

October is too soon for Micah Hyde, a Bills safety who had one of the team’s five interceptions Sunday, to assume he can slip down to his San Diego home during Super Bowl week. Week 5 of an 18-week NFL season is too early for Trevor Hoffman, the husband of a former Bills cheerleader, to buy Super Bowl tickets for himself and other San Diego-based Bills fans.

But, if we can get carried away in October, the Bills seem headed to their third consecutive postseason under defensive-minded coach Sean McDermott, whose offensive coordinator, Brian Daboll, an analytics-savvy former Patriots assistant, has clicked with Allen.

The playoff bye that comes with the No. 1 seed would be Buffalo’s first since the 1993 club won the East with a 12-4 record and advanced to the Super Bowl.

Broncos in trouble?

Denver is a 1.5-point favorite to beat the Steelers next week and improve to 4-1.

So, why is the Broncos’ mid-range outlook still cloudy?

Injuries have battered the Denver offense, better allowing opponents to rough up the unit’s players who aren’t injured.

In a 23-7 loss Sunday, the Ravens overwhelmed their patchwork line, concussed QB Teddy Bridgewater and forced 10 punts, Denver’s most at home since 1985.

Already, the team is down 10 starters. They include No. 2 WR Jerry Jeudy, both guards, the team’s fastest receiver in KJ Hamler, CB Pat Surtain and WR-returner Deontae Spencer.

A talented Broncos defense should help the team weather the challenges, but the offense’s growing limitations are an obstacle to a breakthrough season under third-year coach Vic Fangio and rookie GM George Paton.

San Diego connections

Ross Dwelley walled off a Seahawks defensive back Sunday for a 21-yard scoring reception, the fourth and longest TD in the tight end’s four-year career with the 49ers. Three days earlier, his former University of San Diego teammate Jamal Agnew had a career-long 27-yard reception for Jacksonville. Agnew, who played cornerback for the Toreros, has returns of 103 and 109 yards this season.

For La Costa Canyon High alum David Quessenberry, it wasn’t a smooth afternoon in New Jersey. Jets speed rushers troubled RT Quessenberry and several Titans linemates, a factor in New York recording seven sacks of Ryan Tannehill and winning its first game.